Set condition red! Emergency alpha! Emergency alpha!

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by DavidS, Feb 28, 2009.

  1. DavidS
    Offline

    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2008
    Messages:
    9,811
    Thanks Received:
    766
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    New York, NY
    Ratings:
    +767
    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0_xMQ7yxTo]YouTube - Red Alert ![/ame]

    National Weather Service Text Product Display

    MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE SECOND COASTAL LOW. WITH
    00Z ECMWF COMING IN VERY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS AND GOOD SUPPORT FROM
    00Z CMC GLOBAL AND TYPICAL LAG TO THE S/SE IN GEFS MEAN...WITH
    FAIR TO SOLID SUPPORT FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE
    MEMBERS...FOLLOWED GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NAM WITH ITS MORE
    SOUTHERN/EASTERN PROGRESSION DUE TO ITS EVENTUAL OPENING UP OF CUT
    OFF LOW (AND WAITING TO PHASE IT WITH LAST OF NORTHERN STREAM
    SHORTWAVES) IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

    FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...HAVE SOURCE OF COLD AIR TO
    THE NW SUPPLYING CONSTANT SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR...WITH A
    STRONG CUT OFF LOW LIFTING NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND 850 LOW
    TRACKING MAINLY TO THE S/E OF CWA (MIGHT CROSS FAR EASTERN
    PORTION)...SO HAVE INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AND FOR
    MINIMAL MID LEVEL WARMING. BASICALLY EVERYTHING YOU NEED FOR A
    SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
    MONDAY EVENING (IF FOLLOW MORE OF ECMWF THAN GFS WITH DEFORMATION
    AXIS PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW). WILL HAVE ENOUGH MID
    LEVEL WARM AIR OVER EASTERN AREAS...THAT SHOULD SEE SOME SLEET
    MIXED IN...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. WITH QPF
    AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND .5 INCHES NW TO 1.5 INCHES
    SE AND TEMPERATURES HELPING TO INCREASE SNOW RATIONS WHERE HAVE
    LOWER QPF...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET
    ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY (USE 24 HOUR
    CRITERIA SINCE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER 12 HOURS)...SO HAVE
    ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH AS A RESULT.

    THINGS THAT COULD GO WRONG... 1) LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...LIMITING
    QPF ENOUGH OVER NW AREAS TO A LEVEL THAT WILL NOT REACHING WARNING
    AMOUNTS 2) TO MUCH MID LEVEL WARM AIR WORKS IN OVER EASTERN AREAS
    DEPENDING ON TRACK OF 850 LOW...PRODUCING MORE SLEET THAN
    SNOW...HOLDING AMOUNTS BELOW WARNING LEVELS THERE. 3) DEPENDING ON
    EXACT STRENGTH OF THE HIGH TOO MUCH DRY AIR COULD WORK IN AT THE
    LOW LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS LIMITING
    AMOUNTS.

    CONFIDENCE IN WATCH RUNS FROM 50 PCT OVER NW AREAS TO AROUND 70%
    OVER CT/LONG ISLAND. FOR NOW FORECASTING 6-9 INCHES OVER THE
    NW...AND 9-12 INCHES OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DO SEE POTENTIAL
    FOR SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE OVER A FOOT DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE
    ANTICIPATED BANDING DOES SET UP IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW TO MID
    LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.

    SNOW SHOULD TAPER OF MONDAY EVENING (FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE IN
    WATCH AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IF ANY PRECIPITATION
    WILL FALL MONDAY NIGHT).

    WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DID
    NOT OPT TO INCLUDE THE FIRST SYSTEM IN THE WATCH. ALSO SO THE SNOW
    GRID ON THE WEB PAGE WOULD MATCH UP WITH THE WATCH...DID NOT MAKE

    A SNOW GRID FOR THE FIRST SUB ADVISORY EVENT.

    OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
    A DEVELOPING COASTAL EXPECTED TO BRING ADVERSE FLYING CONDITIONS
    SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
    POSSIBLE. ONCE AGAIN SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES. HIGHEST SNOWFALL
    RATES EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS EASTERN CT AND LI...WITH 2-3 INCHES
    PER HOUR POSSIBLE LATE SUN NIGHT
    . IMPACT WILL BE VERY TRACK
    DEPENDANT...AND ALL AVIATION INTERESTS ARE URGED TO KEEP UPDATED
    ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH
    THURSDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --
     
  2. del
    Offline

    del BANNED

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2008
    Messages:
    45,052
    Thanks Received:
    9,830
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +9,885
    put a sock in it, it might snow

    whoopee
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  3. xsited1
    Offline

    xsited1 Agent P

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    17,750
    Thanks Received:
    5,299
    Trophy Points:
    198
    Location:
    Little Rock, AR
    Ratings:
    +5,306
    It's snowing in Little Rock right now. Well, it's actually sleeting, but it's about as close as we get to snow.
     
  4. DavidS
    Offline

    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2008
    Messages:
    9,811
    Thanks Received:
    766
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    New York, NY
    Ratings:
    +767
    .short term /6 am sunday morning through monday night/...
    A major winter storm is on tap for sunday night into monday as
    a deepening southern branch closed low gets picked by an amplifying
    northern branch trof sliding across the great lakes and into the
    northeast.

    After some light snow in the morning sun...mainly along the
    coast...weak riding both aloft and at the surface will shut down
    the pcpn for the afternoon hours. This will be a brief respite
    though...as low pressure tracks off the carolina coast in the
    evening. A strong coastal front develops along the eastern
    seaboard in the evening...aided by a strengthening n/ne flow (cold
    conveyor belt). At the same time...a coupling jet structure
    between the two branches of the polar jet establishes deep-layered
    lift after 03z. This results in heavy snowfall breaking out during
    the late evening hours and continuing into monday morning. There
    is some concern with the proximity of the 85h low and warm air in
    the mid levels moving across eastern li and se ct. This would
    result in some sleet mixing in at the height of the storm.
    However...current thinking is for a mainly snow forecast based on
    model track consensus and thermal fields.

    Model qpf generally around an inch from nyc and points east...with
    half an inch up across northern portions of the lower hudson
    valley. This results in snowfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches with the
    highest amounts across eastern sections at this time.

    Due to the complex interaction between the two branches of the
    polar jet...uncertainty remains in the track of the storm. A
    deviation to the east or west by hundred miles would have
    significant impacts. Right now though...the global model ensemble
    as well as the 18z nam wrf...are in remarkably good agreement.
    Should this trend continue with the 00z model run...warnings would
    be issued overnight.

    Snow tapers off in the aft on mon with strong cold advection on
    the backside and wind gusts up to 40 mph. The tight pressure
    gradient on the nw flank of the storm could produce blizzard
    condition at times. a blizzard warning is not out of the question.
     
  5. Terry
    Offline

    Terry Shut the $%$ Up!

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2009
    Messages:
    5,222
    Thanks Received:
    1,090
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings:
    +1,091
    SE Va won't get snow that will stick...LOL I've been here 5 years and maybe a total of 2 inches in all that time.
     
  6. Jon
    Offline

    Jon The CPA

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2008
    Messages:
    8,101
    Thanks Received:
    1,276
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Fayetteville, AR
    Ratings:
    +1,281
    We've got about an inch and it's still coming down pretty strong. It was sleeting some last night, and it snowed a bit too. That all melted this morning, but then the temperature dropped about 15 degrees and it started up again.

    And my mom in Helena said they've had a few flurries, but no accumulation.
     
  7. auditor0007
    Offline

    auditor0007 Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2008
    Messages:
    12,566
    Thanks Received:
    2,255
    Trophy Points:
    255
    Location:
    Toledo, OH
    Ratings:
    +3,218
    If this is the best you can do, giving us the local weather report, please find a new hobby.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  8. DavidS
    Offline

    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2008
    Messages:
    9,811
    Thanks Received:
    766
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    New York, NY
    Ratings:
    +767
    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcVe2k4GpKg&feature=related]YouTube - Red Alert[/ame]

    Up to 17 inches is currently forecasted in the major metropolitan cities of I-95. According to the NWS, a Blizzard Warning is not out of the quesiton.
     
  9. midcan5
    Offline

    midcan5 liberal / progressive

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2007
    Messages:
    10,790
    Thanks Received:
    2,367
    Trophy Points:
    245
    Location:
    Philly, PA
    Ratings:
    +3,301
    This was the worst I have ever seen. I actually had to go into work that day, hitched a ride to center city where I walked and thankfully the subway ran so I got close enough to walk home as this much snow closed the world. What was so amazing, there was so much snow they had no place to put it and piled it in fields or dumped in the Delaware. We had 30 inches by most counts.

    The Worst Snow Storm Of The Century

    some perspective on storms through the years.

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/md-winter.html
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2009

Share This Page