Oil prices are dropping...

[Ag107.87]

Their numbers are simply old and wrong. I never rely government numbers for much of anything. Demand will DROP upwards closer to 5% domestically THIS YEAR and and another 2-3% next year. Globally demand will also DROP by AT LEAST 2 maybe 3% this year and remain FLAT or drop again next year. If India and China have to further reduce their subsidies (and they will HAVE TO....multiple times) then demand may plummet as Chinese and Indian consumers are much more price sensative than we are and we are dropping our demand by 4-5%...expect theirs to fall by DOUBLE DIGITS when that happens.

Find new numbers, EIA prediction numbers are USELESS.

I know. I never use EIA prediction numbers either. They are heavily revised, usually multiple times. If you'd read carefully, you'd notice that I didn't use EIA numbers for prediction. I used the more referenced, and better IEA numbers for prediction by their latest press release which states that demand is close to 87 mpd this year, far from your unsubstantiated number of 84 mpd.

I did, however, use EIA numbers. They were numbers which have consistently shown past imports and where those imports came from. Those stated that we get 45% from OPEC, which refutes your claim of less than 15%. And that we get ≈40% from Mexico, Canada and Venezuela (which is also in OPEC) which also refutes your claim that we get "almost all" of our imports from those three nations.

If you'd like to refute any of these numbers, then please provide your own numbers and sources like I've asked before, yet you seem so unwilling to do.

 

[Zoomie1980]

Just because they are flying off of the shelves means nothing. Bike sales are up 33% in a year. Same with scooters. But that doesn't mean that you can expect them to be a significant factor for a long time. Even as they are flying off of the shelves, check out how many are on the road. I bike everyday, so I see at least 300 cars a day. How many hybrids? Maybe 1-3 a day. That's it. Less than or about 1% of the entire market.

What's the production expected to be for the Volt? 60,000 units a year. Not a day, a year. Even if there are 9 other models out there at 60,000 units a year, that's only a little more than half a million cars a year. It will take 200 years to replace 100 million cars (or about half the US fleet) at that rate. Even with increasing in production, it will still take many decades to transfer over because for many people, 40 miles on a charge is simply not enough. Oh, did you forget we're going through a soon to be very deep recession, where most people can't drop $40 grand on a car when they are selling their SUV for 5 grand just to save a few hundred at the pump each month?

For most people, it's not just not possible (due to insufficient supply), it's also a fiscal issue.

Whoopie a whole 2 GW! That's out of 1 TW though. So only about 0.2% of total demand. And you want to put even more dependency on that system?

By 2015 over 25% of Iowa, Nebraska and the Dakota's electric power will come from WIND. The rest will continue to be nuclear and coal, which we have at least 100 year supply of.

Car's, by 2015 there I doubt there will be many traditional gasoline powered vehicles remaining in production. That';s what the market wants, hybrids, electrics, fuel cells, etc and that is what will eventually be delivered, whether you believe it or not. The Volt is merely the first mainstream electric car, there will be many, many more.

And we still have well over a 40 year supply of oil left to tide us over until we transform the basis of our energy consumption. And we will transform or we our way of life will die and the American people are simply not that stupid, even if you believe they are.

So a suggestion to you is go out in your garage, close the doors, start your car and leave the world since you are obviously convinced that is your fate anyway. What would dooms day loons like you and Paulitics do if we ever did have a REAL recession? This little thing we are dealing with right now hasn't even technically made it to official recession? Go shoot yourself and do us all a favor...

 

[Ravi]

By 2015 over 25% of Iowa, Nebraska and the Dakota's electric power will come from WIND. The rest will continue to be nuclear and coal, which we have at least 100 year supply of.

Car's, by 2015 there I doubt there will be many traditional gasoline powered vehicles remaining in production. That';s what the market wants, hybrids, electrics, fuel cells, etc and that is what will eventually be delivered, whether you believe it or not. The Volt is merely the first mainstream electric car, there will be many, many more.

And we still have well over a 40 year supply of oil left to tide us over until we transform the basis of our energy consumption. And we will transform or we our way of life will die and the American people are simply not that stupid, even if you believe they are.

So a suggestion to you is go out in your garage, close the doors, start your car and leave the world since you are obviously convinced that is your fate anyway....

You are absolutely right about the hybrids...I've had one for five years and would like to give it to my son for his first 'beater,' though it's anything but...but the backorders on hybrids are forever...which is why Ag107 isn't seeing them on the road.

 

[Zoomie1980]

I know. I never use EIA prediction numbers either. They are heavily revised, usually multiple times. If you'd read carefully, you'd notice that I didn't use EIA numbers for prediction. I used the more referenced, and better IEA numbers for prediction by their latest press release which states that demand is close to 87 mpd this year, far from your unsubstantiated number of 84 mpd.

I did, however, use EIA numbers. They were numbers which have consistently shown past imports and where those imports came from. Those stated that we get 45% from OPEC, which refutes your claim of less than 15%. And that we get ≈40% from Mexico, Canada and Venezuela (which is also in OPEC) which also refutes your claim that we get "almost all" of our imports from those three nations.

If you'd like to refute any of these numbers, then please provide your own numbers and sources like I've asked before, yet you seem so unwilling to do.

I read the IEA numbers too and they are wrong as well. Most of my info comes from global strategic economic estimates from most MILITARY sources. And are second hand summaries since the specifics are classified and not open to the public. And generally, when you subtract out what countries are putting into strategic reserves, we will end 2008 with about a 2 million barrel a day SURPLUS of production. India and China WILL decrease their subsidies again in 2009 and maybe multiple times and their consumers are at the tipping point right now on being able to afford gasoline. IEA does not even consider that. I do.

 

[Ag107.87]

By 2015 over 25% of Iowa, Nebraska and the Dakota's electric power will come from WIND. The rest will continue to be nuclear and coal, which we have at least 100 year supply of.

Fallacy of composition. How much of the US electrical demand does Iowa, Nebraska and N./S. Dakota represent? What? 5%? So that's about 1-2% of US electrical demand that will be coming from wind. We're talking about all of the US, not just the little corner of your world.

Car's, by 2015 there I doubt there will be many traditional gasoline powered vehicles remaining in production. That';s what the market wants, hybrids, electrics, fuel cells, etc and that is what will eventually be delivered, whether you believe it or not. The Volt is merely the first mainstream electric car, there will be many, many more.

Where's the demand at $40 grand for a 40 mile range car? Not much. Where's the demand for a $30 grand hybrid that is barely economical in the long run at $4 gas? That's why these cars are a tiny fraction of the overall market and it's why they will continue to be. Again, we're looking at about a 1-2 million car/year market for these over the next decade. That will amount to about 10% of the total car market. That's significant, but it's not what you predict.

So a suggestion to you is go out in your garage, close the doors, start your car and leave the world since you are obviously convinced that is your fate anyway....

Umm...I already said that I ride my bike everyday. I don't drive. I've driven a car 800 miles in the past three years. I'm far from being dependent on an ICE. I'm far more into getting beyond oil in deeds than most people (no matter what they may say about the subject).

I'm not surprised that you missed that part. After all, you think that OPEC is only a tiny fraction of US oil imports and that Venezuela isn't in OPEC.

 

[Zoomie1980]

You are right, and it will take about 10 years for us to make the transformation.

It will really take longer than that but it will be fully underway by then for sure. The bigger challenges are how to get trains and trucks off distillates....

 

[Ag107.87]

I read the IEA numbers too and they are wrong as well. Most of my info comes from global strategic economic estimates from most MILITARY sources. And are second hand summaries since the specifics are classified and not open to the public.

So is that how you're going to continue to trot out BS numbers about OPEC, Mexico, Canada, Venezuela, world oil production, etc.? You'll just throw them out there and then when someone asks for a source, it's confidential and not open to the public?

Isn't that a brilliant method. That way nobody can ever disprove you or dispute whatever BS you throw out there. Although it doesn't do much for your credibility, especially when you come out with these gems.

So are there any third-party sources which you think provide good estimates of what current consumption is right now? Or where the US gets its oil? Or who is even in OPEC? Or is that all confidential?

 

[Zoomie1980]

Fallacy of composition. How much of the US electrical demand does Iowa, Nebraska and N./S. Dakota represent? What? 5%? So that's about 1-2% of US electrical demand that will be coming from wind. We're talking about all of the US, not just the little corner of your world.



Where's the demand at $40 grand for a 40 mile range car? Not much. Where's the demand for a $30 grand hybrid that is barely economical in the long run at $4 gas? That's why these cars are a tiny fraction of the overall market and it's why they will continue to be. Again, we're looking at about a 1-2 million car/year market for these over the next decade. That will amount to about 10% of the total car market. That's significant, but it's not what you predict.



Umm...I already said that I ride my bike everyday. I don't drive. I've driven a car 800 miles in the past three years. I'm far from being dependent on an ICE. I'm far more into getting beyond oil in deeds than most people (no matter what they may say about the subject).

I'm not surprised that you missed that part. After all, you think that OPEC is only a tiny fraction of US oil imports and that Venezuela isn't in OPEC.

Economies of scale. The early electrics will be pricey but like all things and they enter mass production and millions are made every year they will become affordable to more and more people.

Solar power will dominate the west. Massive wind projects are already underway all over the US, just not in the upper plains. Some dwarf Iowa and Nebraska's plans. And we will see several new nuclear initiatives coming on board in the next five years. Coal plants will begin replacing oil-fire plants as well.

Transitions are alway rough and this one will be no exception, but it will occur. It will happen, and America is going to be just fine.

 

[Zoomie1980]

So is that how you're going to continue to trot out BS numbers about OPEC, Mexico, Canada, Venezuela, world oil production, etc.? You'll just throw them out there and then when someone asks for a source, it's confidential and not open to the public?

Isn't that a brilliant method. That way nobody can ever disprove you or dispute whatever BS you throw out there. Although it doesn't do much for your credibility, especially when you come out with these gems.

So are there any third-party sources which you think provide good estimates of what current consumption is right now? Or where the US gets its oil? Or who is even in OPEC? Or is that all confidential?

Current cunsumption not going to long term reserve storage is 84.75 million barrels a day not anywhere NEAR 87 million. Current supply is 86.55 million barrels a day. Global reserve stocks are at an all time high. There is a reason oil has lost 10% in a matter of days. The Reality is setting in, the supply-demand issue is not even close to dire and will not be for a LONG time yet.

 

[Ag107.87]

Current cunsumption not going to long term reserve storage is 84.75 million barrels a day not anywhere NEAR 87 million. Current supply is 86.55 million barrels a day. Global reserve stocks are at an all time high.

Care to actually cite your sources? Or is this just BS like your other jokes that you stated for facts like OPEC and our importers? Why would you think I, or anyone, would think you had ANY credibility when you 1) don't cite sources and 2) have already shown a complete ineptitude with respect to oil?

You simply saying a number or two does nothing to convince me that those numbers are anywhere near being correct. You're going to have to at least put a little effort into proving it. Would you care to?

If you can't provide the source for your oil production and consumption numbers, would you care to provide a source for US oil import sources? Or how about who is in OPEC? Can you at least do that?

I'm really interested in knowing why you can't provide a single source for anything you say.

 

[Zoomie1980]

Do you have links to any credible sources to back up your pronouncements?

Use oil industry numbers that they, themselves use for their own strategic planning. Do not use "independent" or government based numbers as they either have political bias's or do not have access to accurate or real time data. If you have a clearance, use US or UK military sources and do your own analysis.

 

[Zoomie1980]

So is that how you're going to continue to trot out BS numbers about OPEC, Mexico, Canada, Venezuela, world oil production, etc.? You'll just throw them out there and then when someone asks for a source, it's confidential and not open to the public?

Isn't that a brilliant method. That way nobody can ever disprove you or dispute whatever BS you throw out there. Although it doesn't do much for your credibility, especially when you come out with these gems.

So are there any third-party sources which you think provide good estimates of what current consumption is right now? Or where the US gets its oil? Or who is even in OPEC? Or is that all confidential?

Current cunsumption is 84.75 million barrels a day not anywhere NEAR 87 million. Current supply is 86.55 million barrels a day.

Not any numbers here, but this is the type of industry based information I trust long before government or other "independent" bodies. And yes, I trust oil company information more than any other because they are in the business, just like I get all my Cotton info from Cotton, Inc, the industry's economic outlet.

http://www.enn.com/energy/article/29461

And this from OPEC. And they are basing this on already old info which shows demand caving much more than this report....

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/07/16/opec-again-lowers-2008-global-oil-demand-forecast/

 

[Ag107.87]

Current cunsumption is 84.75 million barrels a day not anywhere NEAR 87 million. Current supply is 86.55 million barrels a day.

Not any numbers here, but this is the type of industry based information I trust long before government or other "independent" bodies. And yes, I trust oil company information more than any other because they are in the business, just like I get all my Cotton info from Cotton, Inc, the industry's economic outlet.

HAHA. You are an absolute joke, man. You can't provide a single source. You come out and say that OPEC provides less than 15% of US oil imports, yet they provide 45%! You say three nations provide almost all of our oil imports, yet it's less than 40% and you forget that Venezuela is part of OPEC. And you can't back anything up, while I can.

Hold on to your techno-fixes. That's all you seem to have. You have neither brains nor facts, just dreams of what others are going to do. Have fun with that. Thanks for providing me with some laughs at your stupidity.


Re: OPEC. I love that. Your own sources show that you are wrong, yet you use those to say that you're right. LOL Brilliant. You are simply amazing.

 

[Zoomie1980]

HAHA. You are an absolute joke, man. You can't provide a single source. You come out and say that OPEC provides less than 15% of US oil imports, yet they provide 45%! You say three nations provide almost all of our oil imports, yet it's less than 40% and you forget that Venezuela is part of OPEC. And you can't back anything up, while I can.

Hold on to your techno-fixes. That's all you seem to have. You have neither brains nor facts, just dreams of what others are going to do. Have fun with that. Thanks for providing me with some laughs at your stupidity.


Re: OPEC. I love that. Your own sources show that you are wrong, yet you use those to say that you're right. LOL Brilliant. You are simply amazing.

You can always go shoot yourself. You doomsday loons are all alike.

1) We are not in a recession and are already pretty much through this INSIGNIFICANT down turn, not some "deep recession"

2) The REAL oil situation is nowhere near dire. In fact oil is among the most plentiful natural resources we use. There has NEVER been a missed shipment due to lack of supply and there will NOT BE any time soon, if ever.

3) The American people will do what they have to to pull through the coming energy transformation. I intend to make a lot of money off of it.

4) You are a complete doomsday moron. We have quite a few of those idiots on this forum so you are in common company.

As for linking sources I never link anything from anywhere. Never have, never will. But my sources are solid and reliable and my opinions are set. You are a newbie and one thing you will learn is that every source ever posted here will be debunked by hordes of posters as being "biased", "political", "slanted", "inaccurate" etc..... So get used to it. I simply don't bother.

As for you, what makes you categorically WRONG and all your ilk categorically WRONG, is you have no faith in the American people...which makes you an idiot by definition.

 

[Ag107.87]

You can always go shoot yourself. You doomsday loons are all alike.

1) We are not in a recession and are already pretty much through this INSIGNIFICANT down turn, not some "deep recession"

2) The REAL oil situation is nowhere near dire. In fact oil is among the most plentiful natural resources we use. There has NEVER been a missed shipment due to lack of supply and there will NOT BE any time soon, if ever. (Of course not. It's called the free market. When supply and demand becomes out of whack to the point where it would cause a shortage, then prices go up, pushing consumers out. Thus, avoiding a shortage. Keep the free market working and there's never going to be a shortage.)

3) The American people will do what they have to to pull through the coming energy transformation. I intend to make a lot of money off of it.

(You have no proof. Nothing that you say is based on any real evidence, or else you'd prove it with some facts. Instead, all you have is faith, which is the opposite of reason)

4) You are a complete doomsday moron. We have quite a few of those idiots on this forum so you are in common company.

(Actually, I'm not. I'm pessimistic about the oil situation, but I don't think that has to transfer over to other sectors. I'm a "doomsday" guy about what other people will choose, but then again, I can detach myself from any suffering that people choose such as in the subprime crisis, the money they spend at the pump, etc. They made the choices, they reap the consequences, therefore, I avoid a lot of the depression typical of doomers. I tend to care about me and those around me so I'm pretty damn optimistic.)

How come you are too dumb to know that OPEC includes Venezuela? Tell me that. Why do you stick by such ridiculous statements that you've made with respect to oil that are so easily disproven? It's just hysterical how idiotic you are.

 

[Ag107.87]

As for linking sources I never link anything from anywhere. Never have, never will. But my sources are solid and reliable and my opinions are set. You are a newbie and one thing you will learn is that every source ever posted here will be debunked by hordes of posters as being "biased", "political", "slanted", "inaccurate" etc..... So get used to it. I simply don't bother.

Not me. If you took the time to post your sources, I'd take them seriously. I'd critique them to hell to make sure they stand up to the toughest scrutiny. And I don't mean I'd critique the source, I'd critique the actual article or numbers.

But you'd rather be lazy, incompetent and distrustful, so have fun with that.

As for you, what makes you categorically WRONG and all your ilk categorically WRONG, is you have no faith in the American people...which makes you an idiot by definition.

Completely unproven assertion. I choose to have as little faith as possible. I choose to rely on evidence, not on beliefs or wishes. Faith will get you into trouble. It will make you feel as though you are in a better position than you truly are. We had faith that everything would work out, that oil would stay below $10 a barrel and that we didn't need an energy policy in this country. How did that faith work out? Anybody looking at the actual numbers a decade ago could have seen that we were in trouble with respect to our energy situation.

 

[Ag107.87]

As for linking sources I never link anything from anywhere. Never have, never will. But my sources are solid and reliable and my opinions are set. You are a newbie and one thing you will learn is that every source ever posted here will be debunked by hordes of posters as being "biased", "political", "slanted", "inaccurate" etc..... So get used to it. I simply don't bother.

Not me. If you took the time to post your sources, I'd take them seriously. I'd critique them to hell to make sure they stand up to the toughest scrutiny. And I don't mean I'd critique the source, I'd critique the actual article or numbers.

But you'd rather be lazy, incompetent and distrustful, so have fun with that.

As for you, what makes you categorically WRONG and all your ilk categorically WRONG, is you have no faith in the American people...which makes you an idiot by definition.

Completely unproven assertion. I choose to have as little faith as possible. I choose to rely on evidence, not on beliefs or wishes. Faith will get you into trouble. It will make you feel as though you are in a better position than you truly are. We had faith that everything would work out, that oil would stay below $10 a barrel and that we didn't need an energy policy in this country. How did that faith work out? Anybody looking at the actual numbers a decade ago could have seen that we were in trouble with respect to our energy situation.

 

[Ag107.87]

Since you seem to be completely arrogant and stubborn with respect to oil and sources (despite your constant gross errors in the oil field), I find no reason to continue this discussion further, unless you can summon enough integrity to post your sources.

 

[Zoomie1980]

How come you are too dumb to know that OPEC includes Venezuela? Tell me that. Why do you stick by such ridiculous statements that you've made with respect to oil that are so easily disproven? It's just hysterical how idiotic you are.

I am and honors grad of the US Air Force Academy, retired officer, two masters degrees, and am now a senior IT manager at a fortune 500 company. I'm intelligent enough. I have a lot of reliable information at my hands and, no, I will not share the details with anyone, and my opinions are based or solid real facts, and shaped by any extremist political or social agenda, like yours.

You are obviously sadly bitter about something and have some kind of extremist outlook. That is clear. As usual, your ilk will only accept "data" that supports your extremist ilk and when people don;t buy your line of lunacy, you get mad like a little four year old and throw a temper tantrum.

Again, go shoot yourself, you will be happier.

 

[Zoomie1980]

Not me. If you took the time to post your sources, I'd take them seriously. I'd critique them to hell to make sure they stand up to the toughest scrutiny. And I don't mean I'd critique the source, I'd critique the actual article or numbers.

But you'd rather be lazy, incompetent and distrustful, so have fun with that.



Completely unproven assertion. I choose to have as little faith as possible. I choose to rely on evidence, not on beliefs or wishes. Faith will get you into trouble. It will make you feel as though you are in a better position than you truly are. We had faith that everything would work out, that oil would stay below $10 a barrel and that we didn't need an energy policy in this country. How did that faith work out? Anybody looking at the actual numbers a decade ago could have seen that we were in trouble with respect to our energy situation.

Then you are sad little man. Faith, hope and love is all we really need to get by in this world. And I have INFINITE faith in the American people to do what has to be done to get to where we want to go. You do not, and that makes you a sad, bitter, little man. You are mad because people do not do what you think they should do. Good for them. That's free will. That's how we live.

Again, go shoot yourself, little man, you will be happier.