Possible 900,000 jobs lost?

Discussion in 'Economy' started by MalibuMan, Nov 12, 2009.

  1. MalibuMan
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    MalibuMan Member

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  2. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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  3. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    I lean towards Neubarth's position with two Caveats:

    We have not yet reached 25% unemployment to overtake the 1930s but momentum will take us there in terms of U6 or SGS data since by every reasonable measure UE is 18-22%. However the kill date in the UE benefits extension act (01/01/10) could screw up UE reporting from all sources for upto a year.

    There is very little data on the post-revolutionary depression of 1783-95(?) and even less on the double whammy of the Mississippi scheme and South Sea Bubble of the 1720s and both of those downturns were probably worse than the 1930s. Proving something in the absence of data for comparisons is very rough indeed.

    That said the deterioration in the economy from real estate peaks (25 vs. 06) to unemployment greater than 10% has been much more rapid this time than in the 1930s. UE did not begin to trend up until 27/28 vs. 07/08. Progression past the traditional 10% UE depression mark less than 27 months from the Real Estate crash by government measure (and even less by all other estimates) this time vs. 57 months for the 1930s. That sure looks like a lot worse than the 1930s to me. And by the way I have sandbagged on a lot of metrics so feel free to attack.
     
  4. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    When has a stimulus ever solved these problems?

    The only stimulus in a capitalist economy is profit.

    "Nor is this remote port in western Japan unusual. Japan’s rural areas have been paved over and filled in with roads, dams and other big infrastructure projects, the legacy of trillions of dollars spent to lift the economy from a severe downturn caused by the bursting of a real estate bubble in the late 1980s. During those nearly two decades, Japan accumulated the largest public debt in the developed world — totaling 180 percent of its $5.5 trillion economy — while failing to generate a convincing recovery.

    Now, as the Obama administration embarks on a similar path, proposing to spend more than $820 billion to stimulate the sagging American economy, many economists are taking a fresh look at Japan’s troubled experience. While Japan is not exactly comparable to the United States — especially as a late developer with a history of heavy state investment in infrastructure — economists say it can still offer important lessons about the pitfalls, and chances for success, of a stimulus package in an advanced economy. "
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/wo...prod=permalink


    "Beginning in 1991-1992, Japan adopted the spending approach now advocated by many in the U.S. Congress when it embarked on a massive nationwide program of infrastructure investment. Between 1992 and 2000, Japan implemented 10 separate spending stimulus packages in which public infrastructure investment was a major component.
    …
    Combined with increases in other government spending programs, Japan’s efforts to spend its way to prosperity led to substantial increases in government spending as a share of GDP. … Japan’s failed policies had severe negative consequences for its economy and citizens. …[M]easured in inflation-adjusted GDP growth, Japan went from being a high-growth country in the 1980s to a slow-growth country during the 1990s. … For the average Japanese citizen, the chief consequence of this economic underperformance has been both a relative and an absolute decline in the nation’s standard of living, defined by per capita GDP as measured by the World Bank and adjusted for differences in purchasing power parity (PPP)."
    Learning from Japan’s Big Debt Spending Failure » The Foundry
     
  5. manu1959
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    manu1959 Left Coast Isolationist

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    900,000 lost....but imagine how many would have been lost if th O-man had not saved us......


    as for a double dip....anything is possible......
     
  6. The Rabbi
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    The Rabbi Diamond Member

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    Op ed in this AM"s Wall St Journal about how cutting the payroll tax at the start of Obama's administration would have cost the same but saved millions of jobs.
    So the stimulus was a big waste of money, which many of us predicted at the time.
     
  7. eagleseven
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    eagleseven Quod Erat Demonstrandum

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    I'm using this downturn to get the education I need to break into one of the few industries still intact: healthcare. Easier said than done, of course.
     
  8. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    My wife works for Mayo clinic Jax. Her advice to everyone: get any job at a decent hospital and use employee reimbursement to pay for the education needed to move up the ladder. What you hear from public and private schools is often off the wall to some degree. Ads for insurance coding training air all of the time but pay is so-so after continuing education costs and professional courtesy for treatments is often lacking. On the otherhand sonogram courses take less than a year, licensure and any degree qualifies you as an instructor and as the safest imaging technology it is growing by leaps and bounds. There may be even better deals out there but being a tenured junior college lab instructor for the medical field is purportedly as good as it gets for job satisfaction.
     
  9. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    How do you figure? The Unemployment Rate survey (the Current Population Survey) doesn't ask about UI benefits...Whether or not someone is eligible or receives UI benefits has never been part of UE rate calculations.
     
  10. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    I was misinformed? I was told that those receiving UI who did not report interviews and apps to the UE office were dropped from the laborforce as discouraged workers but not necessarily from UE depending on skills and the local labor market, this is wrong? Because these people are listed separately from the unemployed but if dropped from UE while not reporting recent job searches the individual does not show up in the laborforce in any category so far as I can tell. Please show me how this is phrased in the 6 categories of unemployment published by the BLS?
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2009

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