So how are those predictions panning out there?

Discussion in 'Environment' started by westwall, Jul 8, 2010.

  1. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Turns out not too damn good:lol::lol::lol: If we had made a prediction like this and had it turn out as it did, why we would be called charlatans...or even worse psychics:lol::lol:
    1969 to now and the predictions were off by a measly 1200 percent in one case

    "Rather than spiking by 3.9 C (7 degrees F), the actual temperature increase between 1969 and the year 2000 was a practically imperceptible 0.3 C. Which means the experts were off by 1200 percent.

    And 2950 percent in the other
    "Most embarrassing of all, rather than rising 305 cm (10 feet), sea level increased by a paltry 10 cm (3.9 inches). Which means the experts overestimated that particular danger by 2950 percent."

    No Frakking Consensus: 1969 Climate Predictions Miss by a Mile

    Yep real good predictions there people! Keep it up!
     
  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Very good. Not a single name as to who made that prediction.

    The scientific consensus on that subject for that time was actually written in an article published by the PNAS in 1975, in which they concluded that at that time, they simply did not know enough about the forcings in climate to make accurate predictions.

    In fact, Dr. Hansen's predictions made in 1988 were pretty accurate until 2000. Then the warming accelerated ahead of the predictions, particularly in the Arctic.
     
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  3. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Geez old fraud you make it too easy sometimes. Had you bothered to actually READ the memo you would have seen that Dr. Hugh Heffner (I'm not making this up) and Dr. Bob White (at that time head of the US Weather Bureau) were the authors of that particular memo.

    If you're going to reply to items like this in the future I suggest you actually read them first so that you don't present yourself as a complete fool. Remember the old addage "it is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."


    And really you think Hansens 1988 predictions to congress were accurate? Well lets see what the numbers show us shall we?

    http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/06/gret-moments-in.html

    Looks like he was pretty far off the mark all the way around.
     
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    Last edited: Jul 9, 2010
  4. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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  5. L.K.Eder
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    L.K.Eder unbannable non-troll

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    "As with so many of the more interesting environmental questions, we really don't have very satisfactory measurements of the carbon dioxide problem. On the other hand, this very clearly is a problem, and, perhaps most particularly, is one that can seize the imagination of persons normally indifferent to projects of apocalyptic change.
    .."


    the memo was to ehrlichman from moynihan.
     
  6. L.K.Eder
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    L.K.Eder unbannable non-troll

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    and here is what hubert heffner had to say in response.

    so moynihan sends a memo to ehrlichman, cannot even get the name of the scientist right (where was his mind), makes alarmist predictions.

    westwall in his never-ending crusade to surf the net and find ridiculous blog entries, gets it wrong again.
     
  7. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    A memo witten by John Erlickman, identified by the blogger as having been

    That does not really say who made claims but notes that some guys in the weather bureau




    WTF?!

    This MEMO couldn't poossbly be more confused or less meaningful.

    No science, no sources, even the blogger was confused by it.
     
  8. L.K.Eder
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    L.K.Eder unbannable non-troll

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    it was written to ehrlichman by moynihan.
     
  9. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    How do you know?

    It doesn't say from whose desk it originated.

    More to the point it it a MEMO written by somebody (not identified as a scientist) about some predictions by SOMEBODY who is not identified.

    This could not be less significant.
     
  10. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Science by consensus?
     

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