TheGreatGatsby
Gold Member
If Romney wins one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Ohio then he will win the election. Book it.
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Far from it
Romney trails in PA, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada
He needs to bat .600 in swing states to win
Romney trails by 10 and needs 79 out of 146 Electoral votes
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map
Romney hasn't been up in one single recent poll of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Ohio. This thread is great news... for Barack Obama!
Romney hasn't been up in one single recent poll of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Ohio. This thread is great news... for Barack Obama!
You're either a psychopath__ well let's just settle on that.
Far from it
Romney trails in PA, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada
He needs to bat .600 in swing states to win
My analysis is based upon Florida, Virginia, NC and Colorado going for Romney.
Virginia: Romney's been routinely ahead by 3 to 4 points and assuming nothing there changes.
Based upon that; if Romney gets one of the four aforementioned states; he will win the election.
I'll note one caveat. If it's Wisconsin; then he could be 3 electoral votes short. However, I was just banking on at least one other close state (NH, NM, Iowa, Nevada or even PA, Ohio, Michigan) going his way.
My analysis is solid; based upon current projections. Your .600 crap is just desperation.
My analysis is solid; based upon current projections. Your .600 crap is just desperation.
Far from it
Romney trails in PA, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada
He needs to bat .600 in swing states to win
My analysis is based upon Florida, Virginia, NC and Colorado going for Romney.
Virginia: Romney's been routinely ahead by 3 to 4 points and assuming nothing there changes.
Based upon that; if Romney gets one of the four aforementioned states; he will win the election.
I'll note one caveat. If it's Wisconsin; then he could be 3 electoral votes short. However, I was just banking on at least one other close state (NH, NM, Iowa, Nevada or even PA, Ohio, Michigan) going his way.
My analysis is solid; based upon current projections. Your .600 crap is just desperation.
I could be wrong, but I think the numbers will move a solid two points a couple of days before the election. We probably won't even see it in the public polls, but both campaigns will see it from internal polling. I'm just not sure which way it's going to move. If it moves toward Romney, then he will win in a cliff hanger. If it moves to Obama, then you will see an electoral college landslide, although still a pretty close popular vote.
Romney isn't remotely close in Michigan or PA. If someone is going to give Romney a chance to win those, they should be giving Obama chances to win Missouri, Arizona and other states. That's the first statistical blunder of the OP.
As far as the rest goes, here are Nate Silver's poll-based odds by state, which take all the polls into account..
WI 86
NV 78
OH 75
IA 68
NH 69
CO 57
VA 49
FL 35
NC 19
The polls will move, as Rasmussen will do their usual thing of removing the GOP bias from their polls in the last couple days, so they can point to those last polls and claim to be accurate. Hence, the poll averages will be moving Obama's way.
My analysis is solid; based upon current projections. Your .600 crap is just desperation.
I'm glad to hear that - because it looks like fantasy to me.
I still think Obama can hit 300.
In theory. But you know the odds of that are probably under 1 percent. So, that's an odd thing to say following a 'fantasy' assertion.
Romney hasn't been up in one single recent poll of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Ohio. This thread is great news... for Barack Obama!
In theory. But you know the odds of that are probably under 1 percent. So, that's an odd thing to say following a 'fantasy' assertion.
Well, it's all speculation, of course.
But sites like this one still have:
Obama 294
Romney 244
ElectoralVote
So I'm not sure why you think they would be 99% wrong. Do you?