Santorum--delegate math--It's impossible for him to win the nomination.

[Maple]

Santorum hasnt relied on big money donors. Neither has Paul. I see no reason why they wouldnt continue with their current strategies. Newt on the other hand is screwed IMHO. He's in for sheer ego, and that's fine by me.

I dont expect Santorum to pull out and support Romney if he doesnt think that's what's best for the country.

The only real strategy here is to push for a brokered convention. Again i dont have a problem with that. Some of our best candidates came out of brokered conventions. It will give tons of media attention on the Republican side and completely blanket out Obama.

Santorum has some big money donors, don't kid yourself, he had the millionaire who said women used to hold aspirin between their knees for birth control. But big money or little money no one wants to bet on the horse who has no chance of winning the race and the numbers are showing that.

 

[asterism]

He wants the second spot.

It's all he ever wanted. A nice cushy goobermint job with a nice lifelong pension.

He already has that as Senator.

Not sure what he wants, but VP isn't it I don't think.

 

[Inthemiddle]

He wants the second spot.

It's all he ever wanted. A nice cushy goobermint job with a nice lifelong pension.

Yep, where he can push his radical, anti-woman agenda and get a nice lifelong pension to supplement his speaking fees and book selling.

Typical of the R's.

No work but lots of pay.

And how many Democrats are substantially different?

 

[theunbubba]

Frontloading HQ’s Josh Putnam crunches the numbers and finds that under the most optimistic scenario, Rick Santorum is limited to a delegate haul of 1,075, which falls somewhat short of the 1,144 needed to win the nomination.

Putnam notes that you could goose that even further and assume big wins for Santorum in the remaining primaries. Even still, the most he could win is 1,152 delegates. By contrast, Mitt Romney’s minimum 1,162 delegates while his maximum extends to 1,341 delegates.

In other words—at this point—it’s mathematically impossible for Santorum to win the nomination through delegate accumulation. Of course, there’s always the question of a brokered convention. But as Putnam points out, of the people to win the nomination through negotiation, Santorum is at the bottom of the list:

The bottom line here is that Romney has enough of a delegate advantage right now and especially coming out of today’s contests that it is very unlikely that anyone will catch him, much less catch him and get to 1144. The latter seems particularly far-fetched given the above scenarios. And that is a problem in this race. Well, a problem for Gingrich and Santorum anyway. If all either of them can take to voters is an argument that all they can do is prevent Romney from getting to 1144, then neither has a winning strategy. That sort of strategy has a half life; one that will grow less effective as, in this case, Romney approaches 1144.

Complicating this scenario even further for Gingrich and Santorum is the fact that if neither can get to 1144 or even close to it, neither is all that likely to be the candidate to emerge as the nominee at any – unlikely though it may be – contested convention.

Rick Santorum Can't Win

This article doesn't mention the delegates that Santorum is ineligible for because of improper filing in many state congressional districts. Illinois--coming up--for example.

Santorum has failed to file full delegate slates in Tennessee, New Hampshire and Illinois, and has failed to submit enough delegates in several Ohio congressional districts,” Williams said in a statement.

Rick Santorum’s Ohio Delegate Problems Pile Up - ABC News

The GOP is required to supply delegates to the convention for all won. The preference elections are simply for distribution purposes or contested delegate counts. There are a certain number of uncomitted delegates from each state. These are usually required to vote for the winner of their state majority in the first round.
The math is fuzzy right now. Gingrich is throwing the election to Romney. It's why he's there. No matter what he says to the contrary.

If Romney is the nominee he picks Newt as VP. Anybody wanna make a bet? $20 to the server / software fund ?

 

[Avatar4321]

Frontloading HQ’s Josh Putnam crunches the numbers and finds that under the most optimistic scenario, Rick Santorum is limited to a delegate haul of 1,075, which falls somewhat short of the 1,144 needed to win the nomination.

Putnam notes that you could goose that even further and assume big wins for Santorum in the remaining primaries. Even still, the most he could win is 1,152 delegates. By contrast, Mitt Romney’s minimum 1,162 delegates while his maximum extends to 1,341 delegates.

In other words—at this point—it’s mathematically impossible for Santorum to win the nomination through delegate accumulation. Of course, there’s always the question of a brokered convention. But as Putnam points out, of the people to win the nomination through negotiation, Santorum is at the bottom of the list:

The bottom line here is that Romney has enough of a delegate advantage right now and especially coming out of today’s contests that it is very unlikely that anyone will catch him, much less catch him and get to 1144. The latter seems particularly far-fetched given the above scenarios. And that is a problem in this race. Well, a problem for Gingrich and Santorum anyway. If all either of them can take to voters is an argument that all they can do is prevent Romney from getting to 1144, then neither has a winning strategy. That sort of strategy has a half life; one that will grow less effective as, in this case, Romney approaches 1144.

Complicating this scenario even further for Gingrich and Santorum is the fact that if neither can get to 1144 or even close to it, neither is all that likely to be the candidate to emerge as the nominee at any – unlikely though it may be – contested convention.

Rick Santorum Can't Win

This article doesn't mention the delegates that Santorum is ineligible for because of improper filing in many state congressional districts. Illinois--coming up--for example.

Santorum has failed to file full delegate slates in Tennessee, New Hampshire and Illinois, and has failed to submit enough delegates in several Ohio congressional districts,” Williams said in a statement.

Rick Santorum’s Ohio Delegate Problems Pile Up - ABC News

The GOP is required to supply delegates to the convention for all won. The preference elections are simply for distribution purposes or contested delegate counts. There are a certain number of uncomitted delegates from each state. These are usually required to vote for the winner of their state majority in the first round.
The math is fuzzy right now. Gingrich is throwing the election to Romney. It's why he's there. No matter what he says to the contrary.

If Romney is the nominee he picks Newt as VP. Anybody wanna make a bet? $20 to the server / software fund ?

Id take that bet in a heartbeat if i gambled. But I don't.

No way Newt is going to be VP. Not going to happen. If you think Newt's in the race to throw it to Romney then you clearly dont understand Newt. He hates Romney. He's not going to do that.

 

[editec]

Yup.

Looks like MITT is the guy this time around.

 

[JoeB131]

To the OP.

So what?

Santorum doesn't have to win. All he has to do is keep Romnuts from getting a majority. Then we have to get a brokered convention where MAYBE the GOP has an attack of good sense and realizes Romney is a terrible idea.

I mean, more than likely Romney is going to be the nominee, and Obama will win by a bigger margin than he did in 2008.

So if you're Santorum, and you have your eyes on 2016, why not keep at it as long as possible?

 

[JoeB131]

I don't think winning is his goal.

He wants the vp slot and will be trying to use his power to get it. He will fail.

Rubio needs to be the pic.

Rubio is not going to destroy his reputation by getting anywhere near Romney. he didn't even endorse him in Florida.

Romney got a bit ahead by bashing brown people. He's currently polling at 25% amongst hispanics.

 

[JoeB131]

I don't think winning is his goal.

He wants the vp slot and will be trying to use his power to get it. He will fail.

Rubio needs to be the pic.

There is no way he is going to be chosen as a VP pick, women cantstandum and they are already calling him that. " Cantstandum" is his new name, he is driving women right back over to the democrat party the sooner he gets out the better for all of us.

I want Rubio or any other number of good candidates.

Too bad none of them will get near Romney. They stink of fail is already all over him.

If Romney is relying on his Veep Pick to save him, he's already done.

Probably, though, it would behoove Romney to pick someone from the Midwest. Won't help him, though.

Romney won't win Michigan and he won't win Massachusetts. When your candidate can't even win his home state, that's usually a bad sign.

 

[JoeB131]

Santorum hasnt relied on big money donors. Neither has Paul. I see no reason why they wouldnt continue with their current strategies. Newt on the other hand is screwed IMHO. He's in for sheer ego, and that's fine by me.

I dont expect Santorum to pull out and support Romney if he doesnt think that's what's best for the country.

The only real strategy here is to push for a brokered convention. Again i dont have a problem with that. Some of our best candidates came out of brokered conventions. It will give tons of media attention on the Republican side and completely blanket out Obama.

Santorum has some big money donors, don't kid yourself, he had the millionaire who said women used to hold aspirin between their knees for birth control. But big money or little money no one wants to bet on the horse who has no chance of winning the race and the numbers are showing that.

Romney has about as little chance as Santorum. They both badly trail Obama in polls.

And this is the problem. you guys aren't thinking long game. Long game is you build coalitions. Santorum has the ability to get working folks back on the GOP's side. Romney is just a clueless rich guy.

If the GOP is going to have a future, there are two groups they need to start making inroads with. Working people and Hispanics. Romney doesn't help with either.

 

[Mac1958]

.

Is Newt's ego-driven refusal to leave the race handing it over to Romney?

.

 

[JoeB131]

.

Is Newt's ego-driven refusal to leave the race handing it over to Romney?

.

I don't think so.

I think the miracle is that either one of them has gone the distance. Keep in mind, they were both in single digits last November.

I don't think it translates that Gingrich's votes would be Santorums, necessarily.

The real story here is Romney's weakness as a frontrunner and annointed candidate. Bush-43 had the nomination wrapped up by now. So did McCain.

 

[Mac1958]

.

Is Newt's ego-driven refusal to leave the race handing it over to Romney?

.

I don't think so.

I think the miracle is that either one of them has gone the distance. Keep in mind, they were both in single digits last November.

I don't think it translates that Gingrich's votes would be Santorums, necessarily.

The real story here is Romney's weakness as a frontrunner and annointed candidate. Bush-43 had the nomination wrapped up by now. So did McCain.

Yeah, I can see that. I've seen polls in which Romney was the "second choice among the most polled", which although funny, probably speaks to this.

What a field. In a "normal" time, I'd think it would be Romney and a strong, more conservative candidate duking it out, with the other guy winning. There's just no "other guy" this time.

Romney = McCain in magic underwear?

.

 

[JoeB131]

.

Is Newt's ego-driven refusal to leave the race handing it over to Romney?

.

I don't think so.

I think the miracle is that either one of them has gone the distance. Keep in mind, they were both in single digits last November.

I don't think it translates that Gingrich's votes would be Santorums, necessarily.

The real story here is Romney's weakness as a frontrunner and annointed candidate. Bush-43 had the nomination wrapped up by now. So did McCain.

Yeah, I can see that. I've seen polls in which Romney was the "second choice among the most polled", which although funny, probably speaks to this.

What a field. In a "normal" time, I'd think it would be Romney and a strong, more conservative candidate duking it out, with the other guy winning. There's just no "other guy" this time.

Romney = McCain in magic underwear?.

There was an image I didn't need over breakfast.

I think it's a little worse than that. McCain, no matter what else you had to say about him, had stature. War Hero, respected senator, party elder.

He didn't command love, but he commanded respect.

I think in 2008, Wall Street Republicans were dead set against Huckabee and Evangelicals were dead set against Romney. So McCain was kind of a concensus choice.

This time, you have Santorum standing in for Huckabee and no one of McCain's stature to be a comprimise.

 

[saveliberty]

Romney = McCain in magic underwear?.

There was an image I didn't need over breakfast.

I think it's a little worse than that. McCain, no matter what else you had to say about him, had stature. War Hero, respected senator, party elder.

He didn't command love, but he commanded respect.

I think in 2008, Wall Street Republicans were dead set against Huckabee and Evangelicals were dead set against Romney. So McCain was kind of a concensus choice.

This time, you have Santorum standing in for Huckabee and no one of McCain's stature to be a comprimise.[/QUOTE]

Good post Joe.

 

[Cuyo]

Again I have to be the one to say it - Frothy is a fucking joke!

Did anyone ever seriously think he was going to be the nom? He'dve been blown out by Goldwaterian proportions.

It doesn't speak well for the Republic party that he's gotten as far as he has.

Out of curiosity, do we have any Santorum fans here? I don't recall hearing a whole lot of positive sentiment about him from anywhere along the USMB spectrum.

 

[FuelRod]

If the pundits are correct in their assesment of the candidates, all signs point to an open convention.

 

[California Girl]

Santorum hasnt relied on big money donors. Neither has Paul. I see no reason why they wouldnt continue with their current strategies. Newt on the other hand is screwed IMHO. He's in for sheer ego, and that's fine by me.

I dont expect Santorum to pull out and support Romney if he doesnt think that's what's best for the country.

The only real strategy here is to push for a brokered convention. Again i dont have a problem with that. Some of our best candidates came out of brokered conventions. It will give tons of media attention on the Republican side and completely blanket out Obama.

That's nonsense, a brokered convention is not going to happen, read Dick Morris it would be a disaster for our party and chances of beating Obama. the sooner we get this primary over with the sooner we can focus our money, our time and talents and direct it all towards the real enemy Barach Obama.

There was a time when I would have objected to anyone referring to Obama as the 'enemy'. However, that was before Obama used the term to describe me... so... if he wants me to be his enemy... I'm in.

I agree that the GOP should now rally around Romney, put their mouths, and they money, behind the one with the best chance of taking our enemy out.

 

[saveliberty]

Romney is Obama light. In fact, he is worse, because Congress would support him. Even Democrats, due to the liberal tax and spend views Romney holds. Better to have gridlock for four more years.

 

[elvis]

Again I have to be the one to say it - Frothy is a fucking joke!

Did anyone ever seriously think he was going to be the nom? He'dve been blown out by Goldwaterian proportions.

It doesn't speak well for the Republic party that he's gotten as far as he has.

Out of curiosity, do we have any Santorum fans here? I don't recall hearing a whole lot of positive sentiment about him from anywhere along the USMB spectrum.

There's too much offensive language on this board to attract Santorum fans.