Disir
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- Sep 30, 2011
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RAND assumes, as do many US reports, that any clash with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will be not too unthinkable, fought exclusively in Asia, and inevitably end with the US prevailing.
And conventional weapons only. No nukes!
It cannot be entirely excluded that the Chinese leadership would decide that only the use of nuclear weapons would prevent total defeat and the state’s destruction. However, even under such desperate conditions, the resort to nuclear weapons would not be China’s only option.
According to RAND the optimal cost-benefit scenario for the PRC: Surrender!
It could instead accept defeat. Indeed, because U.S. nuclear retaliation would make the destruction of the state and collapse of the country all the more certain, accepting defeat would be a better option (depending on the severity of U.S. terms) than nuclear escalation. This logic, along with China’s ingrained no-first-use policy, suggests that Chinese first use is most improbable.
Unsurprisingly, all of RAND’s scenarios are pretty sunny, for the simple reason that, with nukes out of the picture, conventional war will be fought and won over the Chinese homeland while the closest US civilians will come to the conflict will be Wolf Blitzer and CNN.
And the Chinese would be good with that, at least according to RAND. Hey, America’s destroying our country, but we’ll take a beating, capitulate, and accept the national humiliation of submitting to the superior force of the United States.
RAND’s ‘Unthinkable’ war with China
So here is the report and you can read it for yourself before the nutters finish digesting it.
War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable | RAND
And conventional weapons only. No nukes!
It cannot be entirely excluded that the Chinese leadership would decide that only the use of nuclear weapons would prevent total defeat and the state’s destruction. However, even under such desperate conditions, the resort to nuclear weapons would not be China’s only option.
According to RAND the optimal cost-benefit scenario for the PRC: Surrender!
It could instead accept defeat. Indeed, because U.S. nuclear retaliation would make the destruction of the state and collapse of the country all the more certain, accepting defeat would be a better option (depending on the severity of U.S. terms) than nuclear escalation. This logic, along with China’s ingrained no-first-use policy, suggests that Chinese first use is most improbable.
Unsurprisingly, all of RAND’s scenarios are pretty sunny, for the simple reason that, with nukes out of the picture, conventional war will be fought and won over the Chinese homeland while the closest US civilians will come to the conflict will be Wolf Blitzer and CNN.
And the Chinese would be good with that, at least according to RAND. Hey, America’s destroying our country, but we’ll take a beating, capitulate, and accept the national humiliation of submitting to the superior force of the United States.
RAND’s ‘Unthinkable’ war with China
So here is the report and you can read it for yourself before the nutters finish digesting it.
War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable | RAND
