Real Clear Politics presidential polling is far from real clear

Discussion in 'Politics' started by TheGreatGatsby, Jun 13, 2012.

  1. TheGreatGatsby
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    TheGreatGatsby Gold Member

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    I've been seeing for probably almost two months in poll after poll that Romney is ahead in the national average. Yes, RCP has him down in the national average by 0.8 percent? That just seems like a bold faced lie.

    And of course, the electoral map has shown Obama ahead by a considerable margin when it seems clear that if the election were held today that Romney would win.

    Now, I know it's not necessarily an ideological error (though it could be - I don't really follow RCP closely) b/c they use static formulas accounting for various polls, averaging for a wide margin of time. However, if the formula you are using is so inept then does that really count as real clear?
     
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    Last edited: Jun 13, 2012
  2. signelect
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    signelect BANNED

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    I believe that you can get a poll to show anything you want. Just pay them and tell them what outcome you are looking for.
     
  3. Katzndogz
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    Katzndogz Diamond Member

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    The numbers just aren't there for obama. They can manipulate it any way they want, slice the pie into rectangles, but the numbers aren't there.
     
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  4. blackhawk
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    blackhawk Gold Member

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    Real clear is pretty much on par with the other major polls most have Obama up by 1-3 points a statistical tie Rasmussen varies a bit having Romney up by 4 mainly because they poll likely voters where the others poll registered voters.
     
  5. J.E.D
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    J.E.D What's tha matta?

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    Which polls are you referring to, Gatsby? Pretty much every poll I've seen has Obama beating Romney by a few points.
     
  6. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Gold Member

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    Everybody with half a brain realizes that the RCP averages are scewed in favor of lefty candidates. If you notice, the k00k radical libs on here jump out of their shorts trying to post up RCP avearges all the time.
     
  7. Meister
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    Meister VIP Member Supporting Member

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  8. Leweman
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    Leweman Gold Member

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    votes matter ... polls don't
     
  9. Conservative
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    Conservative Type 40

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    it is far from clear that if the election were held today, Romney would win.

    As for the electoral map, that depends on whose you look at. HuffPo orgininally had Obama at over 300, but revised it downward a few times to it's present 270 (funny... they give him exactly what he needs to win).

    I averaged the numbers for 270towin, RCP, HuffPo, Washington Post, NYT, CNN and CBS... Obama 223, Romney 201.

    22 is hardly a 'considerable margin'.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2012
  10. TheGreatGatsby
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    TheGreatGatsby Gold Member

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    I think it's clear that Romney would win, though Obama is within the margin of error.

    Romney is up in the polls (I semi trust) in NC, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Arizona. And the last Virginia poll I saw weeks ago before the recent Obama meltdown, Romney was only down 0.8 (and it wasn't a likely voter poll, it was a registered voter poll).

    I also believe that the undecideds will go in Romney's favor and he'll win Pennsylvania too. I don't think it's even close right now in terms of the electoral outlook. That seems to be supported by the popular vote polls as well.

    A lot could happen between now and November, but right now my money is on Romney getting at least 300 electoral votes. Yet you go to RCP and Huffpo or whereever and they cunningly show Obama ahead (though not always at 270).

    I can understand b/c of the methodologies they're using. They're not calling closely contested states. But I think if there was a website with editors who had balls, they'd make the calls and show Romney winning. :badgrin:
     

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