Oil prices are dropping...

[Zoomie1980]

You of course have no real way of knowing that. You can't tell me that if Israel hits Iran, and Iran retaliates, that we won't get involved. I'd say THAT is a gross false assumption. And how exactly does military action against an OPEC country, regardless of who is involved, not effect oil supplies and prices? We already know that Iran will close Hormuz. It may just be their only real way of retaliating. And of course, since our Navy is positioned there, who do you think would handle THAT situation?



Could you do us a favor and provide some links to all these assertions? You love to post opinions and assertions, but you never cite any sources. Not that I don't believe you, but I'd still like to see this, and I'm sure many others here would as well.

Just watch the news and read their web outlets. News of China and India's subsidy problems are widespread. As for Iran, same thing. All you have to do is read widely available military information sites to understand that Iran has no real military capacity to close the straits, we are very well prepared there to preven that and IRan themselves MUST ship oil and their main customer is their biggest ally, China, and they will not cut them off. I am also a former defense contractor and an Air Force Academy graduate and General Chilton, CO of US STRATCOM is a personal friend of mine as are several of the directorate commanders there and at the Pentagon....get lots of good unclassified military analysis from those sources. SO no, Iran poses NO realistic threat at all.

But then speculators are mostly idiots on those concerns and believe any uninformed lunacy anyone feeds them. They watch too much Today and NBC or CNN evening news....

And as for those "news services", there was a spot on NBC last night where the US Postal service announced their intent to replace all their residential postal delivery vans with either electrics or hybrids over the next seven years..... Expect a LOT more of that in the coming weeks and months

 

[Paulie]

Just watch the news and read their web outlets. News of China and India's subsidy problems are widespread. As for Iran, same thing. All you have to do is read widely available military information sites to understand that Iran has no real military capacity to close the straits, we are very well prepared there to preven that and IRan themselves MUST ship oil and their main customer is their biggest ally, China, and they will not cut them off. I am also a former defense contractor and an Air Force Academy graduate and General Chilton, CO of US STRATCOM is a personal friend of mine as are several of the directorate commanders there and at the Pentagon....get lots of good unclassified military analysis from those sources. SO no, Iran poses NO realistic threat at all.

But then speculators are mostly idiots on those concerns and believe any uninformed lunacy anyone feeds them. They watch too much Today and NBC or CNN evening news....

Fair enough Zoomie. I hope you're right, as I care more about having no more continued war in the middle east, than I do about my allocation to energy in my portfolio. I'll even take your word that you know Chilton. He was commander of my USAF Command (Space command) when I served in the late 90's, early 00's. Didn't know he was STRATCOM now.

I guess we'll just see how things play out in the coming months and years.

 

[Ag107.87]

The major false assumption is believing the growth in demand will simply continue at current level forever

I never said that the growth in demand would continue at current or past rates forever or even in the short-term.

I was responding to a response from Charles Main, which stated that it's the Law of Supply and Demand, not Demand and Demand. That seemed to be saying to me that he was trying to show the person to whom he was responding that supply would also factor into the equation, which it does.

However, I was disputing that we'll ever be able to raise oil production. Therefore, ANY growth, whether we're at current levels or not, in demand at current prices would result in an imbalance which would then cause oil prices to rise. Even if there is no growth while we have no new net supplies, then it results that prices stay constant. And this is only for the short-term when oil supplies will stay at 85 mpd. Once oil supplies start peaking and oil exporters start importing in a few years (see Mexico), then we'll need constant negative growth in the demand of oil in order to even have the price stable.

It is perfectly plausible that much of the 1st world will be ongoing a rather massive alternation to alternatives that should more than offset growth in consumption from the developing world.

here will be some rather major advances in alternative over the next 5-10 years. THat die has been cast. Electrics like the Tesla and Chevy Volt are only the beginning. Most auto manufactures selling in the US and Europe and Japan will be almost totally converted to electrics and gas-electric hybrids inside of 10 years. Most US government and large corporate fleets will be 100% electric of gas-electric hybrid inside of five years.

So you're saying that the US economy, which is mortgaged to death, is going to be able to afford to buy $40,000 cars within the next few years? You think that the people would even be willing to do that if they had the money? Hell, we've only had a 33% growth in bikes (which make up an embarrassingly small portion of transit) when gasoline went up 33% in a year and bikes are incredibly cheap and efficient.

And let's not forget the fact that our current electric system is teetering near capacity. We're likely unable to keep up with growth in the base electricity demand over the next 10 years and you think that we'll be able to shift millions of barrels of oil per day consumption over to the electrical system? Can you say blackouts?

Yes, it's certainly plausible that a nation could jumpstart their electric vehicles, mass transit, bikes, etc. within 10 years. The problem is, this isn't "a" nation. This is the US. We can't get a single nuke built in 30 years and we're supposed to add 100+ (guessing here) new coal or NG plants in a decade? It's certainly possible but not probable that the US will shift over quickly, or willingly, to an electric-based system.

 

[jreeves]

No, oil doesn't dictate the dollar. The Dollar dictates oil. Same with any commodity. Gold and oil move together historically, and you don't see gold pushing the dollar. You see the dollar pushing gold. Same thing with oil.

And our trade deficit is being caused by a HELL of a lot more than this oil situation. Plus, I'm sure the weapons we've been selling them have balanced things out just a bit.

Here's a question for you...On a scale of 1-10, 10 being absolutely sure and 1 being completely doubful, how sure are you that there will be some kind of military action against Iran involving the US?

EDIT: Don't get it twisted though. I scrutinize the situation every single day. I'm looking for ANYTHING that screams "get out".

Today, the world consumes over 80 million barrels of oil every day (over 30 billion barrels per year); the USA alone consumes over 20 million barrels per day (over 7 billion barrels per year). At $100 per barrel, the global petroleum industry is a three trillion dollar a year business. Development of alternative energy to free the world from oil dependence will create a seismic shift within the economic foundation of the world.
American Energy Independence
U.S. Oil Imports in Danger

Right now the U.S. is importing over 13 million barrels of oil every day. Nearly 45% of our imports are coming from OPEC, yet as domestic consumption in those exporting countries (especially Saudi Arabia) grows, less oil will be available to export.
U.S. Domestic Oil Production
Do the math my friend that's alot of money leaving the country everyday. The higher the price of oil the faster the trade deficit grows. Hence the weaker the dollar becomes.....

I would say our chances of military action in Iran is about 3.

Re-edit: just don't let the price of oil get too close to your investment price because I believe it will drop quick. BTW watch Congress carefully for the renewal of the ban on offshore oil drilling. If they don't act by Sept. 30th it expires, then would be a good time to get out of the market. Just my opinion of course....

 

[Ag107.87]

Re-edit: just don't let the price of oil get too close to your investment price because I believe it will drop quick. BTW watch Congress carefully for the renewal of the ban on offshore oil drilling. If they don't act by Sept. 30th it expires, then would be a good time to get out of the market. Just my opinion of course....

What makes you so sure that oil and nat gas drilling would even be legally possible in the most productive states (CA and FL)?

 

[Zoomie1980]

I never said that the growth in demand would continue at current or past rates forever or even in the short-term.

I was responding to a response from Charles Main, which stated that it's the Law of Supply and Demand, not Demand and Demand. That seemed to be saying to me that he was trying to show the person to whom he was responding that supply would also factor into the equation, which it does.

However, I was disputing that we'll ever be able to raise oil production. Therefore, ANY growth, whether we're at current levels or not, in demand at current prices would result in an imbalance which would then cause oil prices to rise. Even if there is no growth while we have no new net supplies, then it results that prices stay constant. And this is only for the short-term when oil supplies will stay at 85 mpd. Once oil supplies start peaking and oil exporters start importing in a few years (see Mexico), then we'll need constant negative growth in the demand of oil in order to even have the price stable.





So you're saying that the US economy, which is mortgaged to death, is going to be able to afford to buy $40,000 cars within the next few years? You think that the people would even be willing to do that if they had the money? Hell, we've only had a 33% growth in bikes (which make up an embarrassingly small portion of transit) when gasoline went up 33% in a year and bikes are incredibly cheap and efficient.

And let's not forget the fact that our current electric system is teetering near capacity. We're likely unable to keep up with growth in the base electricity demand over the next 10 years and you think that we'll be able to shift millions of barrels of oil per day consumption over to the electrical system? Can you say blackouts?

Yes, it's certainly plausible that a nation could jumpstart their electric vehicles, mass transit, bikes, etc. within 10 years. The problem is, this isn't "a" nation. This is the US. We can't get a single nuke built in 30 years and we're supposed to add 100+ (guessing here) new coal or NG plants in a decade? It's certainly possible but not probable that the US will shift over quickly, or willingly, to an electric-based system.

It's whether we might or might not....we have to. The country is capable of remarkable transformations in short periods when citizenry decides to do it. We made emormous cultural changes from the 50's to the 60's in six short years. We went from a depression to an all out war economy in a few short years. We went from horse and buggy to an automotive culture in only about 10 years

The nation has to make a substantive change, build coal, nuclear plants to go with massive construction of wind and solar plants, and get those wired up or it faces a catastrophe. We have no choice and I think we will. Gore predicts about a 3trillion dollar investment. We did that sort of thing with a Manhattan project, getting the Moon, we can do this, too, if we are convinced we have to. And with it, oil demand, indeed will decline rapidly, at least here and western Europe.

 

[Zoomie1980]

Today, the world consumes over 80 million barrels of oil every day (over 30 billion barrels per year); the USA alone consumes over 20 million barrels per day (over 7 billion barrels per year). At $100 per barrel, the global petroleum industry is a three trillion dollar a year business. Development of alternative energy to free the world from oil dependence will create a seismic shift within the economic foundation of the world.
American Energy Independence
U.S. Oil Imports in Danger

Right now the U.S. is importing over 13 million barrels of oil every day. Nearly 45% of our imports are coming from OPEC, yet as domestic consumption in those exporting countries (especially Saudi Arabia) grows, less oil will be available to export.
U.S. Domestic Oil Production
Do the math my friend that's alot of money leaving the country everyday. The higher the price of oil the faster the trade deficit grows. Hence the weaker the dollar becomes.....

I would say our chances of military action in Iran is about 3.

Re-edit: just don't let the price of oil get too close to your investment price because I believe it will drop quick. BTW watch Congress carefully for the renewal of the ban on offshore oil drilling. If they don't act by Sept. 30th it expires, then would be a good time to get out of the market. Just my opinion of course....

Not sure where your numbers come from, but less than 15% of oil comes from OPEC. We get almost all our imports from Mexico and Canada and Venezuela.

Oil production is sitting at about 86million a day and consumption at 84million. We have a two million barrel surplus a day and that should get to 3 million in the coming year as demand drops further and then will slowly rise to near zero over the next seven to ten years.

We will not just 100% STOP using oil overnight. In fact we will still be using some oil 50 years from now. But we will SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE our crude oil usage as soon as five years from now as we convert our power grid to coal, nuclear, wind and solar and our automobiles to first, gas-electric hybrids, then electrics, fuel cell or other power generating systems.

 

[Zoomie1980]

Fair enough Zoomie. I hope you're right, as I care more about having no more continued war in the middle east, than I do about my allocation to energy in my portfolio. I'll even take your word that you know Chilton. He was commander of my USAF Command (Space command) when I served in the late 90's, early 00's. Didn't know he was STRATCOM now.

I guess we'll just see how things play out in the coming months and years.

Not saying what I say is going to happen either. But it is at the very least, AS LIKELY a direction as the gloom and doom you tout.

Do we have a nutty currency and fiscal policy. Absolutely we do. But then, I can't remember when we've had a sound and good one either.

 

[Ag107.87]

The nation has to make a substantive change, build coal, nuclear plants to go with massive construction of wind and solar plants, and get those wired up or it faces a catastrophe. We have no choice and I think we will. Gore predicts about a 3trillion dollar investment. We did that sort of thing with a Manhattan project, getting the Moon, we can do this, too, if we are convinced we have to.

However, most people are NOT convinced that we have to do it. This is what is so horrible about everyone going on TV like Yergin who keep saying that the price of oil is too high and that any day now, it's going to plummet. Just like you. So many people keep saying that the current price is too high and that it's going to plummet back to 60-70 dollars/brl or even lower. When people hear that talk, they don't think that there's any problem. They think that they'll have to suffer for a few more months, maybe a year or so, then we get a new administration and new regulations that comes with that. Then the market corrects itself, oil plummets. 4-6 weeks later, gas follows suits and we're back in $2/gallon territory which is fairly acceptable to most people.

When people think that we're going back to the good days of cheap oil within a short time frame because of something that someone ELSE will have to do (regulations, selling, etc.), then they will come to the conclusion that they will not have to do anything and then what? They won't do anything.

The absolute worst thing that we can do for our future is to make believe that there is not an oil crisis. As long as we continue to think that this is just a cyclical or speculative issue that will evaporate within a short-time, then nothing will get done.

Do you see a massive undertaking? Do you see people demanding that CAFE standards be set to 50 mpg? That we make every city have bike lanes and parking? That we ramp up mass transit? That we carpool? Nope. What collective measure do we have? A petition to get Congress to open up drilling and exploration. The idea of a solution in the minds of the American people as we went to $130 oil and $4 gas is that we need to drill more, not that we need to conserve and switch to alternatives. What measures have you seen taken that show a true propensity on the part of the American people and/or Congress/Presidency to actually enact real change that will move us forward? I have seen pretty much nothing.

We went from horse and buggy to an automotive culture in only about 10 years

Yeah, when we had a third as many people in this country and several billion less on this planet. Also when we had a transportation system (horse) that did not constitute 10% of our GDP like oil does today. It's pretty easy to shift over to a new system when you aren't incredibly indebted to the current system. You forgot far too easily how much political power the rust belt has over America. 1 in 10 jobs are directly or indirectly tied to the ICE. If you remove the ICE from America, a lot of those jobs go away for which there is no replacement. The great thing about electrics is that they are low-maintenance. Unfortunately, that means fewer jobs in the automotive sector. Think Michigan will take that? How about Ohio? Oh, and it's not like those are important in the Presidential elections.

But you are correct that we are headed for a catastrophe if we don't change course soon. However, there doesn't seem to be any real push for change. This oil-based economy is a train going at 200 mph towards a cliff and we're shooting BB's at it, trying to change its course. It's simply not going to work.

 

[JimH52]

You guys are far more optimistic than I concerning the price of oil. I don't see it dropping to less than $100 a barrel again. I may be wrong but I have found lately taking the pessimistic side on isuues usually pays off.

 

[Charles_Main]

Hundreds of millions of cars are on the road today that all burn oil products. It will take more than 10 years to get to a point were most cars are
no longer oil burners.


The horse and buggy to car transition comparison ignores the fact, that all these Millions of Americans will have to buy these new cars, cars that cost more, and they will have to do this with out being able to sell their gas burning cars to pay for it, because who the hell is going to want to by cars that are being replaced?

 

[Wow]

Hundreds of millions of cars are on the road today that all burn oil products. It will take more than 10 years to get to a point were most cars are no longer oil burners.

Vehicles only burn 40% of the oil consumed in the US.

 

[Ag107.87]

Not sure where your numbers come from, but less than 15% of oil comes from OPEC. We get almost all our imports from Mexico and Canada and Venezuela.

LOL

Check EIA.

OPEC accounted for roughly 6 mpd of our imports last year out of 13.5 mpd. That's just about 45%. Canada was 2.5 mpd. Mexico 1.5 mpd. Venezuela was 1.3 mpd (but they are OPEC, duh). That's still about 5.3 mpd, which is less than the 6 mpd that all of OPEC provides. So what definition do you use for "almost all"? Would less than 40% count as "almost all"? Because that's how much those three nations currently provide.

Oil production is sitting at about 86million a day and consumption at 84million. We have a two million barrel surplus a day and that should get to 3 million in the coming year as demand drops further and then will slowly rise to near zero over the next seven to ten years.

Show you data and sources, please.

Everything I've seen has shown production and consumption to be roughly equal. If production were 2 mpd greater than consumption, then we'd be sitting on massive amounts of oil in storage. Storage numbers in the US has gone up a good amt, IIRC, but not that much.

Global demand for oil products will grow by an average of 1.6% per year to 2013, from 86.9 mb/d in 2008 to 94.1 mb/d.

- IEA Press Release, July 1st, 2008

IEA is stating, as of a few weeks ago, that demand will average nearly 87 mpd this year. That's pretty tough to do when consumption is 84 mpd, as you claim.

Please, show your sources. Those numbers are simply ridiculous.

 

[Charles_Main]

Vehicles only burn 40% of the oil consumed in the US.

And that fact has absolutely nothing to do with what I said

most of the rest of the oil is burned in power plants, and those too will need to be replaced at a huge financial cost.

 

[Zoomie1980]

However, most people are NOT convinced that we have to do it. This is what is so horrible about everyone going on TV like Yergin who keep saying that the price of oil is too high and that any day now, it's going to plummet. Just like you. So many people keep saying that the current price is too high and that it's going to plummet back to 60-70 dollars/brl or even lower. When people hear that talk, they don't think that there's any problem. They think that they'll have to suffer for a few more months, maybe a year or so, then we get a new administration and new regulations that comes with that. Then the market corrects itself, oil plummets. 4-6 weeks later, gas follows suits and we're back in $2/gallon territory which is fairly acceptable to most people.

When people think that we're going back to the good days of cheap oil within a short time frame because of something that someone ELSE will have to do (regulations, selling, etc.), then they will come to the conclusion that they will not have to do anything and then what? They won't do anything.

The absolute worst thing that we can do for our future is to make believe that there is not an oil crisis. As long as we continue to think that this is just a cyclical or speculative issue that will evaporate within a short-time, then nothing will get done.

Do you see a massive undertaking? Do you see people demanding that CAFE standards be set to 50 mpg? That we make every city have bike lanes and parking? That we ramp up mass transit? That we carpool? Nope. What collective measure do we have? A petition to get Congress to open up drilling and exploration. The idea of a solution in the minds of the American people as we went to $130 oil and $4 gas is that we need to drill more, not that we need to conserve and switch to alternatives. What measures have you seen taken that show a true propensity on the part of the American people and/or Congress/Presidency to actually enact real change that will move us forward? I have seen pretty much nothing.



Yeah, when we had a third as many people in this country and several billion less on this planet. Also when we had a transportation system (horse) that did not constitute 10% of our GDP like oil does today. It's pretty easy to shift over to a new system when you aren't incredibly indebted to the current system. You forgot far too easily how much political power the rust belt has over America. 1 in 10 jobs are directly or indirectly tied to the ICE. If you remove the ICE from America, a lot of those jobs go away for which there is no replacement. The great thing about electrics is that they are low-maintenance. Unfortunately, that means fewer jobs in the automotive sector. Think Michigan will take that? How about Ohio? Oh, and it's not like those are important in the Presidential elections.

But you are correct that we are headed for a catastrophe if we don't change course soon. However, there doesn't seem to be any real push for change. This oil-based economy is a train going at 200 mph towards a cliff and we're shooting BB's at it, trying to change its course. It's simply not going to work.

What I see is every Hybrid and Electric that is available flying off the shelf. What I see are 6 month backorders for gas-hybrids of every make or model. You can't buy a hybrid on the lot today. What I see in my own state are over 5000 new windmills on hundreds of new wind farms producing over 2GW of new electric power and a state that by 2015 will be producing over 25% of it's electricity from wind and the rest from AMERICAN coal. Not one drop of oil. What I see are plans by new energy concerns for over one trillion dollars of investment in solar farms, wind farms, battery technologies over the next ten years. That's a lot of commitment and it's just the tip of the iceberg.

We are in a transformational age just as widespread as the industrial revolution. It is happenning right now. The next Bill Gates will be in alternative energy and the next Microsoft a battery, wind, solar or some other field of energy technological breakthrough.

 

[Ag107.87]

What I see is every Hybrid and Electric that is available flying off the shelf. What I see are 6 month backorders for gas-hybrids of every make or model. You can't buy a hybrid on the lot today. What I see in my own state are over 5000 new windmills on hundreds of new wind farms producing over 2GW of new electric power and a state that by 2015 will be producing over 25% of it's electricity from wind and the rest from AMERICAN coal. Not one drop of oil. What I see are plans by new energy concerns for over one trillion dollars of investment in solar farms, wind farms, battery technologies over the next ten years. That's a lot of commitment and it's just the tip of the iceberg.

We are in a transformational age just as widespread as the industrial revolution. It is happenning right now. The next Bill Gates will be in alternative energy and the next Microsoft a battery, wind, solar or some other field of energy technological breakthrough.

Just because they are flying off of the shelves means nothing. Bike sales are up 33% in a year. Same with scooters. But that doesn't mean that you can expect them to be a significant factor for a long time. Even as they are flying off of the shelves, check out how many are on the road. I bike everyday, so I see at least 300 cars a day. How many hybrids? Maybe 1-3 a day. That's it. Less than or about 1% of the entire market.

What's the production expected to be for the Volt? 60,000 units a year. Not a day, a year. Even if there are 9 other models out there at 60,000 units a year, that's only a little more than half a million cars a year. It will take 200 years to replace 100 million cars (or about half the US fleet) at that rate. Even with increasing in production, it will still take many decades to transfer over because for many people, 40 miles on a charge is simply not enough. Oh, did you forget we're going through a soon to be very deep recession, where most people can't drop $40 grand on a car when they are selling their SUV for 5 grand just to save a few hundred at the pump each month?

For most people, it's not just not possible (due to insufficient supply), it's also a fiscal issue.

Whoopie a whole 2 GW! That's out of 1 TW though. So only about 0.2% of total demand. And you want to put even more dependency on that system?

 

[Chris]

What I see is every Hybrid and Electric that is available flying off the shelf. What I see are 6 month backorders for gas-hybrids of every make or model. You can't buy a hybrid on the lot today. What I see in my own state are over 5000 new windmills on hundreds of new wind farms producing over 2GW of new electric power and a state that by 2015 will be producing over 25% of it's electricity from wind and the rest from AMERICAN coal. Not one drop of oil. What I see are plans by new energy concerns for over one trillion dollars of investment in solar farms, wind farms, battery technologies over the next ten years. That's a lot of commitment and it's just the tip of the iceberg.

We are in a transformational age just as widespread as the industrial revolution. It is happenning right now. The next Bill Gates will be in alternative energy and the next Microsoft a battery, wind, solar or some other field of energy technological breakthrough.

You are right, and it will take about 10 years for us to make the transformation.

 

[Wow]

And that fact has absolutely nothing to do with what I said

most of the rest of the oil is burned in power plants, and those too will need to be replaced at a huge financial cost.

Actually, I was reinforcing your point.
Nevermind, it's too complex for you.

 

[Zoomie1980]

LOL

Check EIA.

OPEC accounted for roughly 6 mpd of our imports last year out of 13.5 mpd. That's just about 45%. Canada was 2.5 mpd. Mexico 1.5 mpd. Venezuela was 1.3 mpd (but they are OPEC, duh). That's still about 5.3 mpd, which is less than the 6 mpd that all of OPEC provides. So what definition do you use for "almost all"? Would less than 40% count as "almost all"? Because that's how much those three nations currently provide.



Show you data and sources, please.

Everything I've seen has shown production and consumption to be roughly equal. If production were 2 mpd greater than consumption, then we'd be sitting on massive amounts of oil in storage. Storage numbers in the US has gone up a good amt, IIRC, but not that much.



- IEA Press Release, July 1st, 2008

IEA is stating, as of a few weeks ago, that demand will average nearly 87 mpd this year. That's pretty tough to do when consumption is 84 mpd, as you claim.

Please, show your sources. Those numbers are simply ridiculous.

Their numbers are simply old and wrong. I never rely government numbers for much of anything. Demand will DROP upwards closer to 5% domestically THIS YEAR and and another 2-3% next year. Globally demand will also DROP by AT LEAST 2 maybe 3% this year and remain FLAT or drop again next year. If India and China have to further reduce their subsidies (and they will HAVE TO....multiple times) then demand may plummet as Chinese and Indian consumers are much more price sensative than we are and we are dropping our demand by 4-5%...expect theirs to fall by DOUBLE DIGITS when that happens.

Find new numbers, EIA prediction numbers are USELESS. According to BP we have 1.2TRILLION barrels of economically recoverable oil left in the ground and demand will peak long before supply runs out. The EIA's predictions on future demand are simply flat out WRONG.

 

[Annie]

Their numbers are simply old and wrong. I never rely government numbers for much of anything. Demand will DROP upwards closer to 5% domestically THIS YEAR and and another 2-3% next year. Globally demand will also DROP by AT LEAST 2 maybe 3% this year and remain FLAT or drop again next year. If India and China have to further reduce their subsidies (and they will HAVE TO....multiple times) then demand may plummet as Chinese and Indian consumers are much more price sensative than we are and we are dropping our demand by 4-5%...expect theirs to fall by DOUBLE DIGITS when that happens.

Find new numbers, EIA prediction numbers are USELESS.

Do you have links to any credible sources to back up your pronouncements?