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- #21
Everyone here needs to understand something very important...It's not the money supply that's been increased yet.
Only the monetary base has been increased, which isn't inflationary in and of itself until that money is either lent or invested.
We all know banks aren't lending much, and apparently aren't investing much either, so we can pretty much be assured that as of right now, the money supply itself has not increased. In fact, it's probably DECREASED quite a bit in the past year or so, which is why there's been so much loss of employment. Money has become more scarce, which is the main effect of a deflationary environment.
Yes but it seems in the next couple years, there will be inflation. Mortgage rates have already increased a full percentage point over the past month or two, anticipating the inflation?
Oh trust me, I don't doubt that bad inflation is in our future. But I just want to make sure everyone understands the difference between the money supply and the monetary base. Most of the Fed's actions in the past 12 months haven't been inflationary in and of themselves. Stuffing the bank reserves to the gills is not the same thing as the money supply increasing.
If the money supply was increasing as rapidly as the OP stated, we'd already be seeing inflationary effects. There's LESS money right now, not MORE.
But becuase of the fact that inflation is definitely in our future, we haven't seen much of a flight from gold. And rightfully so.
Ah, my friend, this is a distinction without a difference: the money may be hoarded now, but at some point will enter the economy.
Since you state that "bad inflation is in our future," it behooves you to face the questions in the original post.
I can understand your hesitation, but I do respect your opinion.
Based on what you have said, let's assume that you foresee inflation. Now, how do you anticipate the administration fighting same? Which of the three strategies in the OP will it use? And will it be a success?
And, can I assume that you see the price of gold at least keeping pace, if not outstipping, the inflation?
Further, will inflation force our senior citizens from their homes, defeating any goals of the 'stimulus'?