specualtors believe that the demand is up and the supply is threatened.
Another possible explanation is that traders are human, times are volatile and scary, so pricing is erratic. I like your explanation better for three reasons. First, demand has been down becuause of the contracting economy and as things loosen up demand will (as usual) increase faster than supply. Another reason is crazy politics in the middle east. The third cause is even crazier politics in the US.
The most unreasonable 'reason' given is Obama's goofy line that oil's up because of greedy speculators making money cheating. We're supposed to believe that somehow speculators are spending their own money to buy oil for more than it's worth (which bids up the price), so they can sell the oil (without bidding back down the price?!?) at a profit (to people who don't trade in oil?!?).
Marxists are crazy.
I suspect that Obama probably said more than just what you or I read, and this is nothing more than character assassination by carefully editing what he said such that his point was lost.
I suspect his point was that speculators are driving up the price beyond what it should really be because (again I suspect) he's thinking that the price is a bubble.
And I suspect he's right about that, too. The price isn't based on supply demand, or even future supply demand. It's likely based on fear (and greed) about the future.
But as John Maynard Keynes reminded investors regarding economic criseses:
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
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