Romney only needs to bat .250 on election day

[TheGreatGatsby]

If Romney wins one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Ohio then he will win the election. Book it.

 

[rightwinger]

Far from it

Romney trails in PA, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada

He needs to bat .600 in swing states to win

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Far from it

Romney trails in PA, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada

He needs to bat .600 in swing states to win

My analysis is based upon Florida, Virginia, NC and Colorado going for Romney.

Virginia: Romney's been routinely ahead by 3 to 4 points and assuming nothing there changes.

Based upon that; if Romney gets one of the four aforementioned states; he will win the election.

I'll note one caveat. If it's Wisconsin; then he could be 3 electoral votes short. However, I was just banking on at least one other close state (NH, NM, Iowa, Nevada or even PA, Ohio, Michigan) going his way.

My analysis is solid; based upon current projections. Your .600 crap is just desperation.

 

[del]

solid analysis from the dope who thinks national review is a leftist rag

too funny

 

[rightwinger]

Romney trails by 10 and needs 79 out of 146 Electoral votes

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Romney trails by 10 and needs 79 out of 146 Electoral votes

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

I don't really get what your point is. A lot of the gray (neutral) states on RCP are basically expected to go for Romney. You haven't refuted any of my calls, with the possible exception of Virginia. And I'll admit that it's a remote possibility that Virginia could go Obama; and that would change everything. And it's an even more remote possibility that Romney could lose Florida. But my analysis is based upon probabilities as they stand today.

 

[AceRothstein]

Romney hasn't been up in one single recent poll of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Ohio. This thread is great news... for Barack Obama!

 

[elvis]

Far from it

Romney trails in PA, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada

He needs to bat .600 in swing states to win

You don't know what Margin of error means, do you hack?

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Romney hasn't been up in one single recent poll of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Ohio. This thread is great news... for Barack Obama!

You're either a psychopath__ well let's just settle on that.

 

[AceRothstein]

Romney hasn't been up in one single recent poll of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Ohio. This thread is great news... for Barack Obama!

You're either a psychopath__ well let's just settle on that.

You litter this place with nonsense threads and I'm the psychopath?

 

[auditor0007]

Far from it

Romney trails in PA, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada

He needs to bat .600 in swing states to win

My analysis is based upon Florida, Virginia, NC and Colorado going for Romney.

Virginia: Romney's been routinely ahead by 3 to 4 points and assuming nothing there changes.

Based upon that; if Romney gets one of the four aforementioned states; he will win the election.

I'll note one caveat. If it's Wisconsin; then he could be 3 electoral votes short. However, I was just banking on at least one other close state (NH, NM, Iowa, Nevada or even PA, Ohio, Michigan) going his way.

My analysis is solid; based upon current projections. Your .600 crap is just desperation.

I could be wrong, but I think the numbers will move a solid two points a couple of days before the election. We probably won't even see it in the public polls, but both campaigns will see it from internal polling. I'm just not sure which way it's going to move. If it moves toward Romney, then he will win in a cliff hanger. If it moves to Obama, then you will see an electoral college landslide, although still a pretty close popular vote.

 

[Saigon]

My analysis is solid; based upon current projections. Your .600 crap is just desperation.

I'm glad to hear that - because it looks like fantasy to me.

I still think Obama can hit 300.

 

[mamooth]

Romney isn't remotely close in Michigan or PA. If someone is going to give Romney a chance to win those, they should be giving Obama chances to win Missouri, Arizona and other states. That's the first statistical blunder of the OP.

As far as the rest goes, here are Nate Silver's poll-based odds by state, which take all the polls into account..

WI 86
NV 78
OH 75
IA 68
NH 69
CO 57
VA 49
FL 35
NC 19

The polls will move, as Rasmussen will do their usual thing of removing the GOP bias from their polls in the last couple days, so they can point to those last polls and claim to be accurate. Hence, the poll averages will be moving Obama's way.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Far from it

Romney trails in PA, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada

He needs to bat .600 in swing states to win

My analysis is based upon Florida, Virginia, NC and Colorado going for Romney.

Virginia: Romney's been routinely ahead by 3 to 4 points and assuming nothing there changes.

Based upon that; if Romney gets one of the four aforementioned states; he will win the election.

I'll note one caveat. If it's Wisconsin; then he could be 3 electoral votes short. However, I was just banking on at least one other close state (NH, NM, Iowa, Nevada or even PA, Ohio, Michigan) going his way.

My analysis is solid; based upon current projections. Your .600 crap is just desperation.

I could be wrong, but I think the numbers will move a solid two points a couple of days before the election. We probably won't even see it in the public polls, but both campaigns will see it from internal polling. I'm just not sure which way it's going to move. If it moves toward Romney, then he will win in a cliff hanger. If it moves to Obama, then you will see an electoral college landslide, although still a pretty close popular vote.

You clearly do not understand where the state of the race is. If the election were held today; the best Obama could hope for, is a cliff hanger. There are indications that Romney could break 300 electoral votes as well.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Romney isn't remotely close in Michigan or PA. If someone is going to give Romney a chance to win those, they should be giving Obama chances to win Missouri, Arizona and other states. That's the first statistical blunder of the OP.

As far as the rest goes, here are Nate Silver's poll-based odds by state, which take all the polls into account..

WI 86
NV 78
OH 75
IA 68
NH 69
CO 57
VA 49
FL 35
NC 19

The polls will move, as Rasmussen will do their usual thing of removing the GOP bias from their polls in the last couple days, so they can point to those last polls and claim to be accurate. Hence, the poll averages will be moving Obama's way.

Only hacks reference Nate Silver.

And speaking of hackish; it's definitely hackish to say that Romney is not close in states that have recently showed polls with him in the lead or within a point. Geez you fucking noob. Get a fucking shred of intellectual honesty.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

My analysis is solid; based upon current projections. Your .600 crap is just desperation.

I'm glad to hear that - because it looks like fantasy to me.

I still think Obama can hit 300.

In theory. But you know the odds of that are probably under 1 percent. So, that's an odd thing to say following a 'fantasy' assertion.

 

[Saigon]

In theory. But you know the odds of that are probably under 1 percent. So, that's an odd thing to say following a 'fantasy' assertion.

Well, it's all speculation, of course.

But sites like this one still have:

Obama 294
Romney 244

ElectoralVote

So I'm not sure why you think they would be 99% wrong. Do you?

 

[Charles_Main]

Romney hasn't been up in one single recent poll of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Ohio. This thread is great news... for Barack Obama!

The Most Recent Poll in MI has it a tie at 48. It's one of 4 used for the RCP average. The other 3 all have Obama up, but are all at least 10 days old min.

The Most Recent Polls in WI also show a tie.


Do try and keep up.

 

[Charles_Main]

In theory. But you know the odds of that are probably under 1 percent. So, that's an odd thing to say following a 'fantasy' assertion.

Well, it's all speculation, of course.

But sites like this one still have:

Obama 294
Romney 244

ElectoralVote

So I'm not sure why you think they would be 99% wrong. Do you?

when they are still basing their Numbers on the Plus 7 Point Democrat Turn out in 2008. You bet they can be wrong. Turn out is likely going to be more like Dems plus 3, Which means most polls are over sampling Dems by 4%.

If you actually think Dems are going to turn out by 7 Points more than Republicans in this Election, You are delusional.

 

[Saigon]

Charles -

The site claims:

The most recent poll in every state is always used.
If no other polls were taken within a week of the most recent one, only the most recent poll counts.
If one or more other polls were taken within a week of the most recent, all of them are averaged, weighted equally.