"The North Pole Could be Ice Free this Summer" Revisted

Discussion in 'Environment' started by TopGunna, Sep 22, 2008.

  1. TopGunna
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    TopGunna Member

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    You may remember an article posted here earlier this summer, predicting that the North Pole might be ice free this summer.

    Well, the melt season in the Arctic is over for 2008, and this prediction (like many made by the climate alarmism camp) did not come true. In fact, there is 9% more Arctic sea ice that there was at this point last year.

    Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season Officially Over; ice up over 9% from last year Watts Up With That?

    It would seem CO2 warming isn't quite as "relentless" as some folks might like you to believe.
     
  2. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    16 September 2008
    Media Advisory: Arctic sea ice reaches lowest extent for 2008
    This is a joint announcement with NASA and the University of Colorado at Boulder. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) is part of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder. NSIDC scientists provide Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis content, with partial support from NASA.


    The Arctic sea ice cover appears to have reached its minimum extent for the year, the second-lowest extent recorded since the dawn of the satellite era. While slightly above the record-low minimum set in 2007, this season further reinforces the strong negative trend in summertime sea ice extent observed over the past thirty years.

    NSIDC will issue a formal press release at the beginning of October with full analysis of the possible causes behind this year's low ice conditions, particularly interesting aspects of the melt season, the set up going into the winter growth season ahead, and graphics comparing this year to the long-term record.

    NSIDC Press Room: Arctic Sea Ice Now Second-Lowest on Record
     
  3. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    The Southern Oscillation and the solar cycle have significant effects on year-to-year global temperature change. Because both of these natural effects were in their cool phases in 2007, the unusual warmth of 2007 is all the more notable. It is apparent that there is no letup in the steep global warming trend of the past 30 years (see 5-year mean curve in Figure 1a).

    "Global warming stopped in 1998," has become a recent mantra of those who wish to deny the reality of human-caused global warming. The continued rapid increase of the five-year running mean temperature exposes this assertion as nonsense. In reality, global temperature jumped two standard deviations above the trend line in 1998 because the "El Niño of the century" coincided with the calendar year, but there has been no lessening of the underlying warming trend.

    Data @ NASA GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: 2007 Summation
     
  4. TopGunna
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    TopGunna Member

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    So all of a sudden, solar cycles and and other natural variations have significant effects on year to year temperature change?? You don't say....

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    If these factors are all-of-the-sudden important variables in determining climate, then increasing CO2 concentrations must have even less to do with the temperature increases we saw in the 20th century. You can't have it both ways.
     
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  5. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    There are always temperature fluctuations from year to year, but the running mean is continuously upward. And the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere grows and grows. We have increased the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere 39% in the last 200 years.
     
  6. dilloduck
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    dilloduck Diamond Member

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    pretty close to the population increase wouldnt you say ?
     
  7. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    Nowhere near.
     
  8. TopGunna
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    TopGunna Member

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    Running mean? You're kidding, right?

    Temperature by year is a time-series: the measured data is the real, actual data. When running a time-series analysis, any lay statistician knows that you never, under any circumstance, smooth the series through averaging. I mean surely, you must know that smoothing the data in a time-series can induce spurious signals—signals that look real to other analytical methods.

    Statistical shortcomings aside, I am not questioning the increasing levels of atmospheric CO2. I'm questioning the relevance of those increases, when other factors in the climate system have much more explanatory power in predicting temperatures.

    Case-in-point: the North Pole was never ice-free this year. As it turns out, we didn't "melt the pole in 50 short years" as a result of atmospheric CO2.
     
  9. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    Don't worry. We will get there. No question.
     
  10. Gunny
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    Gunny Gold Member

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    Wow. Good comeback. You've been pwned since you opened your flap in this thread.:badgrin:
     

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