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Rick Santorum Can't WinFrontloading HQs Josh Putnam crunches the numbers and finds that under the most optimistic scenario, Rick Santorum is limited to a delegate haul of 1,075, which falls somewhat short of the 1,144 needed to win the nomination.
Putnam notes that you could goose that even further and assume big wins for Santorum in the remaining primaries. Even still, the most he could win is 1,152 delegates. By contrast, Mitt Romneys minimum 1,162 delegates while his maximum extends to 1,341 delegates.
In other wordsat this pointits mathematically impossible for Santorum to win the nomination through delegate accumulation. Of course, theres always the question of a brokered convention. But as Putnam points out, of the people to win the nomination through negotiation, Santorum is at the bottom of the list:
The bottom line here is that Romney has enough of a delegate advantage right now and especially coming out of todays contests that it is very unlikely that anyone will catch him, much less catch him and get to 1144. The latter seems particularly far-fetched given the above scenarios. And that is a problem in this race. Well, a problem for Gingrich and Santorum anyway. If all either of them can take to voters is an argument that all they can do is prevent Romney from getting to 1144, then neither has a winning strategy. That sort of strategy has a half life; one that will grow less effective as, in this case, Romney approaches 1144.
Complicating this scenario even further for Gingrich and Santorum is the fact that if neither can get to 1144 or even close to it, neither is all that likely to be the candidate to emerge as the nominee at any unlikely though it may be contested convention.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/rick-santorums-ohio-delegate-problems-pile-up/Santorum has failed to file full delegate slates in Tennessee, New Hampshire and Illinois, and has failed to submit enough delegates in several Ohio congressional districts, Williams said in a statement.
He wants the second spot.
It's all he ever wanted. A nice cushy goobermint job with a nice lifelong pension.
Every republican candidate besides Ron Paul is no different than any progressive - they just have a different perspective on how the government should rule our lives...
Republican National Committee: Rule 38: Can A "Bound" Candidate Vote For Someone Other Than The Winner Of Their State Primary? | Ron Paul 2012 | Peace . Gold . Liberty“[The] RNC does not recognize a state’s binding of national delegates, but considers each delegate a free agent who can vote for whoever they choose.” Thus, if a delegate were to challenge his or her ability to vote as a free agent, he or she would have grounds under Rule 38..
He wants the second spot.
It's all he ever wanted. A nice cushy goobermint job with a nice lifelong pension.
WHAT is wrong with the rw's that they would want a little kid who knows nothing, has experienced nothing and has already started with the Repub lies about who and what he is.
Oh wait - remembering Norquist's words, that all they want is a yes man. So, yeah, Rubio would make a good veep yes man.
(STOOPID rw's)
Every republican candidate besides Ron Paul is no different than any progressive - they just have a different perspective on how the government should rule our lives...
We don't have to tolerate this shit. But as long as they have us divided we're screwed.
I don't think we'll be unscrewed very soon. The liberals will never trust in there fellow citizen.
They are joined at the hip with the creeps in DC and downward.
It's all shit.. and shit runs down hill.
I don't think winning is his goal.
He wants the vp slot and will be trying to use his power to get it. He will fail.
Rubio needs to be the pic.
So Oreo, do you expect Santorum to drop out now? He's ahead of Newt in the Delegate count, so if this is true, it means Newt cant win either. Im trying to figure out why you are focused on Santorum rather than all the candidates who can't win without a brokered convention.
Romney will win the nomination with more than enough delegates, and have the nomination sewn up long before the Convention. Bank on it!
This is what VICTORY looks like.
Santorum hasnt relied on big money donors. Neither has Paul. I see no reason why they wouldnt continue with their current strategies. Newt on the other hand is screwed IMHO. He's in for sheer ego, and that's fine by me.
I dont expect Santorum to pull out and support Romney if he doesnt think that's what's best for the country.
The only real strategy here is to push for a brokered convention. Again i dont have a problem with that. Some of our best candidates came out of brokered conventions. It will give tons of media attention on the Republican side and completely blanket out Obama.
