Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE no. 2

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Statistikhengst, Nov 1, 2016.

  1. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    HERE.

    All the numbers through 31 October, 2016, t-minus 8 days.

    Facit: Clinton is still verifiably ahead, considerably so in the electoral vote.

    Without tossups:
    Clinton 328 / Trump 210 / Margin: Clinton +118 EV

    With tossups:
    Clinton 288 / Trump 198 / Tossups 52 / Margin: Clinton +90 EV

     
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  2. Thunderbird
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    Thunderbird Gold Member

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    The map keeps changing: RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

    If Hillary loses key states like North Carolina and Colorado she's done for.

    Trump is ahead in the latest poll in North Carolina.

    Hillary is ahead by only 1% in the latest poll in Colorado.

    Consider:
    • At this point in elections people usually abandon 3rd party candidates. Gary Johnson is the most important 3rd party candidate in this race and his libertarian voters will probably go for Trump rather than Hillary.
    • As we get close to the wire Never-Trump Republicans will realize what a drunken crazy arrogant lying clueless clown Hillary is and they'll back Trump.
    • There's also the Brexit factor. Trump may outperform his poll numbers. When a cause or candidate is demonized (and the corporate media has demonized Trump incessantly!) voters are shy about expressing support for the cause or candidate.
    • Trump voters are much more enthusiastic.
    I think it will be a close race.

    In the end will the people support the corrupt elite as personified by the Clintons who have betrayed the American people again and again? Or will they try someone new?
     
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    Last edited: Nov 1, 2016
  3. Pop23
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    Pop23 Gold Member

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    These polls are more than a bit skewed, even if they don't oversample dems or women.

    In a state like California, State polls give Hillary a 20% lead. Using the 2012 election as the model, then that alone skews the poll by 2.6 million votes, or 2% on the national level. When you do the same thing with all the State polling, factoring in where each candidate should win, Clinton has a total of 9.5 million votes over what is needed to win that state, and Trump has 4.5 million votes over what he needs to win his states.

    Those 5 million vote different skews the polls by 3.9% on a national level, but mean absolutely nothing.

    The pollsters do not quit polling in a State just because it's in the bag for one candidate or the other, so the national polls are skewed by 3.9% for Clinton. The closer to a tie race means that those battleground States have a higher likelihood of going Trump. If on election day, the polls show a slight Trump lead, he will win the EV handily.
     
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  4. NLT
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    NLT Platinum Member

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  5. kiwiman127
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    kiwiman127 Comfortably Moderate Supporting Member

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  6. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Uhm, no.
     
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  7. mamooth
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    mamooth Gold Member Supporting Member

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  8. Pop23
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    Pop23 Gold Member

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    Uhm, yep
     
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  9. Pop23
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    Pop23 Gold Member

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    I find It funny how a statistical guy does not realize that California skews the national polls by 2.6 million votes.

    That's 2.6 million votes out of a possible 129 million total votes max, or 1.8% of the entire vote, which has zero implication on the EC.

    Factor all of those other Blue State overvotes, deduct the Red State overvotes and the polls are overestimating Clintons lead by 3.9% and the swing states are not yet factored in.

    Clinton needs a national lead of 3.9% to compete in the swing states.

    At a 2% lead as of today, she loses the majority of those states and blue states start turning red.
     
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  10. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    NO.

    It does not.

    In fact, California polls (the aggregate) were off 7.6 points to the RIGHT in 2012.

    So, no.

    Learn something practical for a change: simple math.
     
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