The Phantom's Election Challenge

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by BluePhantom, Nov 5, 2012.

  1. BluePhantom
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    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

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    Well here it is! One day before the main event. The polls are in, the media is in a scramble. Let's make our calls. The challenge is simple. Anyone who predicts the outcome within 10 EVs get's repped by everyone who participates. Anyone whose prediction is more than 25 EVs away from the outcome gets neg repped by everyone who participates.

    The overall winner gets bragging rights and the ability to give everyone else a one finger salute and gloat. :lol:

    We will give Romney the following states: SC, GA, AL, MS, TN, KY, WV, IN, MO, AR, LA, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, UT, ID, MT, WY, AZ, and AK for a total of 191 EVs.

    Obama will be given WA, OR, CA, HI, NM, IL, VT, NY, ME, DC, DE, MD, NJ, CT, RI, and MA for a total of 201 EVs.

    So all you need to do is call the following and do the math: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI.

    For tie breakers....call the spread on the national vote (1st layer), the spread in Ohio (2nd layer), and the spread in Virginia (3rd layer).


    My entry is to come....good luck to all.
     
  2. blastoff
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    blastoff Undocumented Reg. User

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    Same as yours.
     
  3. BluePhantom
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    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

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    Colorado: Romney
    Florida: Romney
    Iowa: Obama
    Michigan: Obama
    Nevada: Obama
    New Hampshire: Romney
    North Carolina: Romney
    Ohio: Romney
    Pennsylvania: Obama
    Virginia: Romney
    Wisconsin: Obama

    Romney: 279
    Obama: 259


    Tie-breakers
    National Vote: Romney +2.7
    Ohio: Romney +0.8
    Virginia: Romney +3.6
     
  4. RespondsWithGif
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    RespondsWithGif Member

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    Colorado: Romney
    Florida: Romney
    Iowa: Romney
    Michigan: Obama
    Nevada: Obama
    North Carolina: Romney
    Ohio Romney
    Pennsylvania: Obama
    Virginia: Romney
    Wisconsin: Obama

    Romney 281
    Obama 257


    National Romney + 3.4
    Ohio Romney + 1
    Virginia Romney + 4.2
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2012
  5. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    Romney 317

    Obama 221

    Im not going to call states. dont really care how the numbers get there. Im thinking Romney will likely have more but im feeling conservative
     
  6. Dr.Traveler
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    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

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    Romney: CO, FL, IA, NC, VA finishing at 263 EV
    Obama: MI, NV, NH, OH, PA, WI finishing at 275 EV.

    Ok, the tie breakers after all:
    National: +1.7 Romney
    Ohio: +2.5 Obama
    Virginia: +2.0 Romney
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2012
  7. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    November 6th, 1890

    In an official declaration the Mormon Church abandoned polygamy.

    An omen?
     
  8. BluePhantom
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    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

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    :lol: Maybe....truth be told this is all going to come down to turnout tomorrow. Ohio is so close it could go either way. I saw Nate Silver already published his "disclaimer article" about how if he is wrong it's because the polls suck and it's not his fault. :lol: At the end of the day it just depends on how many people say "meh...fuck it" and don't show up and who those people support. It could go either way and as goes Ohio so goes the presidency.
     
  9. AceRothstein
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    AceRothstein Gold Member

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    Romney: CO, FL, NC
    Obama: MI, NV, NH, OH, PA, WI, IA, VA

    Tie Breakers
    National: +1.2 Obama
    Ohio: +2.8 Obama
    Virginia: +0.8 Obama
     
  10. Dr.Traveler
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    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

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    I'm not the biggest Nate Silver fan, but kick around the polling aggregate sites and you can see Nate is right. There's not a single bit of data out there to predict there will be a landslide and Ohio seems to be slipping into the leaning blue camp. The data is definitely leaning towards a very narrow Obama victory.

    I almost added to my prediction "An unusual end" as one of the conditions, as I don't think anyone wins Ohio by a margin large enough to avoid the Nov. 17th deadline. [sarcasm]Those 11 days are going to fun times indeed.[/sarcasm]
     

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