Reuters/Ipsos poll: Romney's bounce from convention is short-lived: Sweet!

[tinydancer]

The analysis from the article:

But with the candidates treading water in a dead-heat race, Clark said she expected polls to remain extremely close all the way to the November 6 vote.

Romney's muted benefit from the convention may be in part because of his decision to unveil his vice-presidential pick, Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan, weeks before the convention.

Romney's bounce from convention looks short-lived: Reuters/Ipsos poll - Yahoo! News

 

[AquaAthena]

Ohhhh an on-line poll! That just seals the deal.

So far, Romney's ahead but you really won't see any significant effect until Tuesday. The real polls will be taken on Monday, and that won't even reflect the true effect because some places poll once a week and some even longer than that.

I would venture one guess. If there was an on-line poll that included Ron Paul, he would bury both obama and Romney.

Rasmussen today: Romney 47....Obama 44

Gallup: Romney 47....Obama 46

Looking forward ( OOPS! Did I just use that Marxist slogan? ) to Monday's polls.

 

[Katzndogz]

No post convention bounce here, hmmmm.

In a Post-Convention Bump, Romney Draws Huge Crowds in Cincinnati - NYTimes.com

A crowd of thousands cheered Mitt Romney at a rally here during the opening leg of a cross-country campaign swing on Saturday, testing for the first time whether he can sustain political momentum coming out of the Republican National Convention.

A line of people that stretched for five city blocks awaited Mr. Romney as his motorcade pulled into the Union Terminal. Inside there were so many people that the campaign had to redirect a few hundred of them into a small overflow room, where they crammed in shoulder to shoulder.
The two candidates also emerged neck-in-neck in the question of who "has the right values," with Romney at 38 percent and Obama at 39 percent. On Monday, Obama led in this category by nine points with 43 percent.

For the survey, a sample of 1,505 of American registered voters was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

 

[The Rabbi]

Obama has written off Florida to the GOP already. Romney is thinking of expanding his campaign into "safe" states for the Dems.
Which one is doing better here?

Bullshit. Florida is very much in play. The Obama team is airing the Medicare commercials there, showing what a scumbag Romney chose as a running mate, and how Obamacare actually saves the system.

Uh, no.
Obama shouldn

No surprise Obama wants to run on Mediscare. Only this time the facts are not on his side. People are wising up. Those most affected by Medicare and Obamacare are firmly in the Romney camp.
Florida has large contingents of:
Jews
Retirees
Military.

Every one of them has good reason to oppose Obama.

 

[JoeB131]

The week of, and during the convention is usually a challenger's best week.

If he didn't pull ahead of Obama by about 5 points, he's really got no chance.

Kerry was anywhere from 2-5 points ahead of Bush in the DNC. Romney is just running even or a little behind in most polls.

 

[JoeB131]

Obama has written off Florida to the GOP already. Romney is thinking of expanding his campaign into "safe" states for the Dems.
Which one is doing better here?

Source?

Why should he write off Florida, the latest CNN/Time poll has him leading there by 4 points.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

 

[beretta304]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama


Close enough for me in a country full of hatred for anything Republican or Conservative. See me after the debates or the day after the election.

 

[Katzndogz]

It does not help the democrat position to say that obama is so bad, he should be five points behind by now.

 

[JoeB131]

Polls in 1980 showed Carter pretty much winning.
Until they didnt.

The kooks are in full melt down mode, fantasizing that Obama has a ghost's chance after his historically shitty performance.

Re-Elect Obama: So We Can ALL Take It Up The Ass.

again, in 1980, you had a third party candidate named John Anderson who was polling at 17%...

So comparing polls from a three way race to a two way race isn't valid.

Reagan prevailed because he was able to win over Anderson's followers better than Carter was.

 

[JoeB131]

It does not help the democrat position to say that obama is so bad, he should be five points behind by now.

Well, by any electoral math, he should be.

But the GOP screwed up pretty bad by nominating a Weird Mormon Robot that people can't connect to.

So Obama will probably win.

Not to worry, when Romney loses, you can get on here and say it was because he wasn't a "Real Conservative".... and I promise not to mock you... much.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Obama has written off Florida to the GOP already. Romney is thinking of expanding his campaign into "safe" states for the Dems.
Which one is doing better here?

Bullshit. Florida is very much in play. The Obama team is airing the Medicare commercials there, showing what a scumbag Romney chose as a running mate, and how Obamacare actually saves the system.

Uh, no.
Obama shouldn

No surprise Obama wants to run on Mediscare. Only this time the facts are not on his side. People are wising up. Those most affected by Medicare and Obamacare are firmly in the Romney camp.
Florida has large contingents of:
Jews
Retirees
Military.

Every one of them has good reason to oppose Obama.

Except you have your head up your ass. Obama is winning 5 out of the last 10 Florida polls, and leads on average by .7. Only a complete idiot would claim that state isn't in play, and that Medicare isn't a key issue there. That probably explains why you claim Florida is no longer in play.

Source: 2012 Florida President: Romney vs. Obama

 

[candycorn]

Yup it's over.Word has leaked out from the Romney campaign that they are pretty much throwing in the towel.They have cancelled at least 3 campaign appearances over the next week.Ryan will return to Washington the following week to resume his regular schedule and will no longer go out on campaign stops.An announcement will be made maybe as soon as tomorrow on the Sunday political shows.

He should have given his concession speech at the convention and saved a lot of trouble. It was over when Huntsman dropped out.

 

[The Rabbi]

Polls in 1980 showed Carter pretty much winning.
Until they didnt.

The kooks are in full melt down mode, fantasizing that Obama has a ghost's chance after his historically shitty performance.

Re-Elect Obama: So We Can ALL Take It Up The Ass.

again, in 1980, you had a third party candidate named John Anderson who was polling at 17%...

So comparing polls from a three way race to a two way race isn't valid.

Reagan prevailed because he was able to win over Anderson's followers better than Carter was.

You keep repeating it. This means you can learn nothing.
http://www.amstat.org/sections/SRMS/proceedings/papers/1981_011.pdf

 

[JoeB131]

Did you actually read the link you posted, because page four lists most of the polls taken in November and Ocotober and the mostly showed Reagan in the lead...

 

[Greenbeard]

No surprise Obama wants to run on Mediscare. Only this time the facts are not on his side. People are wising up. Those most affected by Medicare and Obamacare are firmly in the Romney camp.

People are just loving it. I don't know how the Democrats are going to make any headway against them on this issue.

Old people love it:

The average voter loves it:

Which of the following statements do you agree with more? (ROTATE)

Mitt Romney who says this proposal is a good idea because it would strengthen Medicare and reduce government costs for Medicare by giving future seniors more control over their own health care dollars and a choice between traditional Medicare and a variety of private plans.
…or…
Barack Obama who says this proposal is a bad idea because it would end Medicare as we know it by turning it into a voucher system giving seniors a set amount of money to pay for their health care costs and leaving them to personally cover costs above this amount.

Mitt Romney .................................................... 34
Barack Obama ................................................. 50
Mixed/Some of both (VOL) ............................ 2
Neither (VOL) ............................................... 5
Not sure ......................................................... 9

Swing states are loving it:

And the rank-and-file GOP are definitely loving it:

TAMPA, Fla. — Even as Mitt Romney and Representative Paul D. Ryan exhort Republicans to embrace their proposed Medicare changes and spending cuts, the party’s rank and file is growing less enthusiastic about the fight than the top of the ticket.

Republican lawmakers and candidates are distancing themselves from the Ryan budget plan, which helped make the proposed changes a national issue. Republicans say the party now belongs to the more senior — and historically more malleable — member of the ticket, Mr. Romney, and not Mr. Ryan, the younger conservative firebrand who has become the subject of repeated Democratic criticism.

Grim news for the Democrats.

 

[JoeB131]

Good points, all, Greenbeard.

The thing is, Over sixty was the only age demographic McCain won, so older voters do tend to skew Republican...

But I think when more of them realize what the Ryan plan is about, they won't.

 

[The Rabbi]

Gee, Pew lies almost as much as you do, snotbeard.

 

[The Rabbi]

Did you actually read the link you posted, because page four lists most of the polls taken in November and Ocotober and the mostly showed Reagan in the lead...

It's not November or October, yet.

 

[Katzndogz]

obama will WIN, WIN WIN.

That's why his slide in the polls is accelerating and it's still the weekend.

It will be interesting to see if obama gets anything from his own convention. Depending on how heavily democrats hit on social issues, ignoring economic issues, it might be none.

 

[Katzndogz]

Did you actually read the link you posted, because page four lists most of the polls taken in November and Ocotober and the mostly showed Reagan in the lead...

It's not November or October, yet.

Reagan did not take the lead until the debates.