Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE no. 2

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Statistikhengst, Nov 1, 2016.

  1. Pop23
    Offline

    Pop23 Gold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2013
    Messages:
    21,465
    Thanks Received:
    3,535
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Location:
    The barstool down yonder
    Ratings:
    +11,036
    Your reply only bolsters the "don't trust the polls" argument.

    The national polls reflect the nation. California, New York and Illinois, being such huge landslide wins gives her plenty of additional popular votes, but no additional EV. Tsk, tsk. Wasted votes. In total 9.5 million of em across the traditional Blue States

    Trump has some of those as well, but only to the tune of 4.5 million.

    3.9% of the polling is, if the polls are to be believed (Right, we love the polls, correct?), are from the population who's votes don't mean a damn thing.

    And Hillary leads the "wasted vote" category by 3.9% of the total votes cast in 2012.

    Too bad they mean absolutely nothing but a cosmetic victory.

    Bank it Danno.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 2
    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. flacaltenn
    Offline

    flacaltenn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator Gold Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2011
    Messages:
    40,639
    Thanks Received:
    6,436
    Trophy Points:
    1,830
    Location:
    Hillbilly Hollywood, Tenn
    Ratings:
    +21,810
    I'm sure the DATA in the polls is actually meaningful. But the ANALYSIS and REPORTING of them --- not so much. You mentioned Colorado... Heard the latest this morning in one poll.. 39 -- 39 -- Johnson 5 --- Stein 2..

    So obviously -- taking the 3rd and 4th OUT for a moment -- the media thinks you can't add. There is 22% MISSING from the analysis of Clinton vs Trump !!!!

    So here's the deal. The poll is the "database", the "filter" you use to formulate an observation of that data can produce ANY NUMBER of different observations on that database. One reason is -- the "filter" often involves secondary poll metrics. Like --- the CONVICTION strength of the respondents primary choice.

    Now I know from STATE level polling that Johnson is FIRMLY in double digits in Colorado. And if you wanted to "minimize that observation" -- you would apply the poll question of

    "How likely is it that you will vote for this candidate" Scale of 1 to 5.. By taking only only Very Likelies and neglecting the Somewhat likelies and below --- you leave a large uncommitted block on the floor and LOWER the apparent support for people choosing Johnson or Stein as their first choice.

    It's ALL INTERPRETATION. It's to make the HEADLINE for your poll. And it's NOT likely the ONLY definitive conclusion that could be drawn. It's all about the message and getting attention. And the MEDIA never even BOTHERS to add up the numbers and question these "CONCLUSIONS"..

    Relax -- it's all virtual noise... UNLESS you actually READ the methodology and the data. And make YOUR own "observations"...
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2016
  3. Pop23
    Offline

    Pop23 Gold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2013
    Messages:
    21,465
    Thanks Received:
    3,535
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Location:
    The barstool down yonder
    Ratings:
    +11,036
    Colorado had a huge Sanders vote. Maybe the most rabid Sanders voters. They will not turn out for Clinton. They are Johnson voters or simply down ballot voters. They alone will give Colorado to trump.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  4. flacaltenn
    Offline

    flacaltenn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator Gold Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2011
    Messages:
    40,639
    Thanks Received:
    6,436
    Trophy Points:
    1,830
    Location:
    Hillbilly Hollywood, Tenn
    Ratings:
    +21,810
    So much for the headline "Colorado is a dead heat" --- when you look closer. Huh? It's all BullShit. Johnson will get 10 to 12% in that state. And the 2 others can FIGHT for the rest of the MISSING 22%...

    Right now --- and especially AFTER this nasty poo-flinging the partisans call an election -- the loyalty to BOTH the Dems and Reps is TANKING. I firmly believe we're just months away from the point where "independents and 3rd parties" will OUTNUMBER the total of BOTH Dem/Rep party loyalists and registrations. You can see that now in the registrations on the runup to the elections. The "brand names" are clawing their way to irrelevance. Which will make POLLING --- pretty damn impossible if you can't determine a "representative" sample for a poll....
     
  5. flacaltenn
    Offline

    flacaltenn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator Gold Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2011
    Messages:
    40,639
    Thanks Received:
    6,436
    Trophy Points:
    1,830
    Location:
    Hillbilly Hollywood, Tenn
    Ratings:
    +21,810
    Just to be clear -- as that pool of "independents" grows and the party faithful shrinks, you can no longer weight a sampling with an equal number of "republicans and democrats" . Or OVER sample one or the other to reflect the normal voting in that district/region.

    So if you ATTEMPT to choose your sample from avowed Dems and Reps ONLY --- you will be missing almost 1/2 of the electorate who are not "party animals". This effect alone accounts for the under performance of Johnson/Stein in this election. Because if you select SOLELY on 2 party loyalty -- then you'll likely miss the poll estimate by a large margin..
     
  6. Thunderbird
    Offline

    Thunderbird Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2010
    Messages:
    2,467
    Thanks Received:
    369
    Trophy Points:
    130
    Ratings:
    +1,173
    Regarding Gary Johnson - I wonder if he intentionally acts goofy to help out Trump.

     
  7. Pop23
    Offline

    Pop23 Gold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2013
    Messages:
    21,465
    Thanks Received:
    3,535
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Location:
    The barstool down yonder
    Ratings:
    +11,036
    I agree. The polls will need to adjust to changing demographics. It will be interesting to see which did best.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  8. flacaltenn
    Offline

    flacaltenn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator Gold Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2011
    Messages:
    40,639
    Thanks Received:
    6,436
    Trophy Points:
    1,830
    Location:
    Hillbilly Hollywood, Tenn
    Ratings:
    +21,810
    Difference is that Gary came out that day and apologized. That's honesty and humility. Didn't wait for the focus group results to "spin it". And besides -- He DID answer the question. And the LParty has been ABSOLUTELY correct and consistent on MidEast policy for 30 years.

    Wanna see Trump mocking a retard? I think you already have. Did HE apologize?
     
  9. Thunderbird
    Offline

    Thunderbird Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2010
    Messages:
    2,467
    Thanks Received:
    369
    Trophy Points:
    130
    Ratings:
    +1,173
    I'm suggesting Johnson did know what Aleppo is. He may be sabotaging his own candidacy because he recognizes that Hillary is a threat to liberty.

    If this is true Johnson is admirable. Sacrificing himself for his country.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2016
  10. Thunderbird
    Offline

    Thunderbird Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2010
    Messages:
    2,467
    Thanks Received:
    369
    Trophy Points:
    130
    Ratings:
    +1,173
    By the way Trump did not mock a reporter for being disabled.

     

Share This Page