Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #1
Talk Grows of a Michael Bloomberg Independent Run for 2016
I'm not an enormous fan of Newsmax and I would like to see this from some more sources, but the person quoted, Ian Bremmer (Time) is a straightforward type.
Go read the article.
At this point in time it's still essentially speculation, but I think, worth noting.
FYI.
-Stat
PS. Here is a quick look at the cycles in the last 100 or so years where there was a SERIOUS 3rd party run:
1912 - Teddy Roosevelt turned a third party into a second party. Taft (R) only got 8 EV. Roosevelt got 88 EV and came in with 27.4% of the NPV.
(1924 - Robert LaFollette - won his home state of Wisconsin, then worth 13 EV, and was on the ballot in a bevy of states, got 16.6% of the NPV)
1948 - Strom Thurmond (States Rights Party), won 4 deep southern states and 39 EV, but only 2.4% of the NPV.
1968 - George Wallace (American Independent Party), won 5 deep southern states and 46, EV, and with 13.5% of the NPV.
(1980 - John Anderson, 6.6% of the NPV, was not a credible challenger anywhere)
1992 - Ross Perot (Reform Party), won zero states and zero EV, but came in with almost 19% of the NPV on election night.
(1996 - Ross Perot - a mini-version of 1992, with the same non-results, only 8.4% of the NPV).
Notice that since 1948, a credible, serious, threatening 3rd party run has happened every 20 to 24 years. In 2016, it will be 24 years since Ross Perot's 1992 Independent run. So, in a way, you could almost say that we are maybe due for such a cycle to happen.
I'm not an enormous fan of Newsmax and I would like to see this from some more sources, but the person quoted, Ian Bremmer (Time) is a straightforward type.
Go read the article.
At this point in time it's still essentially speculation, but I think, worth noting.
FYI.
-Stat
PS. Here is a quick look at the cycles in the last 100 or so years where there was a SERIOUS 3rd party run:
1912 - Teddy Roosevelt turned a third party into a second party. Taft (R) only got 8 EV. Roosevelt got 88 EV and came in with 27.4% of the NPV.
(1924 - Robert LaFollette - won his home state of Wisconsin, then worth 13 EV, and was on the ballot in a bevy of states, got 16.6% of the NPV)
1948 - Strom Thurmond (States Rights Party), won 4 deep southern states and 39 EV, but only 2.4% of the NPV.
1968 - George Wallace (American Independent Party), won 5 deep southern states and 46, EV, and with 13.5% of the NPV.
(1980 - John Anderson, 6.6% of the NPV, was not a credible challenger anywhere)
1992 - Ross Perot (Reform Party), won zero states and zero EV, but came in with almost 19% of the NPV on election night.
(1996 - Ross Perot - a mini-version of 1992, with the same non-results, only 8.4% of the NPV).
Notice that since 1948, a credible, serious, threatening 3rd party run has happened every 20 to 24 years. In 2016, it will be 24 years since Ross Perot's 1992 Independent run. So, in a way, you could almost say that we are maybe due for such a cycle to happen.
I hope he runs as a democrat.
