Sound of Settled Science: Polar Bear Edition

[Weatherman2020]

Poley Bears want you over for dinner.

There are too many polar bears in parts of Nunavut and climate change hasn’t yet affected any of them, says a draft management plan from the territorial government that contradicts much of conventional scientific thinking.

The proposed plan — which is to go to public hearings in Iqaluit on Tuesday — says that growing bear numbers are increasingly jeopardizing public safety and it’s time Inuit knowledge drove management policy.

“Inuit believe there are now so many bears that public safety has become a major concern,” says the document, the result of four years of study and public consultation.

'So many bears:' Draft plan says Nunavut polar bear numbers unsafe

 

[Crick]

Polar bear population is forecast to decline by 30% by the year 2050, due to loss of habitat (from ice melt) and hunting.

You cannot deny that polar bears feeding and reproductive habits require ice. You cannot deny that ice cover in the Arctic is shrinking. Ergo...

 

[fncceo]

You cannot deny that polar bears feeding and reproductive habits require ice.

Only my drinking habits require ice.

 

[westwall]

Polar bear population is forecast to decline by 30% by the year 2050, due to loss of habitat (from ice melt) and hunting.

You cannot deny that polar bears feeding and reproductive habits require ice. You cannot deny that ice cover in the Arctic is shrinking. Ergo...

Forecast by whom? So far every climatologists claim regarding polar bears has been laughably wrong.

Sent from my SM-G892A using USMessageBoard.com mobile app

 

[Sunsettommy]

Polar bear population is forecast to decline by 30% by the year 2050, due to loss of habitat (from ice melt) and hunting.

You cannot deny that polar bears feeding and reproductive habits require ice. You cannot deny that ice cover in the Arctic is shrinking. Ergo...

A Modeling claim that is non falsifiable. It is already wrong anyway since the big drop of Arctic ice extent (in the first decade) came 25 years early , yet Polar Bear Population CONTINUED to increase despite that drop to the decadal low in 2007 which is now over TEN YEARS ago.

How can you explain the obvious failure?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Polar bear population is forecast to decline by 30% by the year 2050, due to loss of habitat (from ice melt) and hunting.

You cannot deny that polar bears feeding and reproductive habits require ice. You cannot deny that ice cover in the Arctic is shrinking. Ergo...

ergo more polar bears than ever and snow is still not a thing of the past

 

[Sunsettommy]

Crick also wrote this incorrect statement:

"You cannot deny that polar bears feeding and reproductive habits require ice. You cannot deny that ice cover in the Arctic is shrinking. Ergo."

Actually they get most of their calories for the year from March to July time frame where there are still adequate ice cover to use , and den mostly on LAND.

 

[Crick]

Ringed and bearded seals feed on benthic organisms (living on the bottom). Thus they cannot feed in waters much deeper than 200 feet. Polar bears feed primarily on those seals. As the ice melts its edge will move away from shore and into deeper water. Problem. Male and female polar bears meet and mate in areas of the best seal-hunting. Problem.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Ringed and bearded seals feed on benthic organisms (living on the bottom). Thus they cannot feed in waters much deeper than 200 feet. Polar bears feed primarily on those seals. As the ice melts its edge will move away from shore and into deeper water. Problem. Male and female polar bears meet and mate in areas of the best seal-hunting. Problem.

There are plenty of Seals for the Bears to eat going into July with still plenty of ice cover:

Buffet time for polar bears – spring/early summer is for eating baby seals

Spring is the busiest and most important season for polar bears: it is the most important feeding period and it is also when mating occurs. The fat that polar bears put on during the spring and early summer is critical for their survival over the rest of the year and for females, determines whether they can successfully produce cubs the following year.

Mothers and new cubs emerge from their winter dens in late March to early April and those who have chosen to den on land soon head towards the sea ice. For a fabulous photo of a polar bear female and her two young cubs, just out of their winter den, feeding on a bearded seal pup, pop over here. All other bears, including females with older cubs, will already be on the ice, feeding on the first newborn ice seals of the season and any other seals they can catch."

By this time most Seal pups have weaned and gone into deeper water and more often away from the Ice shelf, making it harder for the Bears to continue eating at the frenzied rate of Spring. Here is the NSIDC ice chart showing plenty of Ice near the beginning of July when the main Seal Eating Season has winded down to a much lower level..



How did Polar Bears, Eskimos survive centuries of little to NO summer ice during the early part of the Holocene?

When are you EVER going to address it?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Did Guam just tip over?

 

[Sunsettommy]

WWF

Polar Bear Diet

"Food can be hard to come by for polar bears for much of the year. The bear puts on most of its yearly fat reserves between late April and mid-July to maintain its weight in the lean seasons."

 

[Crick]

Ringed and bearded seals feed on benthic organisms (living on the bottom). Thus they cannot feed in waters much deeper than 200 feet. Polar bears feed primarily on those seals. As the ice melts its edge will move away from shore and into deeper water. Problem. Male and female polar bears meet and mate in areas of the best seal-hunting. Problem.

There are plenty of Seals for the Bears to eat going into July with still plenty of ice cover:

Buffet time for polar bears – spring/early summer is for eating baby seals

Spring is the busiest and most important season for polar bears: it is the most important feeding period and it is also when mating occurs. The fat that polar bears put on during the spring and early summer is critical for their survival over the rest of the year and for females, determines whether they can successfully produce cubs the following year.

Mothers and new cubs emerge from their winter dens in late March to early April and those who have chosen to den on land soon head towards the sea ice. For a fabulous photo of a polar bear female and her two young cubs, just out of their winter den, feeding on a bearded seal pup, pop over here. All other bears, including females with older cubs, will already be on the ice, feeding on the first newborn ice seals of the season and any other seals they can catch."

By this time most Seal pups have weaned and gone into deeper water and more often away from the Ice shelf, making it harder for the Bears to continue eating at the frenzied rate of Spring. Here is the NSIDC ice chart showing plenty of Ice near the beginning of July when the main Seal Eating Season has winded down to a much lower level..

When are you EVER going to address it?

How well is this process going to work when there is virtually no sea ice?

And, I'm not surprised you haven't noticed this, but I have never started a thread about polar bears. I respond to those who claim that a loss of sea ice won't hurt them, but that's the extent of my ursamania.

 

[Pete7469]

Something asinine

How did Polar Bears, Eskimos survive centuries of little to NO summer ice during the early part of the Holocene?

When are you EVER going to address it?

As soon as the programmer enters the talking point into the algorithm the bot will parrot the agitprop until the hard drive crashes and it needs to be replaced.


.

 

[Crick]

As soon as the programmer enters the talking point into the algorithm the bot will parrot the agitprop until the hard drive crashes and it needs to be replaced.

Let us know when you actually have something relevant to say.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Ringed and bearded seals feed on benthic organisms (living on the bottom). Thus they cannot feed in waters much deeper than 200 feet. Polar bears feed primarily on those seals. As the ice melts its edge will move away from shore and into deeper water. Problem. Male and female polar bears meet and mate in areas of the best seal-hunting. Problem.

There are plenty of Seals for the Bears to eat going into July with still plenty of ice cover:

Buffet time for polar bears – spring/early summer is for eating baby seals

Spring is the busiest and most important season for polar bears: it is the most important feeding period and it is also when mating occurs. The fat that polar bears put on during the spring and early summer is critical for their survival over the rest of the year and for females, determines whether they can successfully produce cubs the following year.

Mothers and new cubs emerge from their winter dens in late March to early April and those who have chosen to den on land soon head towards the sea ice. For a fabulous photo of a polar bear female and her two young cubs, just out of their winter den, feeding on a bearded seal pup, pop over here. All other bears, including females with older cubs, will already be on the ice, feeding on the first newborn ice seals of the season and any other seals they can catch."

By this time most Seal pups have weaned and gone into deeper water and more often away from the Ice shelf, making it harder for the Bears to continue eating at the frenzied rate of Spring. Here is the NSIDC ice chart showing plenty of Ice near the beginning of July when the main Seal Eating Season has winded down to a much lower level..

When are you EVER going to address it?

How well is this process going to work when there is virtually no sea ice?

And, I'm not surprised you haven't noticed this, but I have never started a thread about polar bears. I respond to those who claim that a loss of sea ice won't hurt them, but that's the extent of my ursamania.

Ringed and bearded seals feed on benthic organisms (living on the bottom). Thus they cannot feed in waters much deeper than 200 feet. Polar bears feed primarily on those seals. As the ice melts its edge will move away from shore and into deeper water. Problem. Male and female polar bears meet and mate in areas of the best seal-hunting. Problem.

There are plenty of Seals for the Bears to eat going into July with still plenty of ice cover:

Buffet time for polar bears – spring/early summer is for eating baby seals

Spring is the busiest and most important season for polar bears: it is the most important feeding period and it is also when mating occurs. The fat that polar bears put on during the spring and early summer is critical for their survival over the rest of the year and for females, determines whether they can successfully produce cubs the following year.

Mothers and new cubs emerge from their winter dens in late March to early April and those who have chosen to den on land soon head towards the sea ice. For a fabulous photo of a polar bear female and her two young cubs, just out of their winter den, feeding on a bearded seal pup, pop over here. All other bears, including females with older cubs, will already be on the ice, feeding on the first newborn ice seals of the season and any other seals they can catch."

By this time most Seal pups have weaned and gone into deeper water and more often away from the Ice shelf, making it harder for the Bears to continue eating at the frenzied rate of Spring. Here is the NSIDC ice chart showing plenty of Ice near the beginning of July when the main Seal Eating Season has winded down to a much lower level..

When are you EVER going to address it?

How well is this process going to work when there is virtually no sea ice?

And, I'm not surprised you haven't noticed this, but I have never started a thread about polar bears. I respond to those who claim that a loss of sea ice won't hurt them, but that's the extent of my ursamania.

Already posted this THREE times, asked YOU about it TWICE, you ignore it:

"How did Polar Bears, Eskimos survive centuries of little to NO summer ice during the early part of the Holocene?

When are you EVER going to address it?"

Stop ducking it, Crick!

 

[Crick]

Stop ducking what? Your fantasies? What data do you have? Zip. You have no idea what the impact of that climate was on polar bears. And, as I stated, it took thousands of years to get through those changes. That allows time to adapt, to relocate, to evolve. Your belief that it is applicable to today's circumstance is willful blindness.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Stop ducking what? Your fantasies? What data do you have? Zip. You have no idea what the impact of that climate was on polar bears. And, as I stated, it took thousands of years to get through those changes. That allows time to adapt, to relocate, to evolve. Your belief that it is applicable to today's circumstance is willful blindness.

Still you don't address it, still no evidence to support it comes from you...….

Here is a chart based on the Greenland Ice core for the region, showing significant variability.

LINK

I have posted published papers about little to NO Summer ice right here in the forum a few times already.

Journal of Quaternary Science

Holocene variability in sea ice cover, primary production, and Pacific-Water inflow and climate change in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas (Arctic Ocean)

Ruediger Stein,et al

Version of Record online: 27 FEB 2017

ABSTRACT

In this study, we present new detailed biomarker-based sea ice records from two sediment cores recovered in the Chukchi Sea and the East Siberian Sea. These new biomarker data may provide new insights on processes controlling recent and past sea ice changes. The biomarker proxy records show (i) minimum sea ice extent during the Early Holocene, (ii) a prominent Mid-Holocene short-term high-amplitude variability in sea ice, primary production and Pacific-Water inflow, and (iii) significantly increased sea ice extent during the last ca. 4.5k cal a BP. This Late Holocene trend in sea ice change in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas seems to be contemporaneous with similar changes in sea ice extent recorded from other Arctic marginal seas. The main factors controlling the millennial variability in sea ice (and surface-water productivity) are probably changes in surface water and heat flow from the Pacific into the Arctic Ocean as well as the long-term decrease in summer insolation. The short-term centennial variability observed in the high-resolution Middle Holocene record is probably related to solar forcing. Our new data on Holocene sea ice variability may contribute to synoptic reconstructions of regional to global Holocene climate change based on terrestrial and marine archives.

LINK

The words, Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice age, 20th Century were added onto the chart above by Kenneth Richards.

Your claim of warming rate is greater now than during early party of the Holocene is patently absurd and the CURRENT rate are similar to past periodic warming rates back to the mid 1800's. Told you that several times that too, yet you persist in your fantasy.

Q&A: Professor Phil Jones

"A - Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical?

An initial point to make is that in the responses to these questions I've assumed that when you talk about the global temperature record, you mean the record that combines the estimates from land regions with those from the marine regions of the world. CRU produces the land component, with the Met Office Hadley Centre producing the marine component.

Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different (see numbers below).

I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998.

So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other.

Here are the trends and significances for each period:"

LINK

You suffer from serious memory problems?

 

[Crick]

Greenland ice cores are NOT representative. If you want to see a good reconstruction of Holocene temperatures, the obvious choice is Shakun and Marcott

A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years

and

https://www.researchgate.net/public...d_Global_Temperature_for_the_Past_11300_Years

 

[Sunsettommy]

Greenland ice cores are NOT representative. If you want to see a good reconstruction of Holocene temperatures, the obvious choice is Shakun and Marcott

A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years

and

https://www.researchgate.net/public...d_Global_Temperature_for_the_Past_11300_Years

Not this garbage again!

There are several serious problems with the chart YOU posted, if you had any science skills you would know it is junk, since grafting very different PROXY data sets together, adding some instrumental data at the end is statistical malpractice. They have very different resolution sets, thus incompatible with each other.

Secondly Shakun paper was long ago exposed as garbage since he used many different proxies for the same time frame, yet they provide very different warming results and dissimilar resolution, and his fatal dishonest misuse of the CO2 data.

"I fear that this set of proxies is perfectly useless for that. How on earth could you claim anything about the timing of the warming from this group of proxies? It’s all over the map."

=================================

Marcott produced a statement that destroys part of his published claim:

"20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions."

You are waaaay out of date.

Meanwhile the GISP2 data are all based on ICE CORES from the Greenland area, which makes it a good stable Proxy measure. Vastly better than the hodgepodge garbage you used since it is stable, Resolution is stable and quite valued by the science community.

By the way I was talking about the Arctic region only because that is where the Polar Bears and the Ice are located, thus GISP2 is the BEST possible choice.

 

[Crick]

Why don't you have a look at the work of Shakun and Marcott and count the citations. YOU obviously don't know what the fuck you're talking about. Mating different datasets where necessary and completely characterized, is acceptable and widely used.