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The bump will be a snowball that doesn't stop until Nov. Wait for the debates! The telepromoter in chief will have to debate on his record and on the economy, Romney will kill him. Then you have Rubio/Christie/Rice etc against Joe Hair-plugs. Even Palin wooped him in the debates. Just let Joe talk!
I dont think Mitt nor Obama are looking forward to the debates. From what I've seen out of both of them the debates will be akward at best, horrible for both at worst.
I think Romney will crush Obama in the debates and here's why. Romney will attack Obama's record and all Obama will be able to come back with is bullshit that most Americans will see right through. All Romney will have to say is "the American people can look at their bank accounts and paychecks to determine whether your policies have worked Mr. Obama" and that's pretty much going to be that.
Obama will try to attack Romney on side issues (war against women, religion, etc) but it hasn't been Romney engaging in that rhetoric. All Romney has to say is "you are running against Mitt Romney and not Rick Santorum" and that's pretty much the end of that. And given how much Obama stutters and fumbles around in debates he's going to end up looking like an ass.
Furthermore, everyone already knows Obama very well and know his policies. There's a lot of misinformation about Romney right now and the people don't know him nearly as well so Romney will gain support through the debates as people get to know him better and he has a chance to explain his policy ideas on a national stage head to head with Obama.
Romney will also gain support between now and November as the GOP heals from the primary wounds and the party unites. He will gain support when he chooses his running mate (I would guess at this time it will be Rob Portman to secure Ohio because it doesn't look like he will need Rubio to help him win Florida).
Now Obama isn't going to do better than he did in 2008. Emotions were high on election day due to the market crash and people still bought his "hope and change, chill up the leg" bullshit. No one buys it anymore so Obama can kiss a good 5%-6% goodbye right off the bat. Combine that with the gains Romney will make between now and November because of the three points I listed above and Obama will need to have a good 7%-9% advantage in a state to feel secure about it at this moment because Romney will close somewhere between 5% and 8% between now and election day (assuming the economy remains as it is).
When you consider Ohio is at roughly 2% trending toward Romney, Virginia is at 3.5% trending slightly toward Romney, Florida has a one point Romney advantage already and is trending toward Romney, Iowa is at a 3 point spread, North Carolina is at 2.4%, etc, etc.....this is NOT good news for Obama. It's a recipe for disaster for the Democratic Party.
Thanks for your expert analysis.
Now can you tell us how Romney would be any different than Obama...specifically. What will Romney do to drastically alter the course of the country...specifically.
3May12
Ohio Obama 4.2
Florida Obama 0.4
Virginia Obama 2.4
New Hampshire Obama 3.5
Pennsylvania Obama 7.0
Michigan Obama 11.3
Wisconsin Obama 12.4
Iowa Obama 3.0
Missouri Romney 3.0
Colorado Obama 5.6
Neveda Obama 7.4
Arizona Romney 3.2
North Carolina Obama 2.4
RealClearPolitics
By golly, Grampa, ya sure got that down. Romney is really opening a can of whoop ass on Obama in the battleground states
Thanks for your expert analysis.
My pleasure
Now can you tell us how Romney would be any different than Obama...specifically. What will Romney do to drastically alter the course of the country...specifically.
I will be more than happy to discuss that in a thread that deals with that question. This thread deals with polling and projections, not on who you or I think would be the better president. Given the topic of this thread your question is 100% irrelevant.
3May12
Ohio Obama 4.2
Florida Obama 0.4
Virginia Obama 2.4
New Hampshire Obama 3.5
Pennsylvania Obama 7.0
Michigan Obama 11.3
Wisconsin Obama 12.4
Iowa Obama 3.0
Missouri Romney 3.0
Colorado Obama 5.6
Neveda Obama 7.4
Arizona Romney 3.2
North Carolina Obama 2.4
RealClearPolitics
By golly, Grampa, ya sure got that down. Romney is really opening a can of whoop ass on Obama in the battleground states
Yep that's what RCP says. Now let's apply that 6% RV factor that liberal hero Nate Silver talks about and get a rough LV model instead of an RV model. Now we get:
Ohio Romney 1.6
Florida Romney 5.6
Virginia Romney 3.6
New Hampshire Romney 2.5
Pennsylvania Obama 1.0
Michigan Obama 5.3
Wisconsin Obama 6.4
Iowa Romney 3.0
Missouri Romney 9.0
Colorado Romney 0.4
Neveda Obama 1.4
Arizona Romney 9.2
North Carolina Romney 3.6
Well that sure changed things in a hurry
Hey............heard a great one today............
How do you drive an Obama supporter crazy??
Put their food stamps under their work boots.
The bump will be a snowball that doesn't stop until Nov. Wait for the debates! The telepromoter in chief will have to debate on his record and on the economy, Romney will kill him. Then you have Rubio/Christie/Rice etc against Joe Hair-plugs. Even Palin wooped him in the debates. Just let Joe talk!
I dont think Mitt nor Obama are looking forward to the debates. From what I've seen out of both of them the debates will be akward at best, horrible for both at worst.
I think Romney will crush Obama in the debates and here's why. Romney will attack Obama's record and all Obama will be able to come back with is bullshit that most Americans will see right through. All Romney will have to say is "the American people can look at their bank accounts and paychecks to determine whether your policies have worked Mr. Obama" and that's pretty much going to be that.
Obama will try to attack Romney on side issues (war against women, religion, etc) but it hasn't been Romney engaging in that rhetoric. All Romney has to say is "you are running against Mitt Romney and not Rick Santorum" and that's pretty much the end of that. And given how much Obama stutters and fumbles around in debates he's going to end up looking like an ass.
Furthermore, everyone already knows Obama very well and know his policies. There's a lot of misinformation about Romney right now and the people don't know him nearly as well so Romney will gain support through the debates as people get to know him better and he has a chance to explain his policy ideas on a national stage head to head with Obama.
Romney will also gain support between now and November as the GOP heals from the primary wounds and the party unites. He will gain support when he chooses his running mate (I would guess at this time it will be Rob Portman to secure Ohio because it doesn't look like he will need Rubio to help him win Florida).
Now Obama isn't going to do better than he did in 2008. Emotions were high on election day due to the market crash and people still bought his "hope and change, chill up the leg" bullshit. No one buys it anymore so Obama can kiss a good 5%-6% goodbye right off the bat. Combine that with the gains Romney will make between now and November because of the three points I listed above and Obama will need to have a good 7%-9% advantage in a state to feel secure about it at this moment because Romney will close somewhere between 5% and 8% between now and election day (assuming the economy remains as it is).
When you consider Ohio is at roughly 2% trending toward Romney, Virginia is at 3.5% trending slightly toward Romney, Florida has a one point Romney advantage already and is trending toward Romney, Iowa is at a 3 point spread, North Carolina is at 2.4%, etc, etc.....this is NOT good news for Obama. It's a recipe for disaster for the Democratic Party.
Hey............heard a great one today............
How do you drive an Obama supporter crazy??
Put their food stamps under their work boots.
That's original.
its kinda funny but not original.
Hey............heard a great one today............
How do you drive an Obama supporter crazy??
Put their food stamps under their work boots.
That's original.
3May12
Ohio Obama 4.2
Florida Obama 0.4
Virginia Obama 2.4
New Hampshire Obama 3.5
Pennsylvania Obama 7.0
Michigan Obama 11.3
Wisconsin Obama 12.4
Iowa Obama 3.0
Missouri Romney 3.0
Colorado Obama 5.6
Neveda Obama 7.4
Arizona Romney 3.2
North Carolina Obama 2.4
RealClearPolitics
By golly, Grampa, ya sure got that down. Romney is really opening a can of whoop ass on Obama in the battleground states
Yep that's what RCP says. Now let's apply that 6% RV factor that liberal hero Nate Silver talks about and get a rough LV model instead of an RV model. Now we get:
Ohio Romney 1.6
Florida Romney 5.6
Virginia Romney 3.6
New Hampshire Romney 2.5
Pennsylvania Obama 1.0
Michigan Obama 5.3
Wisconsin Obama 6.4
Iowa Romney 3.0
Missouri Romney 9.0
Colorado Romney 0.4
Neveda Obama 1.4
Arizona Romney 9.2
North Carolina Romney 3.6
Well that sure changed things in a hurry
I doubt that your projection is accurate. However, it is so early in the election cycle that none of the projections mean that much right now. Except for getting Grampa's blood pressure up.
I doubt that your projection is accurate. However, it is so early in the election cycle that none of the projections mean that much right now. Except for getting Grampa's blood pressure up.
I guess maybe you are right.
If the economy doesn't improve or only improves slightly Mitt will be able to do that and Obama can't blame Bush or Mitt for the mess anymore at this point.
I just think Mitt comes across as stiff/boring/geeky in debates and Obama's talking points thus far this re-election cycle have been petty and deflective.
I don't want to see Mr Akward Vs Mr NotMyFault...it wont be good for anyone.
Thanks for your expert analysis.
My pleasure
Now can you tell us how Romney would be any different than Obama...specifically. What will Romney do to drastically alter the course of the country...specifically.
I will be more than happy to discuss that in a thread that deals with that question. This thread deals with polling and projections, not on who you or I think would be the better president. Given the topic of this thread your question is 100% irrelevant.
Great! Here ya go http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/221580-how-will-romney-improve-this-country.html
NationalJournal.com - Poll: Romney Ties Obama in Two Big Swing States - Thursday, May 3, 2012
Mitt Romney now runs neck-and-neck with President Obama in electoral-vote-rich Ohio and Florida, according to the latest installment of the Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll
In both states, the race has tightened since the previous poll conducted in late March. In Pennsylvania, Obama leads Romney in the race for the Keystone State's 20 electoral votes, the poll shows, putting the president is in a slightly stronger position there compared to the previous survey.
Romney's rise in two of the three critical states is fueled by voters' perceptions of the economy. Voters in Florida and Ohio think the former Massachusetts governor would do a better job with the economy, while Pennsylvania voters are split evenly on the question. And only a slight majority of voters in each state thinks the economy is beginning to recover.
"Romney's ability to cut into the president's leads in Ohio and Florida reflects two changes in the political environment," according to Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "First, since he is now the de facto nominee, Romney is no longer being attacked by his fellow Republicans, who are closing ranks behind him. Second, voter optimism about the economy has leveled off, reflecting economic statistics over the past month and the public reaction to them."
Voters in three states were also asked who they would like to see Romney choose as his running mate. Florida and Ohio voters favor native sons --Sens. Marco Rubio and Rob Portman, respectively -- while Pennsylvania voters prefer neighboring New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Read the entire article using the link
Romney will probably see a bit of a bump after the RNC. But I seriously doubt it will last long. He's not even as good as McCain when it comes to connecting with average folks. And when his performance at the debates gets bundled into adverts..that's going to sting.
The bump will be a snowball that doesn't stop until Nov. Wait for the debates! The telepromoter in chief will have to debate on his record and on the economy, Romney will kill him. Then you have Rubio/Christie/Rice etc against Joe Hair-plugs. Even Palin wooped him in the debates. Just let Joe talk!
Well remember that Obama is not a very strong debater. He reads a speech wonderfully but he's not very good at "pontificating on his toes" so to speak. Romney has looked very solid in the GOP primary debates. I anticipate Romney will own Obama in that area.
