Oiling Economies

[topspin]

the $10 price of oil in 99 was low by historical standards.
Gas at $2.5 is a great bargan, SUV's and big ass trucks (thanks rednecks) are back on the prowl.

 

[loosecannon]

No, it means that I think it is possible for causation and correlation to exist side by side.

I may have misunderstood your theory tho. I could have sworn you were saying that the narrative and public response to it was the causation of a few dollar lunges.

Or maybe you misunderstood what I meant by political events. Dunno.

 

[antagon]

No, it means that I think it is possible for causation and correlation to exist side by side.

I may have misunderstood your theory tho. I could have sworn you were saying that the narrative and public response to it was the causation of a few dollar lunges.

Or maybe you misunderstood what I meant by political events. Dunno.

...the narrative and market response to it... 'the public' couldn't define QE better than 1:50.

"price increases could be triggered by political events." for me this is a valid observation of causation, although acute. are you saying this is correlation?

i don't doubt the propensity for producers to seize and exploit the tolerance of a market to higher prices. i think this is (part of) the case with the oil supply and the price bubble which coincided with the iraq war.

 

[JiggsCasey]

JC, oil could be selling for $10 a barrel in 2015.

Inflate or deflate the price, and you eventually still have a serious problem.

At $10 a barrel, there is no incentive to move to alternative technology. At $200 a barrel, blue collar consumers and business owners can not afford oil related costs on their balance sheet, and commerce slows to a crawl.

This is why I say price is somewhat irrelevant. What matters is the geology. Where is it?

No, this isn't the 60's but the industry has continually kept up with world demand. Sure oil is more challenging to find and produce but the technology has advanced far in the last 40 years. As to your questions re: recent finds I suppose the details are out there.

Not far enough, considering the North Sea, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia, the U.S., Iran, and now Saudi Arabia, have peaked, among many other fields.

You "suppose the details are out there?" This debate is about figures, and identifications. Hope-based guesstimates were put in proper perspective many weeks/months ago.

Where's the oil? It's where you find it.

All due respect, but this above is a punt if there ever was one.

I'm asking you, or anyone, to document the finds, and provide PROVEN reserve estimates for those finds. Then divide whatever total you believe you have by our 86 million barrel per day appetitie.

Companies make decisions regarding return on investment based on a discovery's potential. I'm not current on the science involved, but yes if a project is going to cost tens of millions of dollars than rest assured they have reason to plunk the money down.

Exploratory wells, and full-blown production infrastructure and refinement capacity are two very different things. For the latter, companies DO NOT make investment decisions until they have a discovery's PROVEN recoverable reserve totals.

And what's with the "2.4 hours of energy"? I never understood that analogy.

Per my example for a field with 100,000 barrels of recoverable oil, up against our 86 million barrel per day rate of consumption (and growing, rapidly).

But, you're right.... That amount wouldn't be 2.4 hours worth, more like 2.4 minutes worth.

As in "why develop ANWR- it's only 6 months worth of consumption". LOL

Because six months of energy does not sustain growth, does not spawn additional lending and credit, and is not worth the tens of billions of dollars to build the infrastructure.

 

[Big Fitz]

if that were true then oil prices should NEVER have skyrocketed as they did....

BUZZZZZZ!

Every price spike in oil has one thing in common. It was always caused by politics. It has never been caused by lack of supply or cost of production. When Sodamn Insane blew up the Kuwaiti oil wells (worlds largest environmental disaster AND cause of a price spike that never truly occurred, the price rise was mild. Even the hurricanes of 2005 did not cause a major spike in the cost to produce.

Only politicians and their tools of stupidity cause price spikes. OPEC embargos, wars, trade restrictions, sanctions, rationing, taxes, tariffs. These are the causes of price spikes.

What stops us from finding more oil? 90% of that is also politics with politicians either banning methods OR putting locations 'off limits' to exploration. Or they slap down punitive taxes and moratoriums on the production of oil so high, the companies justifiably move elsewhere to get somewhere else what a government is too stupid to allow the proper exploitation of their native resources and make money for themselves off it.

Peak Oil is a political fraud. Why is it being perpetrated? Because prosperity destroys the support for progressofascism, and that's who supports this lie.

And to King Chicken Little the Last, Shut up. Nobody with a brain buys your Oludavi trench bullshit.

Your argument discounts the possibility that price increases could be triggered by political events even tho the driving cause of the increase is still scarcity and increased demand. Inflation never sleeps but it isn't realized as a flat progression either. Spikes occur at politically triggered moments.

You make a good point. But, I don't recall any time when this has been the primary cause of a price hike in oil. But you're right, it could happened. Please do correct me if I'm missing one... at least through the 70's to present. I don't know about beforehand.

 

[Samson]

Building your economy exclusively on resource extraction is a recipe for disaster though

Yes, but you gotta start somewhere.

Once Qatar has built enough Camal Jerky processing facilities, you'll see economic diversification.

We'll see what we typically see.

Thos nhations' elite, using projected revenue sources provided by the international banking community to get those nations to go into so much debt, will find that the projected revenues will not be enough to repay the debts.

This game of how to bankrupt the natives to take over their resources has a long LONG history.

The first time I encountered it and understood it for what it really was, was when I studied the way the Brits screwed the French and bankrupted Egypt during the building of the Suez Canal.

The Brits got control of the canal, and the Egyptians ended up with all the debts for it.

That's how predatory capitalism has been controlling the world for well over a century, folks.

Coupled with occassional gunboat diplomacy, the odd coupe d' etat here and there, and of course the rare but highly effective precision political assassination, predatory economics is the way to dominate the world.

You make it sound like a bad thing.

What would you rather see?

Qatar trying to market Camal Jerky without oil revenues?

 

[loosecannon]

"price increases could be triggered by political events." for me this is a valid observation of causation, although acute. are you saying this is correlation?

Yes, exactly. An 8.0 earthquake isn't caused by whatever happened in the five preceding minutes, or even other 8.0 earthquakes in the previous weeks and months. Altho both of those things may help trigger it.

What actually causes the quake is a long period of slowly mounting pressure that must ultimately culminate in a plate shift. That these large quakes happen in somewhat rapid succession after decades of building to a head doesn't make the triggering effect the actual cause.

 

[Samson]

"price increases could be triggered by political events." for me this is a valid observation of causation, although acute. are you saying this is correlation?

Yes, exactly. An 8.0 earthquake isn't caused by whatever happened in the five preceding minutes, or even other 8.0 earthquakes in the previous weeks and months. Altho both of those things may help trigger it.

What actually causes the quake is a long period of slowly mounting pressure that must ultimately culminate in a plate shift. That these large quakes happen in somewhat rapid succession after decades of building to a head doesn't make the triggering effect the actual cause.

yes, oil prices are just like earthquakes.

 

[loosecannon]

BUZZZZZZ!

Every price spike in oil has one thing in common. It was always caused by politics. It has never been caused by lack of supply or cost of production. When Sodamn Insane blew up the Kuwaiti oil wells (worlds largest environmental disaster AND cause of a price spike that never truly occurred, the price rise was mild. Even the hurricanes of 2005 did not cause a major spike in the cost to produce.

Only politicians and their tools of stupidity cause price spikes. OPEC embargos, wars, trade restrictions, sanctions, rationing, taxes, tariffs. These are the causes of price spikes.

What stops us from finding more oil? 90% of that is also politics with politicians either banning methods OR putting locations 'off limits' to exploration. Or they slap down punitive taxes and moratoriums on the production of oil so high, the companies justifiably move elsewhere to get somewhere else what a government is too stupid to allow the proper exploitation of their native resources and make money for themselves off it.

Peak Oil is a political fraud. Why is it being perpetrated? Because prosperity destroys the support for progressofascism, and that's who supports this lie.

And to King Chicken Little the Last, Shut up. Nobody with a brain buys your Oludavi trench bullshit.

Your argument discounts the possibility that price increases could be triggered by political events even tho the driving cause of the increase is still scarcity and increased demand. Inflation never sleeps but it isn't realized as a flat progression either. Spikes occur at politically triggered moments.

You make a good point. But, I don't recall any time when this has been the primary cause of a price hike in oil. But you're right, it could happened. Please do correct me if I'm missing one... at least through the 70's to present. I don't know about beforehand.

Well I am saying that it happened to some degree in all of those cases. If for no other reason than that inflation never sleeps while crude oil prices are locked in in advance at fixed rates.

And specifically regarding the last major oil spike, speculation ( a political event) drove oil to $143/bbl. But when the dollar strengthened, demand fell and speculation ceased driving prices up oil only retreated to $63-$83/bbl, considerably higher than it's previous plateau.

Oil prices tend to stagnate at plateaus even while pressures of aggregate demand and inflation mount. Then during specific windows of opportunity long term corrections in the price occur.

 

[loosecannon]

"price increases could be triggered by political events." for me this is a valid observation of causation, although acute. are you saying this is correlation?

Yes, exactly. An 8.0 earthquake isn't caused by whatever happened in the five preceding minutes, or even other 8.0 earthquakes in the previous weeks and months. Altho both of those things may help trigger it.

What actually causes the quake is a long period of slowly mounting pressure that must ultimately culminate in a plate shift. That these large quakes happen in somewhat rapid succession after decades of building to a head doesn't make the triggering effect the actual cause.

yes, oil prices are just like earthquakes.

You obviously can't handle metaphor.

Go play in the sand box.

 

[Samson]

Yes, exactly. An 8.0 earthquake isn't caused by whatever happened in the five preceding minutes, or even other 8.0 earthquakes in the previous weeks and months. Altho both of those things may help trigger it.

What actually causes the quake is a long period of slowly mounting pressure that must ultimately culminate in a plate shift. That these large quakes happen in somewhat rapid succession after decades of building to a head doesn't make the triggering effect the actual cause.

yes, oil prices are just like earthquakes.

You obviously can't handle metaphor.

Go play in the sand box.

Are oil prices like sand too?



Retard.

 

[Big Fitz]

Well I am saying that it happened to some degree in all of those cases. If for no other reason than that inflation never sleeps while crude oil prices are locked in in advance at fixed rates.

I see what you're sayin but have to say you're making a distinction with no meaning here. It is still a politically caused event. Not natural. People reacting to politics in the market is still politics in action.

 

[Samson]

Well I am saying that it happened to some degree in all of those cases. If for no other reason than that inflation never sleeps while crude oil prices are locked in in advance at fixed rates.

I see what you're sayin but have to say you're making a distinction with no meaning here. It is still a politically caused event. Not natural. People reacting to politics in the market is still politics in action.

I understand there are some that are causing hurricanes, earthquakes, and ....




sand.

 

[loosecannon]

yes, oil prices are just like earthquakes.

You obviously can't handle metaphor.

Go play in the sand box.

Are oil prices like sand too?



Retard.

since you can't seem to be capable of following mature ideas why don't you tell me?

 

[loosecannon]

Well I am saying that it happened to some degree in all of those cases. If for no other reason than that inflation never sleeps while crude oil prices are locked in in advance at fixed rates.

I see what you're sayin but have to say you're making a distinction with no meaning here. It is still a politically caused event. Not natural. People reacting to politics in the market is still politics in action.

To you anyway. To me inflation and aggregate demand are causation while triggers are only triggers.

The trigger doesn't propel the bullet, neither does the finger pulling the trigger, the gun powder explosion does.

 

[Samson]

You obviously can't handle metaphor.

Go play in the sand box.

Are oil prices like sand too?



Retard.

since you can't seem to be capable of following mature ideas why don't you tell me?

Its your idiotic ideas that no one is capable of following.

 

[asterism]

Well I am saying that it happened to some degree in all of those cases. If for no other reason than that inflation never sleeps while crude oil prices are locked in in advance at fixed rates.

I see what you're sayin but have to say you're making a distinction with no meaning here. It is still a politically caused event. Not natural. People reacting to politics in the market is still politics in action.

To you anyway. To me inflation and aggregate demand are causation while triggers are only triggers.

The trigger doesn't propel the bullet, neither does the finger pulling the trigger, the gun powder explosion does.

Did you just state that the actual trigger isn't a trigger?

 

[Samson]

I see what you're sayin but have to say you're making a distinction with no meaning here. It is still a politically caused event. Not natural. People reacting to politics in the market is still politics in action.

To you anyway. To me inflation and aggregate demand are causation while triggers are only triggers.

The trigger doesn't propel the bullet, neither does the finger pulling the trigger, the gun powder explosion does.

Did you just state that the actual trigger isn't a trigger?

No, No, No.

The earthquake is a trigger that makes the gunpowder explode the sand which raises oil prices.

 

[loosecannon]

I see what you're sayin but have to say you're making a distinction with no meaning here. It is still a politically caused event. Not natural. People reacting to politics in the market is still politics in action.

To you anyway. To me inflation and aggregate demand are causation while triggers are only triggers.

The trigger doesn't propel the bullet, neither does the finger pulling the trigger, the gun powder explosion does.

Did you just state that the actual trigger isn't a trigger?

No, quite the opposite. I just stated that the trigger is precisely the trigger. But not the actual cause of oil price rises.

 

[loosecannon]

To you anyway. To me inflation and aggregate demand are causation while triggers are only triggers.

The trigger doesn't propel the bullet, neither does the finger pulling the trigger, the gun powder explosion does.

Did you just state that the actual trigger isn't a trigger?

No, No, No.

The earthquake is a trigger that makes the gunpowder explode the sand which raises oil prices.

are you an idiotic fuckhead in real life too, Mr toostupidtodometaphor?