Schiller: further 10- 25% Home Price Drop Possible

[Trajan]

yea, wonderful....lets prop the market some more...


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Schiller: 25% Home Price Drop Possible
June 10, 2011 By Financial Bin Leave a Comment

BLOOMBERG: Robert Shiller, the economist who co-founded the S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices, said a further decline in property values of 10 percent to 25 percent in the next five years “wouldn’t surprise me at all.”

“There’s no precedent for this statistically, so no way to predict,” Shiller said today at a conference hosted by Standard& Poor’s in New York.

U.S. home prices plunged 33 percent in 20 cities through March from their 2006 peak, reaching their lowest level since 2003, according to a Case-Shiller report on May 31. The decline signaled a “double dip” as the index fell below its previous post-housing-bubble low set in April 2009. Prices more than doubled from 2000 to July 2006.

A backlog of foreclosures poised to hit the market means prices may stay depressed, dissuading builders from starting new construction. Unemployment, which rose to 9.1 percent in May, and stricter lending conditions are signs that any recovery in housing may take years.

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Schiller: 25% Home Price Drop Possible

 

[Anachronism]

Just another reason why I am so glad I do not own property. I'm a rentor for life. No yard to deal with. No maintenance to worry about. No resale value considerations to keep me up at night.

 

[Mad Scientist]

You mean they're gonna' go down to where they should have been and where they would have ended up had we not bailed out Fannie and Freddie?

Didn't see that coming.

 

[Wiseacre]

I don't see a bottom until the economy improves and we start creating more jobs consistently enough to where people believe the corner has been turned. I don't see that happening until Obama is out of the WH. Not saying it's all his fault cuz it isn't. But his policies are putting a damper on economic growth IMHO, and we need a change.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

I can believe another 30-40% on the $300k properties.
The homes that were sold to folks with $50k incomes....you know...McMansions...cheap cookie cutter 2500-3000 sq. ft homes built barely to code.

I can easily see these selling for less than half what they were at the height of the bubble. These things are empty all over the country.

 

[martybegan]

I can believe another 30-40% on the $300k properties.
The homes that were sold to folks with $50k incomes....you know...McMansions...cheap cookie cutter 2500-3000 sq. ft homes built barely to code.

I can easily see these selling for less than half what they were at the height of the bubble. These things are empty all over the country.

Except in some markets like NYC where in a few years when i want to buy a condo or a coop I will still have to shell out $200k for a decent 1 bedroom, and thats in Queens.

 

[Trajan]

I can believe another 30-40% on the $300k properties.
The homes that were sold to folks with $50k incomes....you know...McMansions...cheap cookie cutter 2500-3000 sq. ft homes built barely to code.

I can easily see these selling for less than half what they were at the height of the bubble. These things are empty all over the country.

Except in some markets like NYC where in a few years when i want to buy a condo or a coop I will still have to shell out $200k for a decent 1 bedroom, and thats in Queens.

I could never get my head around buying an apt....*shrugs*

 

[Trajan]

You mean they're gonna' go down to where they should have been and where they would have ended up had we not bailed out Fannie and Freddie?

Didn't see that coming.

yea, basically......hey we need to keep F&F employed.....Goerlick and Raines need their dividend checks you know...

 

[iamwhatiseem]

I can believe another 30-40% on the $300k properties.
The homes that were sold to folks with $50k incomes....you know...McMansions...cheap cookie cutter 2500-3000 sq. ft homes built barely to code.

I can easily see these selling for less than half what they were at the height of the bubble. These things are empty all over the country.

Except in some markets like NYC where in a few years when i want to buy a condo or a coop I will still have to shell out $200k for a decent 1 bedroom, and thats in Queens.

I could never get my head around buying an apt....*shrugs*

Me neither.
Never really understood this condo thing.

 

[martybegan]

Except in some markets like NYC where in a few years when i want to buy a condo or a coop I will still have to shell out $200k for a decent 1 bedroom, and thats in Queens.

I could never get my head around buying an apt....*shrugs*

Me neither.
Never really understood this condo thing.

it only works in markets like this. a condo starts at 200k, a house? 400k minimum.

 

[william the wie]

I can believe another 30-40% on the $300k properties.
The homes that were sold to folks with $50k incomes....you know...McMansions...cheap cookie cutter 2500-3000 sq. ft homes built barely to code.

I can easily see these selling for less than half what they were at the height of the bubble. These things are empty all over the country.

Except in some markets like NYC where in a few years when i want to buy a condo or a coop I will still have to shell out $200k for a decent 1 bedroom, and thats in Queens.

One of my many problems with Schiller and his index is that it only covers single family homes. Every class of housing in America is in a state of critical oversupply. There are more than enough empty rooms in motels, SROs and extended stay hotels to house all foreclosed families, likewise trailer lots. Outside of TX the rule for the next five or six years is only buy tax sales. Definitely buying in NYC is a mistake.

 

[martybegan]

I can believe another 30-40% on the $300k properties.
The homes that were sold to folks with $50k incomes....you know...McMansions...cheap cookie cutter 2500-3000 sq. ft homes built barely to code.

I can easily see these selling for less than half what they were at the height of the bubble. These things are empty all over the country.

Except in some markets like NYC where in a few years when i want to buy a condo or a coop I will still have to shell out $200k for a decent 1 bedroom, and thats in Queens.

One of my many problems with Schiller and his index is that it only covers single family homes. Every class of housing in America is in a state of critical oversupply. There are more than enough empty rooms in motels, SROs and extended stay hotels to house all foreclosed families, likewise trailer lots. Outside of TX the rule for the next five or six years is only buy tax sales. Definitely buying in NYC is a mistake.

I was born and raised here, with all my family here, so relocation is not an option. Besides I couldnt live in a place where you cant get a subway ride home from a bar that closes at 4 AM.

 

[boedicca]

You mean they're gonna' go down to where they should have been and where they would have ended up had we not bailed out Fannie and Freddie?

Didn't see that coming.

And where they would have likely been all along if the Feds, Fannie Mae, and Wall St. had not conspired to create a real estate bubble in the first place.

 

[william the wie]

You mean they're gonna' go down to where they should have been and where they would have ended up had we not bailed out Fannie and Freddie?

Didn't see that coming.

And where they would have likely been all along if the Feds, Fannie Mae, and Wall St. had not conspired to create a real estate bubble in the first place.

You make conspiracy sound like a bad thing.

 

[sparky]

and most will once the details are laid out.......

 

[Douger]

Except in some markets like NYC where in a few years when i want to buy a condo or a coop I will still have to shell out $200k for a decent 1 bedroom, and thats in Queens.

One of my many problems with Schiller and his index is that it only covers single family homes. Every class of housing in America is in a state of critical oversupply. There are more than enough empty rooms in motels, SROs and extended stay hotels to house all foreclosed families, likewise trailer lots. Outside of TX the rule for the next five or six years is only buy tax sales. Definitely buying in NYC is a mistake.

I was born and raised here, with all my family here, so relocation is not an option. Besides I couldnt live in a place where you cant get a subway ride home from a bar that closes at 4 AM.

Yep. You're uh murkin.
Enjoy your demise.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Housing isn't going to hit a bottom as long as the federal government keeps trying to prevent banks from foreclosing. The banks need to get this bad debt off their books and then you'll see housing prices start to gradually go back up again.

 

[uscitizen]

Already back to 2003 prices? Well I guess they still do have a ways to drop since they were atrificially inflated in 2003 as well.

 

[martybegan]

One of my many problems with Schiller and his index is that it only covers single family homes. Every class of housing in America is in a state of critical oversupply. There are more than enough empty rooms in motels, SROs and extended stay hotels to house all foreclosed families, likewise trailer lots. Outside of TX the rule for the next five or six years is only buy tax sales. Definitely buying in NYC is a mistake.

I was born and raised here, with all my family here, so relocation is not an option. Besides I couldnt live in a place where you cant get a subway ride home from a bar that closes at 4 AM.

Yep. You're uh murkin.
Enjoy your demise.