The Iranian vs Arabs showdown

Discussion in 'Iran' started by The_Halfmoon, Nov 13, 2009.

  1. The_Halfmoon
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    The_Halfmoon Member

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    This is a very real and ever-growing threat in the middle east which nobody seems to really focus on at all.

    We consistently talk about Israel and the Muslims, and yes, from time to time there is talk about Arab (particularly Gulf Arab) worries over a nuclear Iran. But the threat of a Sunni/Shi'ite conflict divided along ethnic lines is by far the most logical outcome of the US leaving the middle east.

    Iran has imperial ambitions. VERY serious imperial ambitions in the Gulf region. It has developed proxies in Lebanon, Palestine, Somalia, you name it. It also dominates much of Iraq since the US invasion. The Arabs are calling this "The Safavi Plan" (after the dynasty which revived Iranian nationhood and made Shi'ite Islam the official religion of Iran. Here is a text from an Iraqi Shi'ite Sheik (taken from a video which I will also post):

    "The Iranians Have a Plan"

    Sheikh Kazem Al-'Unizan: "The Iranians have a plan, and today it extends to Somalia, to the straits of Bab Al-Mandab, to Yemen, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and even to the kingdom of Jordan - they consider Jordan to be a great enemy.

    "In Lebanon today, national unity is being torn to pieces, and the reason for that is Iranian intelligence. I am not talking about Iranian religious authorities or politicians. I'm talking about Iranian intelligence agencies and the ill-omened Al-Quds Corps, which want to destroy Arab unity.

    "Until now, the Arabs have been incapable of dealing with this attack, because Iran has great capabilities, which it has used in its Safavid plan [the Safavid dynasty ruled Iran between 1501 and 1722, and declared Twelver Shi'a as the religion of the state]. Iran has extended...

    "In Africa... I am a Shi'ite - a sheikh of a Shi'ite tribe. In the past, there was not a single Shi'ite in Africa. Now, there are two million Shi'ites in Senegal alone, in Somalia - half a million Shi'ites, in Sudan - two million Shi'ites, in Egypt - two million Shi'ites.

    [...]

    "The [Sunni-Shi'ite] strife was fueled by the American occupation, and was carried out by the Iranian occupation. As for the tombs [sacred to Shi'ites] - the Sunnis in Iraq have always been faithful servants of Imams Hassan Al-Askari and Ali Al-Hadi. How could any Iraqi, whether Shi'ite or Sunni, believe that the Sunnis of Samarra destroyed these tombs? These tombs were destroyed by mercenaries of the evil neighbor - Iran."

    "The Great Shi'ite Religious Authority, the Martyr Muhammad Baqer Al-Hakim... Was Assassinated By an Iranian Conspiracy"

    "Even the assassination of the great Shi'ite religious authority, the martyr Muhammad Baqer Al-Hakim... He was one of their own, but because he did not implement Iran's agenda, they sent someone to kill him. When this man entered Iraq, he spoke at the main square - and I was present there myself - and he said: 'May Allah forgive the past. The Ba'thists are our sons. We forgive Ba'thists who did wrong. We are willing to accept whoever wants to join us.' The [Iranians] said to him: 'We did not appoint you so you could say that the Ba'thists are our sons. We appointed you so you'd kill the officers of the Iraqi army, the commanders of the air force, and all the tribal leaders and other personalities.' The man was assassinated by an Iranian conspiracy. [...]"

    "I Asked The Head Of The [Somali] Islamic Courts Union... 'Who Supports You?'... He Said... 'Iran Supports Us, Via Hizbullah'"

    "I asked the head of the [Somali] Islamic Courts Union, whom I met in Libya: 'Who supports you?' I expected him to tell me it was Saudi Arabia, but he said: 'No, my brother. Iran supports us, via Hizbullah.' In this case, Iran supports the leader of a Salafi movement in the Horn of Africa.

    "What interest does Iran have in supporting Sunni Salafism? This means Iran has a plan. What interest does Iran have in supporting Hamas and the Islamic Jihad? These are Sunni organizations. Iran's agenda is to carry out its great national plan, and it harbors deep hatred towards Arab Shi'ites who follow Imam Al-Sadeq.

    "I have a simple way of proving it. When the Iranian pilgrims come to Karbala... I came here from Iraq only five days ago... Iranian pilgrims visit the graves of Hussein and his brother Al-Abbas in holy Karbala. It would have been more fitting for these pilgrims to visit the tomb of the father of Hussein and Al-Abbas - Ali bin Abu Talib, in Najaf. They spend 10 days in Karbala, and only half an hour in Najaf. Why do they go to Karbala? Because Hussien's wife was Persian, not because they love Hussein."[...]

    The Iranians Are Not The Kind Of Shi'ites You Are Used To

    "The Iranians are not the kind of Shi'ites you are used to. They are not like the Shi'ites of Iraq. The Shi'ites of Iraq follow the right path, they follow Ali bin Abu Talib they follow Hussein, they are Arabs, they are like the companions of the Prophet, they are the brothers of the Sunnis, and follow the Sunna of the Prophet of Allah."
     
  2. The_Halfmoon
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    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnklR2GHAAY]YouTube - Iraqi shias against Iran[/ame]
     
  3. The_Halfmoon
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    The_Halfmoon Member

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    here is an interesting link on the cold war between Iran and saudi arabia

    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erk22YkMybA]YouTube - MIR: The Saudi-Iranian Neo Cold War[/ame]
     
  4. mightypeon
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    mightypeon Active Member

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    I have to infer that the inner Muslim Power struggle has more players than Iran and Saudi Arabia.
    Turkey is the economically strongest state, and propably has the strongest military too. Egypt represents a relativly educated and big population.

    Saudi Arabia has good, if over expensive, weaponry due to US help, however, they now have sizeable lawless ethnic minorities from India and Pakistan, they are inhibited by maintaining a useless repression aparatus, their population is significantly smaller than those of either concurent, so, apart from Mekka and Oil, they dont have that much going for them.
     
  5. The_Halfmoon
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    I agree, of course the wide picture is far more complicated.

    But the "golden prize" as it were, is ultimately the control over the Persian Gulf, which is the center of the world's oil production.

    Turkey is very powerful, but its influence has been severely hampered as it is perceived as a US ally, and it ultimately has no claim to the Persian Gulf. It is definitely siding with Iran as the two plan to build oil pathways into Europe.

    Although, to be more accurate, you're right. This is more of a Turkey-Iran alliance overpowering the formerly powerful Egyptian-Saudi alliance.

    However, if the US power wanes in the region (as it looks to be doing), I would say the first major conflict will be between those two groups over the resources and ilsands of the Gulf. THEN, of course, the other groups such as Pakistanis and Indians would be a wildcard.
     
  6. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    The classical Arab States (like Saudi-Arabia) are fully coordinating their Mid-East policy with the USA, as the USA is still the security guarantee of these states.
    As long as the USA is practically in Iraq, these Arab states do not have a possibility of pursueing a strategy on Iraq aligned solely on their national interests, instead what they do is aligned on the principle not to harm the US stance in Iraq.
    Maybe the USA dictates them their policy, or their current policy is a compromise between them and the USA.

    It is very likely that once USA is out of Iraq, Iraq will become the battleground (not implicitly meaning real action) between Iran and a coalition of Sunni states led by Saudi-Arabia. Iran off course trying to tighten its Post-2003 status within Iraq and the Sunni states trying to revert that status.
    Once USA is out of Iraq the restrictions for Sunni states to act aligned on their national interests diminishes.

    Turkey also does have interests in Iraq. There is no Iranian-Turkish alliance, as the same opening to Iran by Turkey has also happened to the Sunni states, but that maybe is not so sensational to media reporting. The Turkish opening to the Middle-East is not based on sectarian rules but by economic principles and by that covers all regional states.
    The region is so miserable because there is no serious bilateral trade by the regional countries. Trade relations do have a de-escalating effect, because bilateral trade assures that you do not develop strategies on your neighbours solely aligned on security or geo-political interests, but by wealth maximization.

    The Gulf countries via the Gulf Cooperation Council are currently in the process of a mini EU, connecting their economies and by 2013 establishing a monetarian union.
    The more the Gulf countries integrate the less a need arises for the USA being the security guarantee of this states. Maybe the whole principle of the GCC is based on emancipating from the USA.

    In the Gulf cooperation council are very wealthy countries Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    but except Saudi-Arabia all are tiny and have no capability of influencing-factor on the region on their own.
    So those tiny populated, but very wealthy countries line up behind Saudi-Arabia which boosts Saudi-Arabian capabilities
    Peninsula Shield - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    and fundaments its status of a power authority in the region becoming attractive for regional countries who might see an interest of joinining that block out of future security needs. Saudi Arabia's importance will rise, all circumstances for that are there.


    Citigroup, world's largest bank:
    Turkish GDP growth
    2010: 4.2 %
    2011: 5.5 %
    2012: 5,8%
    2013: 6 %
    Citi maps out rosy estimates for Turkey - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

    It would be very shitty, if Turkey did have regional enemies distracting ressources away from socio-economical development. That off course means not, we do not invest in military, we off course do.
    Besides that, there is neither a Iranian-Turkish alliance nor a SunniArab-Turkish Alliance.
    This is what Turkish foreign minister says:

    "Turkey's axis is Ankara and the soil of Anatolia and this will continue to be so. All other areas will be shaped around this axis"
    FM [ WORLD BULLETIN- TURKEY NEWS, WORLD NEWS ]
     
  7. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    Turkey has already started investigating the Houston base in the US and the Baikonur base in Kazakhstan, leading to cooperation with both the US and Russia in this project.
    Turkey’s plan of action for 2010 within the National Outer Space Program is also ready.
    Turkey, aiming to start astronaut education programs in 2010, is also planning to begin the national launch system and low-cost rocket production experiments during the same year. Turkey is expected to send six astronauts into space in the first leg of the project. Plans for 2011 include solar system and planetary investigations; magnetic field research and establishing a space base; by 2013 the project will develop the ability to scan comets. Finally a space shuttle built in Turkey will be launched in 2014.
    The European Association of Remote Sensing Companies

    In 4 years we will send 6 Turkonauts into space from space center of Ankara with Turkish space shuttle. Till then some research satellites will be sent into space for goodness of mankind.

    The military aspect is sending 7 spy satellites into orbit.
    We will send every year minimum 1 military satellite into space beginning from 2011.
    Till 2017 we will have sent 7 military satellites into orbit.
    First Sythetic Aperture Radar satellite in 2012.
    http://img458.imageshack.us/img458/579/screenshot0131dc5.jpg

    Turkish Airforce has doctrine to go into space.
    A Google-Translated version of Airforce doctrine:
    Google Nachricht
    In short it says for national security all arising space needs of the country must be in national control.


    The navy doctrine is described by Jane's defence as follows:
    The change in the TNFC's strategy to include the high seas is defined in the White Paper as: "[Turkey's] regional geography and the security requirements of the shipping lanes make it necessary in the development of the Turkish naval force to combine an assessment of defensive littoral warfare and open seas operations aimed at the control of the open seas. With the planned military investments the Turkish naval force will be transformed from a force structure that is required for littoral warfare to a force structure required to have a strong say in the open seas."
    Navy (Turkey) - Sentinel Security Assessment - Eastern Mediterranean
    Visiting also the shore next to you with 22 new equippment
    12 MILGEM Milgem class corvette - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    4 TF-2000 TF2000 class frigate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    6 U-214 Type 214 submarine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    The current equipment of Navy places it already on place 4 within NATO in terms of displacement with 268.000 tons
    Turkish Navy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    The existing fleet is also modernized, a report from military.com summing it up as:
    Turkey Specifies a Range of New Ships
     

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