Oiling Economies

[Mr. H.]

JC, oil could be selling for $10 a barrel in 2015.

 

[topspin]

$110 would be fair.

 

[Samson]

We had oil as low as $10 a barrel for a bit under the clinton administration.

How can it go from THAT to nearly $100 bucks a barrel a few years ago?

someone is playing games with us, that seems certain.

You realise the Clinton Adminisitration ended in 2000.

Almost 11 years ago........we're getting old, Care. Everything costs more these days!!

Please show me, anything at all that had gone up 900% in price in less than 10 years.. think it was 10 years or there abouts.

something is fishy....unless of course, we really are using up and running out of easily accessible oil...but even if true, the hikes in prices a couple of years ago, seems like manipulation to me.

Go to

Crude oil price chart, 2000-2010

It has a feature to select many commodities, from Aluminum to Wheat, and view a 2000-2010 Price Chart.

There is no commodity selling for 900% more now, than in 2000.

There's also no commodity selling at or less than it did in 2000.

 

[antagon]

Building your economy exclusively on resource extraction is a recipe for disaster though

Yes, but you gotta start somewhere.

Once Qatar has built enough Camal Jerky processing facilities, you'll see economic diversification.

doubtful. the sheiks will just get bigger yachts and more wives. these cats dont know what they are doing with stewarding an economy. obviously they don't care.

 

[Trajan]

The 12 Fastest Growing Economies in 2010**

Country Growth Rate
1. Qatar 16.4%
2. Botswana 14.4%
3. Azerbaijan 12.3%
4. Republic of Congo 11.9%
5. Angola 9.3%
6. East Timor 7.87%
7. Liberia 7.53%
8. China 7.51%
9. Afghanistan 7.01%
10. Uzbekistan 7.00%
11. Turkmenistan 6.96%
12. Iraq 6.69%

Source: GDP Growth Forecast 2010, EconomyWatch.com Economic Statistics Database

And what is the #1 reason....?

The insatiable demand for energy. That has been the big story for much of this decade. A higher standard of living, cheaper international travel, and the proliferation of electronic gadgets in the western world leads to ever higher per-person energy consumption in advanced economies. As massive countries like China, India and Indonesia grow, their citizens become richer and aspire to the same lifestyle, leading to ever greater energy needs. Countries like Qatar, with the world's largest natural gas reserves, and Azerbaijan with its vast oil fields, have boomed as a result.

**credit USMB member Meister for finding the article**

I am shocked Brazil is not on that upper 12 list....hummm.

 

[Samson]

Building your economy exclusively on resource extraction is a recipe for disaster though

Yes, but you gotta start somewhere.

Once Qatar has built enough Camal Jerky processing facilities, you'll see economic diversification.

doubtful. the sheiks will just get bigger yachts and more wives. these cats dont know what they are doing with stewarding an economy. obviously they don't care.

Are you doubting that Camal Jerky will become the next foodie craze?

 

[Samson]

The 12 Fastest Growing Economies in 2010**

Country Growth Rate
1. Qatar 16.4%
2. Botswana 14.4%
3. Azerbaijan 12.3%
4. Republic of Congo 11.9%
5. Angola 9.3%
6. East Timor 7.87%
7. Liberia 7.53%
8. China 7.51%
9. Afghanistan 7.01%
10. Uzbekistan 7.00%
11. Turkmenistan 6.96%
12. Iraq 6.69%

Source: GDP Growth Forecast 2010, EconomyWatch.com Economic Statistics Database

And what is the #1 reason....?

The insatiable demand for energy. That has been the big story for much of this decade. A higher standard of living, cheaper international travel, and the proliferation of electronic gadgets in the western world leads to ever higher per-person energy consumption in advanced economies. As massive countries like China, India and Indonesia grow, their citizens become richer and aspire to the same lifestyle, leading to ever greater energy needs. Countries like Qatar, with the world's largest natural gas reserves, and Azerbaijan with its vast oil fields, have boomed as a result.

**credit USMB member Meister for finding the article**

I am shocked Brazil is not on that upper 12 list....hummm.

Brazil 5.496 %

 

[Trajan]

We had oil as low as $10 a barrel for a bit under the clinton administration.

How can it go from THAT to nearly $100 bucks a barrel a few years ago?

someone is playing games with us, that seems certain.

You realise the Clinton Adminisitration ended in 2000.

Almost 11 years ago........we're getting old, Care. Everything costs more these days!!

Please show me, anything at all that had gone up 900% in price in less than 10 years.. think it was 10 years or there abouts.

something is fishy....unless of course, we really are using up and running out of easily accessible oil...but even if true, the hikes in prices a couple of years ago, seems like manipulation to me.

Care....global fungibles are very susceptible to global angst lets call it. Especially when the good is a must have and that which a huge portion comes from a very volatile area.

In 1999 and 2000 when oil was that low, opec had seen the end of a not so weighty foreign policy of that admin..In short there was little rocking of the boat. The Asian Financial flu was gearing up.
Iran was really ramping up their then unknown nuke facilities and needed very dime they could lay their hands on. SA and Iran, who between them control over 40% of the oil that makes up the dossier of the OPEC nations, huddled together and prices began their climb....Putin came on to the scene, Saddam was telling Kuwait he wouldn't pay them the debt. he had run up and he had a special treat in store for them if they didn't forgive the debt...etc etc.. the chart gives you a pretty good overview.

 

[editec]

Building your economy exclusively on resource extraction is a recipe for disaster though

Yes, but you gotta start somewhere.

Once Qatar has built enough Camal Jerky processing facilities, you'll see economic diversification.

We'll see what we typically see.

Thos nhations' elite, using projected revenue sources provided by the international banking community to get those nations to go into so much debt, will find that the projected revenues will not be enough to repay the debts.

This game of how to bankrupt the natives to take over their resources has a long LONG history.

The first time I encountered it and understood it for what it really was, was when I studied the way the Brits screwed the French and bankrupted Egypt during the building of the Suez Canal.

The Brits got control of the canal, and the Egyptians ended up with all the debts for it.

That's how predatory capitalism has been controlling the world for well over a century, folks.

Coupled with occassional gunboat diplomacy, the odd coupe d' etat here and there, and of course the rare but highly effective precision political assassination, predatory economics is the way to dominate the world.

 

[loosecannon]

JC - subscribe to RIGZONE - Your Gateway to the Oil & Gas Industry. I signed up a year ago this month and have nearly 300 emailed newsletters, almost every one of them announces a new discovery somewhere in the world.

Its no use.

RIGZONE has been annoucing hundreds of new discoveries every year since 1973, and the wild-eyed "peak oil" fanatics won't let go of their mantra that ANY DAY NOW their predictions will materialize.

There has to be a finite limit to how deep we can drill safely. I for one think that the enviro damage of the BP spill has been hugely exaggerated. But even if costs for the clean up were capped today BP would probably concede that the risks of that kind of drilling/extraction are prohibitive without some kind of global risk sharing.

The question isn't how much oil is left in the ground the question is how much is recoverable and at what price. The longer you rely on oil the higher that price will be and much of that price won't be paid in dollars but in escalating environmental destruction.

CA has suddenly realized that it is well within our capacity to provide 70% of our electricity via solar power stations located in the barren Mojave. And we are quickly making it so. The business models make sense at today's prices.

The same is true for much of the world. The challenges involved in converting to renewables and reducing consumption begin as formidable but improve as you do it.

Whereas the challenges of relying on mined petro chemicals and robust consumption begin easy and will become increasingly challenging as you do that.

 

[topspin]

I'd love to see a link on 70% of cali's energy ever getting supplied by solar.
Also BP nor anyone esle is going to think deep drilling is prohibitive. ie rage over moritaorium

 

[Big Fitz]

if that were true then oil prices should NEVER have skyrocketed as they did....

BUZZZZZZ!

Every price spike in oil has one thing in common. It was always caused by politics. It has never been caused by lack of supply or cost of production. When Sodamn Insane blew up the Kuwaiti oil wells (worlds largest environmental disaster AND cause of a price spike that never truly occurred, the price rise was mild. Even the hurricanes of 2005 did not cause a major spike in the cost to produce.

Only politicians and their tools of stupidity cause price spikes. OPEC embargos, wars, trade restrictions, sanctions, rationing, taxes, tariffs. These are the causes of price spikes.

What stops us from finding more oil? 90% of that is also politics with politicians either banning methods OR putting locations 'off limits' to exploration. Or they slap down punitive taxes and moratoriums on the production of oil so high, the companies justifiably move elsewhere to get somewhere else what a government is too stupid to allow the proper exploitation of their native resources and make money for themselves off it.

Peak Oil is a political fraud. Why is it being perpetrated? Because prosperity destroys the support for progressofascism, and that's who supports this lie.

And to King Chicken Little the Last, Shut up. Nobody with a brain buys your Oludavi trench bullshit.

 

[topspin]

Prices go up because someone has the money and is willing to pay for it. LOL

 

[Big Fitz]

Prices go up because someone has the money and is willing to pay for it. LOL

That is called elementary push inflation. There's too much money out chasing too few goods, so the prices rise. It has nothing to do with the product, it's an economic issue. The value of the oil is not chasing, the currency is devaluing.

Case in point, Oil's price, compared to gold is the same as it was, give or take a little fluctuation, as it was in the 1930's. The dollar devalued catastrophically since the 1970's.

 

[topspin]

duh, slow down the printing press

 

[loosecannon]

I'd love to see a link on 70% of cali's energy ever getting supplied by solar.
Also BP nor anyone esle is going to think deep drilling is prohibitive. ie rage over moritaorium

I wouldn't count on that for two reasons: first even before the BP spill Exxon already considered drilling that deep prohibitively risky and stopped.

Second the offshore moratorium applied to wells already in progress and to firms other than BP

As per Cali we could produce 300% as much electricity as we consume via solar. But 70% is the top of the practical potential because we can't make that power any cheaper than neighboring states and the sun doesn't shine at night.

 

[loosecannon]

Prices go up because someone has the money and is willing to pay for it. LOL

That is called elementary push inflation. There's too much money out chasing too few goods, so the prices rise. It has nothing to do with the product, it's an economic issue. The value of the oil is not chasing, the currency is devaluing.

Case in point, Oil's price, compared to gold is the same as it was, give or take a little fluctuation, as it was in the 1930's. The dollar devalued catastrophically since the 1970's.

Absolutely correct. MOST of, but not all of, the increase in the price of crude since 1999 is inflation driven. But demand also increased and according to elasticity of demand a small demand increase for a scarce resource can cause irrational price increases.

Price elasticity of demand - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[loosecannon]

if that were true then oil prices should NEVER have skyrocketed as they did....

BUZZZZZZ!

Every price spike in oil has one thing in common. It was always caused by politics. It has never been caused by lack of supply or cost of production. When Sodamn Insane blew up the Kuwaiti oil wells (worlds largest environmental disaster AND cause of a price spike that never truly occurred, the price rise was mild. Even the hurricanes of 2005 did not cause a major spike in the cost to produce.

Only politicians and their tools of stupidity cause price spikes. OPEC embargos, wars, trade restrictions, sanctions, rationing, taxes, tariffs. These are the causes of price spikes.

What stops us from finding more oil? 90% of that is also politics with politicians either banning methods OR putting locations 'off limits' to exploration. Or they slap down punitive taxes and moratoriums on the production of oil so high, the companies justifiably move elsewhere to get somewhere else what a government is too stupid to allow the proper exploitation of their native resources and make money for themselves off it.

Peak Oil is a political fraud. Why is it being perpetrated? Because prosperity destroys the support for progressofascism, and that's who supports this lie.

And to King Chicken Little the Last, Shut up. Nobody with a brain buys your Oludavi trench bullshit.

Your argument discounts the possibility that price increases could be triggered by political events even tho the driving cause of the increase is still scarcity and increased demand. Inflation never sleeps but it isn't realized as a flat progression either. Spikes occur at politically triggered moments.

 

[antagon]

I am shocked Brazil is not on that upper 12 list....hummm.

if it seems you give a shit about your citizens, it is hard to crest 6%. my guess is brazil gives at least one shit. if this were a growth-by-volume rather than per-cent list, brazil, india, maybe the US would be on it.

 

[antagon]

Your argument discounts the possibility that price increases could be triggered by political events even tho the driving cause of the increase is still scarcity and increased demand. Inflation never sleeps but it isn't realized as a flat progression either. Spikes occur at politically triggered moments.

does this mean you're on board with my theory about narrative being a surrogate to hard market inputs? works for oil; works for dollars?