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-Poll Indicates French May Vote No to EU Constitution
Received Thursday, 17 March 2005 21:59:00 GMT
http://www.ttc.org/200503172159.j2hlxi606742.htm
PARIS, March 17 (AFP) - For the first time a majority of French say they plan to vote 'no' in the national referendum on the European constitution to be held in May, according to a poll to be published Friday in the daily Le Parisien.
According to the poll, carried out by the CSA institute, 51 percent intend to vote 'no' and 49 percent 'yes'.
Less than half of French voters are likely to vote in the May 29 referendum, with 53 percent of respondents saying they will abstain or cast blank ballots.
The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday among a representative sample of 802 over the age of 18.
The margin of error were not immediately available.
The latest poll is likely to worry French President Jacques Chirac, who has been campaigning hard for a yes vote.
But the French electorate, angry over economic and labour reforms imposed by the conservative government and wary over Chirac's push to have Turkey become an EU member in the future, is in a volatile mood.
Street protests have been gathering pace in recent weeks and reached a crescendo last Thursday with a crippling national strike in a scene reminiscent of demonstrations in 1995 that eventually brought down the previous centre-right government.
With public support slipping away and the prospect of France -- one of the founding states of the EU, and its second-biggest economy -- becoming the country that torpedoes the EU constitution, Chirac had brought forward plans for the referendum.
Late last month, both houses of the French parliament held a rare joint session in the palace of Versailles to modify France's 1958 constitution so that the referendum on the EU charter can go ahead.
The main parties, Chirac's ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) and the opposition Socialists, have officially backed a 'yes' vote, though both have dissident members who say they will join the Communist Party and the far right in voting against.
Former EU commission president Jacques Delors warned of a "political cataclysm" in France in the case of a 'no' vote, in an interview to be published Friday by the newspaper Le Progres.
"If the 'no' prevails, France will be in for a political cataclysm," he said. "In Europe, it will open a very serious crisis which will slow down European construction, to the disadvantage of France," he said.
Delors said he was opposed to calling a referendum to adopt the constitution as a vote by parliament "is as important democratically as a referendum".
The constitution aims to streamline decision-making and forge a more coherent joint foreign policy in the European Union, which is finding its current procedures -- often requiring the unanimity of members -- unwieldy following the bloc's expansion last year from 15 to 25 states.
France and another nine EU member states are to call their voters out to decide the matter. Denmark announced late last month that it would hold its plebiscite on September 27.
Britain -- whose citizens are the most eurosceptic in the European Union -- has yet to announce a date for its referendum, reluctantly agreed to by Prime Minister Tony Blair, though it looks likely to take place in the first half of 2006.
The remaining 15 EU members have decided to ratify the charter through their parliaments, without putting it directly before voters -- a choice that has generated some resentment, particularly in Germany, the EU's biggest economy and biggest contributor to EU coffers.
Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia have already ratified the constitution via parliamentary vote.
You mean they won't be able to build terrorist recuitment centers? :teeth:padisha emperor said:Did Germany vote with a Referendum ? i believe it is forbidden isn't it ?
How do they vote ? Bundesrat ? Bundestag ? both ?
THe problem in France is that a lot of people will vote NO but not against the Treaty about an European Constitution (and it is not really a Constitution, but a treaty), but against the JP Raffarin's Governement. So,j the governement should certainly be blamed, but not with this vote.
Now, the Bolkestein directive gives some arguments for the NO camp.
But a NO would "destruct" some advances in the european construction.
-Shockwave in France After Poll Shows Rejection of EU Constitution
Fri Mar 18,11:59 AM ET
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20050318/wl_afp/franceeuconstitution_050318165954
PARIS (AFP) - France was hit by a political shockwave after an opinion poll for the first time suggested that a majority of the public could reject the EU's constitution treaty at a referendum in ten weeks' time.
After weeks in which the "no" camp has made steady but unspectacular progress among a minority of voters, the survey in Le Parisien newspaper on Friday showed a sudden leap to 51 percent -- putting the "noes" ahead of the "yes" vote by two points.
According to the CSA survey, support for the "no" vote grew from 31 percent six months ago to 37 percent in mid-February before spurting ahead just as the country went through a period of mass anti-government strikes and demonstrations.
A spokeswoman for the European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union, said the poll result was "of course, worrying."
She said the sudden increase in no votes were caused by the confusion in the public's mind of the debate over the constitution and the commission's proposals for the liberalization of public services in Europe, which are widely opposed in France.
The no vote appeared a week after a strike of French public service workers.
The commission spokeswoman, Francoise Le Bail, said the commission hoped that when passions cool, the French along with other Europeans would be able to vote in full knowledge of the facts.
The figures were disastrous news for President Jacques Chirac, who has put his political weight behind the EU constitution, and showed the difficulties of mobilising support for a document that few members of the public pretend to understand clearly.
They were also a blow to the opposition Socialist party (PS) which is officially campaigning for the constitution but is riven by a deep internal split. Embarrassingly, the CSA poll showed that a clear majority of Socialist supporters -- 59 percent -- oppose the text.
A rejection of the constitution in the vote on May 29 would have enormous implications, both in France and across the EU.
The document -- which among other aims is meant to streamline decision-making in the expanding bloc -- must be ratified in all 25 member states, and it is hard to see how it could survive in its existing form if turned down in one of the EU's largest and most important countries.
The French former president of the European Commission Jacques Delors warned Thursday that a "no" vote would cause a "political cataclysm" in France. "And in Europe it will open up a very serious crisis which will slow down European construction -- at the expense of French interests," he said.
Several factors were being presented Friday as explanations for the surging success of the "no" camp in France -- including the unpopularity of Chirac's centre-right government, fears over Turkish entry into the EU, as well as the proposal to liberalize EU service industries.
The so-called Bolkestein directive -- named after a former Dutch commissioner for the EU's internal market -- has dominated the news in France in the last weeks, allowing opponents to portray it as a symbol of Europe's general surrender to big business interests.
Described by former Socialist prime minister Laurent Fabius as a "foretaste of the European constitution," the directive would make it possible for service-providers such as architects or accountants to operate across the 25 members.
But opponents say it would lead to "social dumping" as business and jobs relocate to the low-cost economies of eastern Europe. Spotting the political danger, Chirac has himself condemned the directive -- but as an issue it has played strongly into the hands of his opponents.
Supporters of the constitution argued that the "yes" campaign has yet to get under way -- and that once the advantages are properly explained the public will understand the importance of voting yes.
"The campaign is only just beginning ... This is about Europe and France and nothing else. The 'yes' is in the interests of France. It is of capital importance that the French get excited by the debate," said Nicolas Sarkozy, the popular head of the ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party.
Supporters say that by creating the posts of EU president and foreign minister, and simplifying the EU's internal voting system, the constitution will give Europe a coherent voice on the word stage.
But Chirac is haunted by fears that voters will use the EU referendum as an opportunity to punish his government -- at a time when growing unemployment, falling disposable incomes and record profits for top companies have combined to build a mood of popular discontent.
Memories are strong of the 1992 referendum on the Maastricht treaty which was won by just a whisker after the "yes" vote fell sharply in the campaign.
And Chirac also knows that many left-wingers resent having been made to vote for him against far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen in the May second round of the 2002 presidential election, and will jump at the chance to make his life difficult exactly three years later.
