Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[konradv]

Seems Mitt has hit a roadblock, since he started lying about the jobs situation. Kiss Ohio good bye.

 

[Claudette]

Well. You can always hope.

Anyone who puts his faith in a poll is an idiot IMO.

Polls have to many variables to be taken seriously.

But hey. Whatever floats your boat.

Think I'll wait till Nov 7th to see who won.

 

[Inthemiddle]

The republicans will be able to claim very credibly that a few people in ohio and wisconsin may be able to decide who is the president but they dont speak for the electorate as to how they want the counrty governed.

Demonizing two of the most important battleground states in the Union....I wish them luck with that.

 

[Samson]

Who the hell is Nate Silverman and why should any of us care??!

He's the guy that the left pays to make an idiot out of himself by claiming this kind of sillyness.

So you're saying rdean and luddie are not paid.....

Gottchya.

 

[JimH52]

Well. You can always hope.

Anyone who puts his faith in a poll is an idiot IMO.

Polls have to many variables to be taken seriously.

But hey. Whatever floats your boat.

Think I'll wait till Nov 7th to see who won.

Yup....we will all do that!

 

[JimH52]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Still a few days until the vote....but

 

[SniperFire]

Where is Old Rocks at?

He had it around 340 months ago.


LOL



Fail.

 

[Leweman]

ahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha ... he will be lucky to get 200.

 

[JustSomeGuy]

Isn't Joe the one who tried the "Dear God" schtick? Yeah, real moderate there.

Anyway, I'll play. In 2008 FL was D+3; Quinnipiac has it D+7 this year. In 2008 Virginia was D+6; Quinnipiac has it D+8 this year. And finally, in 2008 Ohio was D+8; still a D+8. You believe that'll occur this year? Especially with Republicans far more enthusiastic this year than are Democrats?

 

[Intolerant]

And I'm da toof fairy.

 

[auditor0007]

I live in Ohio and if signs are an indication...Obama is winning about 3 to 1.

Yard signs are indicative of where you live. If you live in one of the cities like Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, or Toledo, or even Akron or Canton or Youngstown, you will see more Obama signs. If you live in rural areas, you'll have a hard time finding many. I live in what would be considered a suburb of Toledo and the yard signs are pretty evenly split. I would venture to guess that Obama does better in the entire metro Toledo area due to the auto industry having such an impact on this area.

 

[mamooth]

Up to 77.4% today.

 

[oldfart]

But do the polls take account of the effect of Williard's magic underwear?

 

[auditor0007]

Polls Show Two Swing-State Dems Leading - Hotline On Call

Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe used the word "desperation" for the first time, since Willard won the first debate. I expect many of you to call him another Democratic Hack, but he is one of the more reasonable Republicans out there.

In Ohio, Brown leads GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel by 9 points: 51 percent support to Mandel's 42 percent. Mandel leads among independent voters, 46 percent to 44 percent. Their previous poll, conducted the week prior, also had the race at 51 percent to 42 percent.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the state. The poll was conducted Oct. 23-28 and surveyed 1,110 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.9 percentage points.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are neck-and-neck in the same poll, with the president ahead, 48 percent to 47 percent. Mack has consistently underperformed Romney in public polling. The poll of 1,073 likely Florida voters was conducted Oct. 23-28. The margin of error for the survey is plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.

Quinnipiac is well known for its accuracy.

OKAY, YOU CAN BEGIN TELLING ME THIS POLL IS SKEWED NOW!

Romney has never led in Ohio. He got close but now the tide is heading back to Obama, no matter what cons want to believe. Secondly, Florida has been moving back toward Obama for the last two weeks. Romney was ahead there, and now it is pretty close to a dead heat. It doesn't necessarily mean Obama will win Florida, but his chances are getting better.

On top of everything, Sandy is going to play into the President's favor. There is still a small percentage of undecideds out there and his handling of the post hurricane relief over the next week will sway many of those undecideds to give him another chance. If I were running Obama's campaign, I would not have Obama make another campaign appearance. I would tell him to concentrate on acting presidential and doing what he can from Washington. I really believe he will get better positive response from voters going that route versus hitting the campaign trail over the next week.

 

[buckeye45_73]

You guys kill me......signs.... in gay areas will have more obama support

And nytimes polls? Didnt they just endorse obama?

 

[mamooth]

Voter enthusiasm.. registered voters who actually turn out..

There is no evidence that the Republican turnout advantage is going to be larger than its usual few points, and that's already accounted for in the polls. You're making the mistake of thinking that your deranged enthusiasm applies to everyone.

All trends show Romney moving up in every single swing state.

The exact opposite is true. For the past two weeks, Obama has been moving up in every single swing state. All the momentum is with Obama.

Obama has ruined the economy and destroyed foreign policy, TWO MAJOR SCANDALS, FAST N FURIOUS, BENGHAZI..

You're make the mistake of thinking everyone is as dumb as you are. Just because you were gullible enough to swallow all the idiot propaganda, that doesn't mean others are similarly gullible.

 

[auditor0007]

You guys kill me......signs.... in gay areas will have more obama support

And nytimes polls? Didnt they just endorse obama?

You seem to have this obsession with gays. Is that because you are a closet gay yourself? It seems that every other post you make has some reference to gays.

 

[U2Edge]

Polls Show Two Swing-State Dems Leading - Hotline On Call

Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe used the word "desperation" for the first time, since Willard won the first debate. I expect many of you to call him another Democratic Hack, but he is one of the more reasonable Republicans out there.

In Ohio, Brown leads GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel by 9 points: 51 percent support to Mandel's 42 percent. Mandel leads among independent voters, 46 percent to 44 percent. Their previous poll, conducted the week prior, also had the race at 51 percent to 42 percent.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the state. The poll was conducted Oct. 23-28 and surveyed 1,110 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.9 percentage points.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are neck-and-neck in the same poll, with the president ahead, 48 percent to 47 percent. Mack has consistently underperformed Romney in public polling. The poll of 1,073 likely Florida voters was conducted Oct. 23-28. The margin of error for the survey is plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.

Quinnipiac is well known for its accuracy.

OKAY, YOU CAN BEGIN TELLING ME THIS POLL IS SKEWED NOW!

What about Rasmussen Reports in Ohio. Their latest has Romney up by 2 points. Romney 50% Obama 48%.

Then, take a look at the poll of polls for the nation. In the Real Clear Politics poll of national polls, Romney has led EVERY DAY except for 3 since October 9. He currently leads by 0.8%. The Real Clear Politics poll of national polls was within 1 percentage point of the actual result for the popular vote in 2004 and essentially dead on for the popular vote in 2008. The candidate that wins the popular vote usually wins the electoral college as well. Whats more is that the State polls on average were off by 1.85 percentage points in 2004 and 2.25 percentage points in 2008. By comparison, the national polls on average were only off 0.9 percentage points in 2004 and 0.3 percentage points in 2008.

The race is very close and the national polls point to a small Romney victory while the State polls point to a small Obama victory. But with things this close and the margin of victory very small in both state and national polls on average, its important to note that at least in 2004 and 2008, the national polls were more accurate than the state polls.

So while the average of polls suggest an Obama victory by 2 points in Ohio on average, based on the margin of error in 2008, that could actually mean a Romney victory!

In any event, if Obama does win, it will be the weakest victory ever by an incumbent President in United States history!


Amazing that were at this point at all though. Prior to October, Obama had led EVERY SINGLE DAY in the national polls by margins that ranged for 4 percentage points to 6 percentage points. This is the average of the national polls. Overnight, things changed with the first debate. Months before the first debate, I had concluded that the election was over and that there was no way Romney could win based on the polling and given conditions in the country. I was already thinking about 2016. What a turn around. Many Obama supporters were feeling the same way. They thought they were insured victory. Even Obama thought that given his first debate performance. But now Obama and the Democrats are running scared. You can see it every time they bring up social issues that never mattered in any race before. I must say, after having concluded months ago that Romney was done period, this is fun to watch!

 

[Leweman]

I live in Ohio and if signs are an indication...Obama is winning about 3 to 1.

I live in ohio and if signs are an indication Romney is winning 3 to 1. Surprising considering the risk those people take of having their property destroyed by Obama supporters.

 

[Leweman]

How would Romney be crushing Obama in independents, which make up 1/3 of the electorate, but losing? The + Dem turnout would have to be huge and that's not gonna happen this year. Use some critical thinking when looking at these polls.