Our presence in Iraq, one unintended positive development?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by TR_GOP, Dec 5, 2008.

  1. TR_GOP
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    TR_GOP Member

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    Did anyone catch the CNN roundtable on the challenges facing the Obama Administration last night? It was noted that Iran is carefully sending signals that it desires a Paradigm shift in the Iranian-US relationship model. Iran's Ambassador to Iraq (name escapes me) is a leader within the elite military organization that has been training and equipping militia members in IED ordinance and small unit tactics, and even he has developed a marked willingness to engage in diplomacy with US representatives.

    Aside from Obama's election I'm wondering if the continued presence of US forces inside Iraq has unintentionally aided in shifting their opinions on American society? Of course guerrilla warfare isn't exactly an ideal way to get to know your adversaries, but stay with me. First a review of General Petraeus' strategy that ultimately proved successful;

    The surge has ended: the additional units are out of Iraq. The gains are holding, with monthly US military fatalities dramatically down, from a peak of 126 as the surge got under way to 18 last month. They are holding because the surge involved much more than extra US troops.

    Militarily, it underpinned the switch, masterminded by General Petraeus, to a counter-insurgency strategy that moved forces out of barracks into Iraqi streets with a mission to protect the Iraqi population and earn their trust. Politically, the surge sent the all-important message that the US was not, after all, going to cut its losses and run.

    That altered the dynamics in Iraq. Factions that had been jostling for power ahead of America's discomfited departure realised that the US would stay around until it could in some confidence leave Iraq to manage its own destiny. The Sunni switch to alliance with US forces was the most dramatic consequence, a turnaround that General Petraeus shrewdly encouraged and financed. Political conciliation is not yet a fact but at least it is talked about.


    Think about the pattern of warfare Iran last experienced during the Iran-Iraq war, it was vicious, brutal, and barbaric. Placed in comparison our revised strategy displays the best traits of the US serviceman. Deadly when confronted but genuinely more interested in working out conditions for peace than destroying or subjugating a population. Of course our commitments to Israel remains a bone of contention, but by being in such close proximity to an adversary for such a length of time affords the opportunity to reconsider opinions formed by long held suspicions and rumor.

    Maybe they've learned something about America from daily observance of our military along with first hand accounts from Iraqis? And besides, we did eliminate their greatest threat (Saddam).
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2008
  2. BlackAsCoal
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    BlackAsCoal Gold Member

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    Iran has no intention of stopping their development of nuclear weapons .. nor should they in my opinon.

    They agree with the Iraqi government proposals for US withdrawal because the Iraqi government is Shite. Shrewd move.

    In the end, neither Iraq nor Iran .. which eventually seem like the same entity .. will be dependent nor beholden to the US .. and the Obama Administration, which is totally beholden to Israel, will not be able to move outside of the box that has constrained every American administration from seeking true peace and equity in the region.
     
  3. DiamondDave
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    DiamondDave Army Vet

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    I kinda hope they don't stop their development of Nuke technology too... I will enjoy watching video of the Israelis putting smoldering craters all over that country
     
  4. Red Dawn
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    Red Dawn Senior Member

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    I always say, that republicans love war.
     
  5. TR_GOP
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    TR_GOP Member

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    No one expects them to give up on their nuclear program. I'm not convinced Iran is suicidal either. They want recognition and status. Their nuclear program an element towards achieving that end, but establishing diplomatic ties with the US is even more valuable. In Iran's eyes the best scenario is achieving both aims, but which do you thinks offers more; being isolated into a corner with a bomb, or moving into the center stage of international politics (and all the economic and internal political advantages)?

    Is the US in a position to physically seize and destroy Iran's underground nuclear development facilities while simutaneously working the Pakistani-Taliban issue? Iran quietly assisted the US during the opening months of the Afghanistan conflict. Should Pakistan become more unstable we might need an Iranian port and an air corridor in order to maintain our Afghan presence.
     
  6. DiamondDave
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    DiamondDave Army Vet

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    Love war? Nah.. Accept it? Yep... Enjoy when an evil enemy is finally ass-kicked? Yep

    It's like when I did serve... Did I look forward to being put into a combat situation? Nope.... Did I celebrate when we accomplished what we had to and kicked some ass? Yep
     
  7. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    As more and more unstable nations develop nuclear capability, eventually a city in some industrialized nation will be a smoking hole in the ground. And there will not be a nation state to blame. Attacking any nation as a result of the terrorist action will result in the creation of more terrorists. Does anyone see a nice feedback loop here? Time to treat terrorism as what it actually is, a problem for police work. Using the military to root out terrorists, particulary when several nations are involved, is liking lancing a boil with a ten pound sledge.
     
  8. Old Rocks
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    No matter what war, no matter who speaks these words, it all ends up the same. Evil enemy, a wonderful phrase, to be used by anybody in any cause. And make sure no one takes photos of the dead children.
     
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  9. BlackAsCoal
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    BlackAsCoal Gold Member

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    I bet you think "anti-semitism" is why Israel is the most hated nation on the planet.

    Any idea what the blowback from that will be?

    What happens if Iran comes under the SCO umbrella?

    Are you under the illusion that Iran can be prevented from acquiring nukes?

    Are you ready to get your natural resources from Isreal?

    Iran has every right to acquire the same weapons Israel has .. which will definately shift the balance of power.
     
  10. BlackAsCoal
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    Surely you don't believe Iran is ever going to give the US access to it's ports.

    Americans always believe that if we don't have relations with a country, they are thus "isolated" .. but that is quite often not the case as evidenced by not only Iran, but Venezula. Look no further than the emergence of the SCO, which includes the ever emerging powers of China and India. AND, even europe wants to forge its own way independent of US desires.. North Korea is that example.

    The bottom line is the US is no longer in control, and with a faltering economy and Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Russia, Syria, Latin America, and Iran all on our plate along with a plethora of other issues .. such as Israeli domionance of our foreign policy, it would be unwise to believe that the Iranians don't smell blood in the water.

    I view their recent actions as very shrewd, but not necessarily a good development for US Israeli dominated foreign policy.
     

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