Post Convention Bounce

[kwc57]

actually, i have specified what i "like"...and that's the RPC average because it tends to be most accurate.

i wasn't setting conditions and didn't say 'don't post the poll'... but people on the right always use rasmussen. there's a reason for that.

however, if you rely on data, we have the right to comment on it. *shrug*

You do of course realize that RCP averages polls and many of the polls are organizations that are left leaning don't you? You do realize that it will translate into a higher liberal bent average don't you? I didn't pick Rasmussen because I'm conservative. I simply posted a story I came across that said the bounce was gone. I do believe that different organizations polling does indeed reflect their bias and since there are more liberal leaning organizations than conservative, the averages will reflect that. The tale will be told in the actual election.

I'll also point you back to a link I posted earlier from a 2008 article ranking the most accurate polls in 2008. Rasmussen and Pew tied as polling the closest to what actually happened.

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog

yes, i know that rasmussen proponents like talking about 2008/

but in 2010:

Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

Wait......aren't we discussing presidential election polling?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

I wonder how that bounce looks with what happen in Libya and obama's appeasement foreign policy?

 

[FA_Q2]

So much for that 6 point bounce.

RCP avg... obama 48.6 romney 45

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

but thanks for relying on the one poll you like.

The RCP average says the exact same thing in relation to the 6 point bounce: it’s over. Obama hold a NARROW 2 point lead. I don’t see how that is any different from the landscape before the conventions.
You are putting up a straw man here by attacking the source on who is ahead when the point of the thread is not who is in the lead but rather focuses on the bounce. The Obama bounce from the convention is over.

 

[jillian]

So much for that 6 point bounce.

RCP avg... obama 48.6 romney 45

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

but thanks for relying on the one poll you like.

The RCP average says the exact same thing in relation to the 6 point bounce: it’s over. Obama hold a NARROW 2 point lead. I don’t see how that is any different from the landscape before the conventions.
You are putting up a straw man here by attacking the source on who is ahead when the point of the thread is not who is in the lead but rather focuses on the bounce. The Obama bounce from the convention is over.

he also went up in the electoral college numbers for the first time in weeks.

it's now 237 to 191...

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

the RPC avg is still as I stated.

mitt is in major trouble after his handling of the tragedy in libya.

i think you're barking up the wrong tree. and, frankly, it's going to come down to the debates anyway.

but this wishful thinking that suddenly all the rightwing whinging killed the 'bounce'... and that's really what we're talking about... not quite yet.

 

[beretta304]

RCP avg... obama 48.6 romney 45

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

but thanks for relying on the one poll you like.

The RCP average says the exact same thing in relation to the 6 point bounce: it’s over. Obama hold a NARROW 2 point lead. I don’t see how that is any different from the landscape before the conventions.
You are putting up a straw man here by attacking the source on who is ahead when the point of the thread is not who is in the lead but rather focuses on the bounce. The Obama bounce from the convention is over.

he also went up in the electoral college numbers for the first time in weeks.

it's now 237 to 191...

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

the RPC avg is still as I stated.

mitt is in major trouble after his handling of the tragedy in libya.

i think you're barking up the wrong tree. and, frankly, it's going to come down to the debates anyway.

but this wishful thinking that suddenly all the rightwing whinging killed the 'bounce'... and that's really what we're talking about... not quite yet.

It's going to come down to one thing only...turnout. As far as the debates, the liberal media will say Obama won, the conservative media will say Romney won. The moderators are all libs. Romney can only hope to break even. The deck is stacked just like the incident yesterday caught on tape of the press coordinating gotcha questions on Libya. Whoever gets the majority of their base out, is the winner.

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/09/...coordinating-egyptlibya-questions-for-romney/

 

[jillian]

The RCP average says the exact same thing in relation to the 6 point bounce: it’s over. Obama hold a NARROW 2 point lead. I don’t see how that is any different from the landscape before the conventions.
You are putting up a straw man here by attacking the source on who is ahead when the point of the thread is not who is in the lead but rather focuses on the bounce. The Obama bounce from the convention is over.

he also went up in the electoral college numbers for the first time in weeks.

it's now 237 to 191...

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

the RPC avg is still as I stated.

mitt is in major trouble after his handling of the tragedy in libya.

i think you're barking up the wrong tree. and, frankly, it's going to come down to the debates anyway.

but this wishful thinking that suddenly all the rightwing whinging killed the 'bounce'... and that's really what we're talking about... not quite yet.

It's going to come down to one thing only...turnout. As far as the debates, the liberal media will say Obama won, the conservative media will say Romney won. The moderators are all libs. Romney can only hope to break even. The deck is stacked just like the incident yesterday caught on tape of the press coordinating gotcha questions on Libya. Whoever gets the majority of their base out, is the winner.

Audio: Press caught on open mic coordinating Egypt/Libya questions for Romney? « Hot Air

you're right about what media will say... and the usual spin doctors will be out there. but the last remaining undecideds WILL respond. And I don't think Romney's likable enough or knows enough to win the debates in a fashion that will get us a win.

There are also other issues now which didn't exist two days ago. Our embassies in Libya and Yemen have been attacked now. How that's handled will be meaningful, which is why you're seeing the hysteria on the right to try to fix romney's ham-handed handling of the attack.

 

[jillian]

You do of course realize that RCP averages polls and many of the polls are organizations that are left leaning don't you? You do realize that it will translate into a higher liberal bent average don't you? I didn't pick Rasmussen because I'm conservative. I simply posted a story I came across that said the bounce was gone. I do believe that different organizations polling does indeed reflect their bias and since there are more liberal leaning organizations than conservative, the averages will reflect that. The tale will be told in the actual election.

I'll also point you back to a link I posted earlier from a 2008 article ranking the most accurate polls in 2008. Rasmussen and Pew tied as polling the closest to what actually happened.

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog

yes, i know that rasmussen proponents like talking about 2008/

but in 2010:

Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

Wait......aren't we discussing presidential election polling?

i thought we were talking about their polling in general since we can't look at one election in a vacuum.

 

[beretta304]

he also went up in the electoral college numbers for the first time in weeks.

it's now 237 to 191...

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

the RPC avg is still as I stated.

mitt is in major trouble after his handling of the tragedy in libya.

i think you're barking up the wrong tree. and, frankly, it's going to come down to the debates anyway.

but this wishful thinking that suddenly all the rightwing whinging killed the 'bounce'... and that's really what we're talking about... not quite yet.

It's going to come down to one thing only...turnout. As far as the debates, the liberal media will say Obama won, the conservative media will say Romney won. The moderators are all libs. Romney can only hope to break even. The deck is stacked just like the incident yesterday caught on tape of the press coordinating gotcha questions on Libya. Whoever gets the majority of their base out, is the winner.

Audio: Press caught on open mic coordinating Egypt/Libya questions for Romney? « Hot Air

you're right about what media will say... and the usual spin doctors will be out there. but the last remaining undecideds WILL respond. And I don't think Romney's likable enough or knows enough to win the debates in a fashion that will get us a win.

There are also other issues now which didn't exist two days ago. Our embassies in Libya and Yemen have been attacked now. How that's handled will be meaningful, which is why you're seeing the hysteria on the right to try to fix romney's ham-handed handling of the attack.

The only "stat" if one wants to call it that is the one voters render on Election Day.

Contrary to what you misinterpret the polls telling you....it's far closer than you think. The debates won't help or hurt either unless one of them makes a giant gaff.

 

[FA_Q2]

he also went up in the electoral college numbers for the first time in weeks.

it's now 237 to 191...

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

the RPC avg is still as I stated.

mitt is in major trouble after his handling of the tragedy in libya.

i think you're barking up the wrong tree. and, frankly, it's going to come down to the debates anyway.

but this wishful thinking that suddenly all the rightwing whinging killed the 'bounce'... and that's really what we're talking about... not quite yet.

It's going to come down to one thing only...turnout. As far as the debates, the liberal media will say Obama won, the conservative media will say Romney won. The moderators are all libs. Romney can only hope to break even. The deck is stacked just like the incident yesterday caught on tape of the press coordinating gotcha questions on Libya. Whoever gets the majority of their base out, is the winner.

Audio: Press caught on open mic coordinating Egypt/Libya questions for Romney? « Hot Air

you're right about what media will say... and the usual spin doctors will be out there. but the last remaining undecideds WILL respond. And I don't think Romney's likable enough or knows enough to win the debates in a fashion that will get us a win.

There are also other issues now which didn't exist two days ago. Our embassies in Libya and Yemen have been attacked now. How that's handled will be meaningful, which is why you're seeing the hysteria on the right to try to fix romney's ham-handed handling of the attack.

Hysteria on the right? Please. There is no hysteria there. You are doing exactly what the media and pundits are going to do. The left is going to see Romney and bungling this and Obama handling it properly and the right is going to see the exact opposite. Romney didn’t bungle anything. He made a statement because he had to make the statement. If he had said nothing, the left would have been just as critical, if not more. IMHO, none of this matters at this moment anyway because we have not seen anything actually happen. Statements are meaningless and I actually doubt there is going to be anything that actually comes out of this debacle. Mostly, it will be forgotten in a month.

Now the debates, that is going to be interesting. Normally (and a few months ago) I would have told you that Romney would have whooped Obama in the debates and quite frankly, Romney has a clear advantage there. I think Obama is going to take them now though and here is why: If I am not mistaken, the foreign policy is the last one. This is bad for Romney because Obama’s strongest trait lies in his foreign policy. Romney does not have enough to attack here to do any damage and Obama is going to take the ‘kill’ list of terrorists headed with OBL all the way to the bank here. As much or a fuck up as I think Obama is, I have to give him some credit in the foreign policy area. He has done better than anyone else would have done in his position as far as I can tell. That is a low bar but meh.

The remaining debates I believe will have a lot of Obama bashing Romney over the head with Ryan. That is going to be the clincher. Throwing grandma off a cliff is the idea of the day and if Obama uses this properly, I think he can put Romney on the defensive and really come out on top. I might be wrong on this but that what it looks like to me and why I think Ryan wan not a good pick.


BTW, I never hinted at any rightwing ‘whining’ killing anything. The bounce dies because that is all it is, a bounce. Such things don’t tend to be long lasting because they are not based on anything meaningful. What would change the numbers to Obama in the conventions? Nothing, they are pandering smooch fests for their respective bases.

 

[kwc57]

It's going to come down to one thing only...turnout. As far as the debates, the liberal media will say Obama won, the conservative media will say Romney won. The moderators are all libs. Romney can only hope to break even. The deck is stacked just like the incident yesterday caught on tape of the press coordinating gotcha questions on Libya. Whoever gets the majority of their base out, is the winner.

Audio: Press caught on open mic coordinating Egypt/Libya questions for Romney? « Hot Air

you're right about what media will say... and the usual spin doctors will be out there. but the last remaining undecideds WILL respond. And I don't think Romney's likable enough or knows enough to win the debates in a fashion that will get us a win.

There are also other issues now which didn't exist two days ago. Our embassies in Libya and Yemen have been attacked now. How that's handled will be meaningful, which is why you're seeing the hysteria on the right to try to fix romney's ham-handed handling of the attack.

The only "stat" if one wants to call it that is the one voters render on Election Day.

Contrary to what you misinterpret the polls telling you....it's far closer than you think. The debates won't help or hurt either unless one of them makes a giant gaff.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

Romney 47%
Obama 46%