Conservative
Type 40
People can post all the polls and models they want they are just snapshots of the moment.
That's not true of models in general. Nate Silver's model separately predicts how the election would turn out if held to today and how it will turn out in November. He uses economic variables to predict how people's voting preference will change. And a prediction market like Intrade is designed to predict the probability of a future event, rather than reflect a current reality. Both models and markets are imperfect of course, but if done properly they do have predictive power.
You been talking to Sheldon again?