CDZ The Real Estate market is Drying up in the Blue Wall

Discussion in 'Clean Debate Zone' started by william the wie, Feb 26, 2018.

  1. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    This stands to be the first regional Real Estate Market Crash in decades. What will be the partisan, political effects?
     
  2. BuckToothMoron
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    BuckToothMoron Gold Member

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    What are you reading they leads you to say the blue states will see a crash and the red states will be safe?
     
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  3. usmbguest5318
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    usmbguest5318 Gold Member

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    Please precisely define "drying up."
     
  4. Picaro
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    Picaro Gold Member

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    Commercial real estate on Manhattan has tanked, some high end retail properties selling at little over half the price they were a year ago. That's about the extent of my knowledge of it. Several new houses around here in the west side of DFW have been sitting empty for the last four months or so, and we're supposed to a red hot market n stuff.

    In other news, commercial solar is now at around $1.11 per watt, and residential at $2,38 per watt, down considerably, some 60%+, so Trump's tariffs on their import aren't going to hurt at all, despite the noise from the labor racketeers and their lobbyists.
     
  5. usmbguest5318
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    usmbguest5318 Gold Member

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    How public forum participant entreating for a financial discussion does so without citing any credible financial data is beyond me; however, that is what it is. Because of what it is, I don't presently have any comments in direct response to the title claim or the OP comment. Both are too ambiguous and vague for me to do so.

    I will share some information about the real estate market in some "blue" places with which I have familiarity and I'll share this document: What does [H.R.-1-2018] mean for real estate?


    Washington, D.C. -- Bearing in mind that presidential election years that result in a wholly new Administration coming to D.C. create a bump up in sales volume. I, my family, my neighbors, colleagues, and friends who live in D.C. have seen that happen every four or eight years. So many are the unsolicited offers to buy one's house that if one is going to move from D.C. to some other area, it's the time to do it because within the real estate cycle, it's the time one gets top dollar.

    The number of properties on the market, is down 5 percent from one year ago.

    "The number of new listings in D.C. in October [2017] was up 18.9 percent from October 2016 and above the five-year average for an October. Total listings were up 16.1 percent, but supply remains scarce relative to demand. The 1,595 active listings in the District in October represent just a 2.2 month supply....There was a 2.7 month supply of homes for sale in the District in September [2017]. Anything less than a six-month supply is generally considered a seller’s market."

    "Monthly data from Long & Foster Real Estate Inc. shows overall closed sales in the District were down 16 percent from September 2016," with median selling prices down 6 percent."

    The average number of days a listed property stayed on the market before selling was just 30 days, with some D.C. neighborhoods seeing properties selling in less than half that time on average."

    "Despite a lack of listings, D.C. is still a 'move in ready' market for buyers. Buyers today, of whom millennials make up the largest generational group, lack the appetite for home remodeling that previous generations showed. Even at a discount, a fixer upper will likely take longer to sell.”
    (Source)

    [​IMG]

    Martha's Vineyard, MA
    It appears that 2015 was the watershed year for the real estate recovery to finally take hold on-Island. It has been a long many years of meandering since the depths of the real estate recession in 2009 for Martha’s Vineyard real estate. The confluence of events, specifically positive sentiment, heightened levels of quality, well-priced inventory and attractive financing options combined toward making 2015 a very strong year for sales, and have continued to carry forward into 2016 and 2017 respectively.
    • The 4th Quarter realized a significant volume of residential sales on-Island (137) exceeding Q1 (97), Q2 (120) and Q3 (109). Interestingly, our “Fall Market” has become stronger than the customary “Spring Market”. Note that the total number of properties for sale has decreased significantly from the seasonal high of approximately 566 in late August to 415 at this writing. Arguably, the Vineyard market still has excess inventory. With supply of “quality” units falling, prices can more readily increase. This could also be a cue for potential sellers to enter the market with new listings come spring, if not sooner. Please contact us to discuss the salability of your property.
    • In 2017, residential sales on-Island were realized from all price segments totaling 464 units versus the 456 transacted in 2016. Median and average sales prices both increased year-over-year, whereby the former increased by 8.7% from $723,000 to $785,000 and the later increased 10.6% from $1,149,000 to $1,271,000.
    • Sales prices on-Island continue to capture approximately 95% of their asking price, and have on average garnered 124.4% of their respective tax assessment.
    (Source)

    A "red" place with which I have some familiarity:
    Pendleton County, WV -- I can't find any real estate market analysis for this area. I have found only one very basic data trend for it. From 2000 to Q3 2017, Charleston, WV real estate values have appreciated by ~18% (about one percent per year).
    And, yes, I realize that citing specific locales makes my remarks anecdotal with regard to the regional context of the OP-er's title. Insofar as the OP-er doesn't define specifically what area he means by "blue wall," I haven't any other input to offer.
     
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  6. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    The CNBC real estate page is daily so that is my major source for national real estate news. But California style unsolicited bids come in for our house every week or two in the mail. As to Red states Cyclonic activity whether hurricanes or tornadoes on the one hand and floods on the other hand generally provide a more active real estate market that reduces speculation. West Texas that Picaro mentioned is somewhat strange simply because it was it was ground zero for the S&L crash. Last I heard, which is decades old, in 1990 There was 20-30 years inventory of condos in the DFW metro area. Texas did not have the huge collapse of the rest of the country during the meltdown. The real estate speculation laws are that tough in Texas. FL has similar laws dating back to the pre-1926 bubble here. The same is true to a lesser extent for the other Gulf states and GA and SC on the Atlantic coast. The Great Plains west of the Mississippi is a more mixed bag with, if memory serves, SD and KS avoiding the meltdown as well. Post-meltdown residential speculation has been relatively light outside of MN in the plains west of Mississippi and is likely to remain low that in turn limits the amount of tax funded industrial policy in those states.

    The same things that kept the red states avoiding past dangers should also work to avoid future dangers.
     
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  7. Toronado3800
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    Toronado3800 VIP Member

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    Lord I hope you're wrong. Two Recessions in two decades heavily influenced by Real Estate bubbles in a country with no birth rate that is limiting the number of immigrants is amazing. They'll be calls to Federalize the entire mortgage/realtor industry. Those short sighted commission/spiff/quarterly earnings chasing fools.

    If I had a daughter I would hope she'd get into an older profession. For as I say, an honest person in Real Estate is less likely to be found than a camel who even made it soo far to be stuck in the eye of a needle.

    If California tanks that is fine with me though. The place and all its Republican governors (you brought up the partisan/cheerleader talk), just seems at its limit for holding human beings. Same for most of the southwest really. All them retiring hippies that want to move out of Ohio to some place borderline incapable of supporting human life like Arizona are probably are killing the Ohio/blue state real estate market.
     
  8. evenflow1969
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    evenflow1969 Gold Member

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    There is no real estate bubble yet. In most places demand out paces supply which will send prices up. You cna not base a trend on a couple of sales in one area! Current listing time in my area is below 30 days. That is crazy fast!
     
  9. Toronado3800
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    Toronado3800 VIP Member

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    Wow. What part of the world are you in if I may ask?

    In St Louis here its pretty segregated as always. You can take any zip code and see how people really WANT to live there. If you take the metropolitan region as a whole you can trace a racist path to empty devalued neighborhoods.

    The most interesting thing is watching new neighborhoods going up in a region that is not growing. Every new house devalues an older home in a neighboring zip code. Then again that isn't the councilman in charge of rezoning's concern.
     
  10. evenflow1969
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    evenflow1969 Gold Member

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    I am in Central Ohio. The market is on fire here! My sister sold her house in less than a day. I am an appraiser and a realtor. Not as active as I once was but I still do some work in the field. Real Estate is more complicated than the average person understands. There situations where a new development can actually raise the prices of the older homes in the area. Every area is it's own little market. There is no set rule for how one single ammnenity will be accepted in the market. I walk into peoples houses and they ask me shit like how will this deck that I am adding effect the value of my home. Unless I have done an appraisal in nthe neighborhood recently I do not know. It differs per area. It takes time to extract a market adjustment and I do not do it for free! That beong said new subdivisions can adverselyt effect the value of your home, especialy if there are enough of them available to raise the supply above the demand. This is typicaly a short term fall as market forces quickly act to bring ther market back into balance. The builders will see a drop in new home orders and they will respond with less developement bringing prices back to normal after a period of selling the over stock.
     

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