More bad news

[asterism]

April is turning out to be the cruelest month for jobless claims.


New filings for jobless benefits unexpectedly jumped 25,000 in the April 23 week. The increase could hint that businesses are cutting labor costs to offset the prolonged surge in raw-material costs. But the strength of the U.S. recovery — which slowed in the first quarter — is highly dependent on stronger job growth.

New filings for jobless benefits were in a steady decline since August. But after falling to as low as 385,000 in the April 2 week, they have taken a turn in the wrong direction. New claims have been above 400,000 for three weeks in a row.

Rise in Jobless Claims Bears Watching - Real Time Economics - WSJ

 

[waltky]

Obama havin' problems gettin' it up - growth that is...

High gas, food costs grind back growth
Thursday, April 28, 2011 - State budget cuts also nick recovery

Growth in the U.S. economy slowed sharply to a 1.8 percent pace in the winter quarter from 3.1 percent at the end of last year as budget cuts at all levels of government and a surge in oil prices weighed on the economy, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The jump in oil prices to more than $100 a barrel, and soaring prices for corn, wheat and other commodities, caused a near doubling of the inflation rate to 3.8 percent from 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010. That meant that consumers had less spending power, causing their contribution to economic growth to decline to 2.7 percent from 4 percent.

“Sharply higher gasoline and food prices are taking a toll on growth,” said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities. He said that caused consumers to backpedal after they fueled robust spending growth at the end of last year. ”Retail gasoline prices have risen roughly 85 cents since the start of the year, while food prices were up an annualized 7.5 percent” during the quarter, he said. Still, “consumer spending held up reasonably well despite those challenges.”

Gas prices topped $5 a gallon at a station in Northwest Washington last week. The high prices, which have risen roughly 85 cents since the start of the year, are taking a toll on the economic recovery.

While consumers and businesses got zapped by higher inflation, governments faced with unsupportable debts at every level slashed spending. The collective drop of 5.2 percent in government spending was the largest since 1983, provoking a lively political debate about the role government spending plays in the economy.

Republicans such as Rep. Tom Price of Georgia, the House Republican Policy Committee chairman, continued to call for more spending cuts, insisting that they will help the economy by spurring faster growth in the private sector. But Democrats and liberal groups said the report shows that cutting spending too fast will throttle the economic recovery.

MORE

See also:

Pessimism on economy puts a crimp in Obama's campaign
04/29/11 - Pessimism over the nation’s economy is hampering President Obama’s efforts to build momentum for his reelection campaign.

The Commerce Department on Thursday reported the economy grew at a sluggish 1.8 percent in the first three months of 2011, the same day a poll found voter confidence in the president’s stewardship of the economy hitting a new low. The Marist-McClatchy poll found that only 40 percent of registered voters approve of Obama’s handling of the economy, with a considerably higher number of Democrats and independents raising doubts.

Since January, the number of Democrats who disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy has nearly doubled, growing 12 percentage points to 27 percent, while the percentage of independents casting doubt has grown from 50 percent in January to 63 percent, the poll found. Both numbers will be troubling to a White House that needs to turn out its base in 2012 and win a significant number of independent voters. The state of the economy is almost always a decisive factor for presidents seeking reelection.

The dropping poll numbers coincide with rising gas prices, worries about inflation and a series of debates on the federal debt that paint a gloomy picture of the nation’s finances. Rising prices stalled economic growth in the first quarter as consumers hit by higher gas and food prices curtailed their spending. Headlines from Washington about accruing record deficits, raising taxes and curtailing Medicare and Medicaid benefits are also almost certainly affecting confidence about the economy and dragging down Obama’s poll numbers.

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[waltky]

Shoulda put that bank bailout in the unemployment fund...

Strapped states trying to trim jobless benefits
22 May`11 WASHINGTON — To save money, cutting the length of time that payments are offered

Some of the states that have drained their unemployment insurance funds are cutting the number of weeks that a laid-off worker can count on those benefits. Legislators are trying to limit tax increases for businesses to replenish the pool and are hoping the federal government keeps stepping in when the economy slumps. Michigan, Missouri and Arkansas recently reduced the maximum number of weeks that the jobless can get state unemployment benefits. Florida is on the verge of doing so. Unemployment in those states ranges from 7.8 percent in Arkansas to 11.1 percent in Florida.

The benefit cuts come as legislatures deal with the damage that the recession inflicted on state unemployment insurance programs. The sharp increase in the number of people who lost their jobs drained the reservoir of money dedicated to paying out benefits. About 30 states borrowed more than $44 billion from the federal government to continue payments to laid-off workers. Many states hastened the insolvency of their funds by keeping balances at historically low levels going into the downturn.

The burden of replenishing the funds and paying off the loans will fall primarily on businesses through higher taxes, but the benefit cuts are an effort to limit the tax increases. States usually provide up to 26 weeks of benefits to laid-off workers. Michigan and Missouri have cut that to a maximum 20 weeks. Arkansas went to 25. Florida is considering a more complex change that would link the duration of benefits to the strength of the economy. The cap would range from 23 weeks during periods of double-digit unemployment to as low as 12 weeks during periods of extremely low unemployment. The Florida Legislature approved the changes, but the governor hasn't signed the bill.

Once state benefits are exhausted, laid-off workers often are eligible for 13 weeks to 20 weeks of extended benefits. States and the federal government usually split the cost for that program. During recessions, Congress typically takes the aid a step further, providing several more months of emergency benefits entirely paid for by the federal government. The actions taken by legislatures apply specifically to state benefits, but also will reduce future federal benefits because the changes affect the formula used to calculate them.

More Strapped states trying to trim jobless benefits - Business - Consumer news - msnbc.com

 

[boedicca]

Worst Recovery EVAH, courtesy of Obamanomics.

 

[william the wie]

Worst Recovery EVAH, courtesy of Obamanomics.

Don't disagree with the first part but since Obama left most of the Bush economic team in charge the second part I find dubious. The last president to endorse free markets with actions was probably Cleveland. Obama is no worse than Bush the elder at screwing up the economy just in a much worse situation with the EU and Far East bubbles ready to pop.

 

[rightwinger]

Unemployment falls in 39 states in April; jobs added in 42 - USATODAY.com

The Labor Department said Friday that the unemployment rate dropped in 39 states in April from a month earlier. That's an improvement from March when 34 states had reported decreases. The rate rose in three states and the District of Columbia. It was unchanged in eight states.

Employers added workers in 42 states. Only eight states and the District of Columbia lost jobs last month.

Nationally, businesses have added more than 250,000 jobs per month, on average, in the past three months

 

[B. Kidd]

Worst Recovery EVAH, courtesy of Obamanomics.

Don't disagree with the first part but since Obama left most of the Bush economic team in charge the second part I find dubious. The last president to endorse free markets with actions was probably Cleveland. Obama is no worse than Bush the elder at screwing up the economy just in a much worse situation with the EU and Far East bubbles ready to pop.

When do you see these bubbles popping?

 

[Jessica Blume]

Gas is not going up as much as the dollar just loses its purchasing power. The dollar is just measured against the Euro and other competing world fiat currencies. When they say the dollar is up against the Euro, it isn't really worth anything more than it was before. It just has not been devalued as much as the fiat currency it is compared to.

 

[sparky]

Unemployment falls in 39 states in April; jobs added in 42 - USATODAY.com

The Labor Department said Friday that the unemployment rate dropped in 39 states in April from a month earlier. That's an improvement from March when 34 states had reported decreases. The rate rose in three states and the District of Columbia. It was unchanged in eight states.

Employers added workers in 42 states. Only eight states and the District of Columbia lost jobs last month.

Nationally, businesses have added more than 250,000 jobs per month, on average, in the past three months

watch that fine print....>
Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment

Footnotes
(1) Beginning in January 2011, this series reflects a change to the collection of data on unemployment duration

 

[pinqy]

Unemployment falls in 39 states in April; jobs added in 42 - USATODAY.com

The Labor Department said Friday that the unemployment rate dropped in 39 states in April from a month earlier. That's an improvement from March when 34 states had reported decreases. The rate rose in three states and the District of Columbia. It was unchanged in eight states.

Employers added workers in 42 states. Only eight states and the District of Columbia lost jobs last month.

Nationally, businesses have added more than 250,000 jobs per month, on average, in the past three months

watch that fine print....>
Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment

Footnotes
(1) Beginning in January 2011, this series reflects a change to the collection of data on unemployment duration

Yeah, the change was that on the old questionairre, the max length of unemployment you could enter was 2 years, effectively making the category "2 years or more." Now, it's up to 5 years. The ONLY thing this change affected was the mean duration (making it longer). It didn't change the median or anything else. Definitely an improvement given that during the recession and post recession, duration of unemployment was much longer than historically.

 

[editec]

I cannot imagine that the spike in gas prices is helping the employment picture much.

And given that half the East Coast has been basically having a cold and constantly wet spring (I think I've seen about an hour of sun in the last 6 weeks) that can't be good for seasonal work, either.

 

[midcan5]

Are you buying American products and speaking up when a call for service goes to India or ? Are you shopping in stores that pay a fair wage and tipping well, are you not letting gas prices stand in the way of other purchases, Americans can cure the cold if they have the will to tell corporations outsourcing may be helping your bottom line but it ain't helping America. Consider only Nike who make nothing here but lots of money. Suppose we stop buying their products until they supported America? (I stopped long ago)

 

[daveman]

It's Bush's fault.

 

[william the wie]

Worst Recovery EVAH, courtesy of Obamanomics.

Don't disagree with the first part but since Obama left most of the Bush economic team in charge the second part I find dubious. The last president to endorse free markets with actions was probably Cleveland. Obama is no worse than Bush the elder at screwing up the economy just in a much worse situation with the EU and Far East bubbles ready to pop.

When do you see these bubbles popping?

I really don't know. The EU debt crisis is in the news big time so competent preparation is being done there.

But it is the breakpoints of harder to quantify problems that will blindside us. Hydro electric and irrigation has been overdone worldwide so that is going to blow up. So that makes energy and food extremely vulnerable to wild price fluctuations that are going to blow up economies. The US as the most dependable exporter of food and coal while being the most dependable importer of oil and manufactured goods makes the value of the dollar critical.

The world needs a weak dollar for cheap coal to build stuff to buy US food but it needs a strong dollar for cheap oil and someplace to export to. With peak oil in the rearview mirror US and Australian coal exports are critical.

Likewise food is real important but the Russian breadbasket although the world's largest is also among the most variable of food exporters. So the US is the big food exporter until and unless land reform makes it through the Russian bureaucracy.

So, when and where the hydro-electric and irrigation bubble pops is the big question and the answer to that is I do not know.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Unemployment falls in 39 states in April; jobs added in 42 - USATODAY.com

The Labor Department said Friday that the unemployment rate dropped in 39 states in April from a month earlier. That's an improvement from March when 34 states had reported decreases. The rate rose in three states and the District of Columbia. It was unchanged in eight states.

Employers added workers in 42 states. Only eight states and the District of Columbia lost jobs last month.

Nationally, businesses have added more than 250,000 jobs per month, on average, in the past three months

watch that fine print....>
Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment

Footnotes
(1) Beginning in January 2011, this series reflects a change to the collection of data on unemployment duration

Here's a real comfort

Sorry, the page you're looking for can't be found;
/cps/duration.htm.
Please enter a keyword(s) in the search field below. Or, try one of the links.

Duration of unemployment in the CPS.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

It's Bush's fault.

And Corporations too, especially the Big ones.