At the beginning of the year many economists said that economic growth would be weaker in Q1, 2012. Q4, 2011 GDP came in at 3%, but much of the increase was attributed to a build-up of inventory that was not expected to be repeated the next quarter. Few other reasons were given for the slowdown.
My expert economic panel forecast Q1 GDP to be 1.9% in January and adjusted it up slightly to 2.1 in the March forecast. I never really bought into a lower number based on inventory changes alone. The Q4 inventory build-up was a reaction to inventories being much too low in Q3. They were too low because sales were much better than expected. (A good thing!). Then businesses added to stocks in Q4 in anticipation of even higher sales (Another good thing!). In a growing economy, I do not believe inventory increases are a bad thing, I think it is a good thing.
So if the base is 3% growth, what did the economic indicators say in the recently completed Q1? :
→ The ISM manufacturing index remained in the “growth range” each month and indicated no slowdown in production.
→ The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is currently at its highest since March 2008 (very early in the Great Recession). The Gallup survey confirms consumer confidence is growing.
→ The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) shows the economy growing at just above a 3% clip.
→ The ECRI Weekly Index (measures leading economic indicators on a weekly basis) is at its highest point since last August. The government’s index of leading economic indicators also predicts continued growth
Read the rest of the article using the link.
Note: “Kentucky Windage” is a term related to marksmanship, not college basketball. It is incorrect to say: “Kentucky had much windage at the 2012 NCAA Basketball Tournament.”
http://modeltstocktrends.blogspot.com/2012/04/smells-like-3-to-me.html
My expert economic panel forecast Q1 GDP to be 1.9% in January and adjusted it up slightly to 2.1 in the March forecast. I never really bought into a lower number based on inventory changes alone. The Q4 inventory build-up was a reaction to inventories being much too low in Q3. They were too low because sales were much better than expected. (A good thing!). Then businesses added to stocks in Q4 in anticipation of even higher sales (Another good thing!). In a growing economy, I do not believe inventory increases are a bad thing, I think it is a good thing.
So if the base is 3% growth, what did the economic indicators say in the recently completed Q1? :
→ The ISM manufacturing index remained in the “growth range” each month and indicated no slowdown in production.
→ The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is currently at its highest since March 2008 (very early in the Great Recession). The Gallup survey confirms consumer confidence is growing.
→ The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) shows the economy growing at just above a 3% clip.
→ The ECRI Weekly Index (measures leading economic indicators on a weekly basis) is at its highest point since last August. The government’s index of leading economic indicators also predicts continued growth
Read the rest of the article using the link.
Note: “Kentucky Windage” is a term related to marksmanship, not college basketball. It is incorrect to say: “Kentucky had much windage at the 2012 NCAA Basketball Tournament.”
http://modeltstocktrends.blogspot.com/2012/04/smells-like-3-to-me.html
