UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS report

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, Nov 12, 2009.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Here we go again. The Gov lies and says claims are continuing to go down while the real numbers prove that the government is lying for the 21st out of the last 27 times.


    UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

    SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA


    In the week ending Nov. 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 502,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 514,000.

    UNADJUSTED DATA

    The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 529,446 in the week ending Nov. 7, an increase of 46,904 from the previous week.
     
  2. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    As the UI claims numbers increase week after week as they have been doing on average, and the government numbers say the UI claims are going down week after week, it is obvious we are dealing with a horribly corrupt government.

    I have shown the naysayers on this board over and over again how the Gov numbers can switch up and down from week to week to week to week in a four week period. That in itself proves that the gov adjustments are not seasonal, but imaginary, dependent upon the needs of the government propaganda machine. (Josef Goebbles has been resurrected.)

    Fact remains that we are a predominant service sector economy, and increasing unemployment results in more unemployment. We are in the slow falling stack of cards phase that I have been warning about for years now. It is like a very slow motion collapse of a house of cards. You can see it happening week after week inspite of the Obama administration lies to the contrary.
     
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  3. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    AND HERE IS THE CAPPER on the way to the crapper.

    Nov 12 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/31 5631K Previously 5770K

    Not only do they consistently lie about UI claims going down, but now they want people to think that the seven million who have recently been disowned from the labor force do not matter, as Continuing Claims are decreasing too.

    Are people actually dumb enough to pay attention to the government propaganda????
     
  4. mascale
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    mascale VIP Member

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    The answer is in the vegetation, behind you(?).

    Even on the West Coast, we have seasons. Seasons are different from one another. Things that are expected in one season, are often not expected in others: So adjustments get made, and the bears go to sleep.

    On the West Coast, even the bears can become bored.

    And so on the West Coast, there is even new kinds of vegetation. No one really knows, how things might change, admittedly!

    "Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
    (Understanding Philosophy: If a bear does number two in the forest, and no one sees or hears it--still it can be inferred that it probably happened.)
     
  5. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Remember, I have pointed out for all to see that the government does not do seasonal adjustments. The modifications go up one week and down the next, and will do so for weeks at a time. If they were seasonal adjustments, there would be some consistency to the numbers.

    Quite frankly there is no logical reason to adjust actual unemployment insurance claims for any season be it Winter, Spring, Summer of Fall. All the seasonal adjustments are is an excuse to try to cover up the actual Unemployment Problem.

    Obama needs to be impeached for all of the thousands of lies his administration has used to try to delude the public. That son of a bitch has got to go. NOW!
     
  6. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    No, you've made the unsubstantiated claim that the government doesn't do seasonal adjustment. [qutoe]The modifications go up one week and down the next, and will do so for weeks at a time. If they were seasonal adjustments, there would be some consistency to the numbers.[/quote]Why? I'm honestly puzzled as to why you think seasonal adjustment would mean consistantly up or down for a period of time.

    [qutoe]Quite frankly there is no logical reason to adjust actual unemployment insurance claims for any season be it Winter, Spring, Summer of Fall. [/quote] Yes, there is. There are seasonal variations (and "seasonal" in this sense does NOT mean Spring, Summer, Winter, Fall, but rather trends for particular months/weeks that are fairly consistant over time). For example, every year in Nov/Dec there's an increase in hiring in the retail industry, and a decrease in the construction industry etc. Every year at about the same time, we see fairly consistant movements. These disguise what the actual trend is, much like if you measure the water level at high tide one day and low tide the next. If you did that, without figuring the tide into your calculation, you'd think there was a massive drop in water level. So you have to take the tidal variation out of the equation. Same thing with labor market statistics.

    Seasonal adjustment for UI claims gives a better picture of the real week to week trends than the raw data because it accounts for regular, predictable variations in claims.


    Please show any differences in statistical methodology between Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Reagan etc. Oh, wait, there aren't any.
     
  7. mascale
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    mascale VIP Member

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    First there is the seasonal adjustment, then come the abberations from that. When the reported claims data are flat for a period of time, then anyone concludes that something unusual has not occurred. And then there is the alternative.

    "Crow, James Crow: Shaken Not Stirred!"
    (For example: On the one hand, first there was George Bush II, Terms I and II. There was a lot of adjusted data involved, depending on the seasons--or something--or a lot of them. Now there is Obama. That would be said an abberation. That even includes, "The Reagan Trajectory!" Bill Clinton is more or less, not in the running, anymore.)
     
  8. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    Both continuing claims and new claims are falling.

    Continuing claims.

    [​IMG]

    New claims.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Last edited: Nov 14, 2009
  10. uscitizen
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    uscitizen Senior Member

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    The house of cards was primarially built by the republicans and supported by many demoncrats.
     

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