Odds of GOP Winning Delaware Collapses

From Intrade

chart127901286403440585.png


Before Christine O'Donnell was nominated the Republican nominee in Delaware for the Senate, the odds were 90% the Republicans would win. Now, it is 15%.

That doesn't mean she won't win. Sometimes prediction markets are wrong. However, they usually are not.

Intrade Prediction Markets


O'Donnell pre-primary had about 24K in the bank for her campaign and in one single week she has raised 10 MILLION dollars.

The forces are in place now--the advertising campaign is ON--and in fact it would surprise me if she didn't win this senate seat.

Then you should bet on it.

Currently, you can buy a contract on O'Donnell winning for 15 cents that pays out a dollar. Those are extremely good odds if you think she's going to win. Why wouldn't you do that?
 
I was specifically talking about the Tea Party movement, which appears to be overwhelmingly composed of White folk, fyrenza. Also, if you've read enough of my posts here, you would easily see that I don't fall into the 'liberal' category, by a long shot...

The US is majority 'white folk'... time to bash the country too then, eh??
 
Not this time around. The economy is in the shitter. "Conservatives" strongly agree on fiscal issues. The only time there is major disagreement amongst us is on the "social" issues. Personally, I have no problem with socially moderate Republicans and neither do most conservatives. But any Republican that supports cap-n-trade or Obamacare is not a fiscal conservative and therefore a RINO. They need to get the fuck out of our party. There is a party for tax and spend liberals - it starts with a D. The took over the congress in 2007 and the deficit has gone from 160 billion to 1.6 TRILLION. No thanks!!

This cycle, It's the economy stupid, and Republican Voters want FISCAL conservatives. That is what we are going to have, even if we lose Delaware.

Many "RINOs" are social liberals and have been purged in the primary process over the years. This year its not the focus because the economy is not the focus.

As for not disagreeing on fiscal issues, are you fucking kidding me? Only if by "not disagreeing" you mean "deficits don't matter." And don't hand this nonsense that Cheney isn't a conservative. Reagan presided over the biggest deficits in peacetime history until that time. FFS, conservatives swallowed that Laffer Curve bullshit hook line and sinker. "Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts." That's all we have heard for 30 years. We didn't hear "Balanced budget, balanced budget, balanced budget." Bush's tax cuts caused the debt to increase $1.5-$2 trillion. How many conservatives were up in arms back then? They weren't.

I'm glad that the GOP and conservatives are mouthing "fiscal discipline." Its a nice change. But even today, they don't give you much in what they are actually going to cut, except for "waste" and "Obamacare."

As for the Dems taking over Congress, please show what exactly the Dems passed which caused the budget deficit to skyrocket. Republicans controlled capitol hill for most of the time since 1994, and the Presidency since 2000. Most of the budget deficit is because of non-discretionary programs. Those issues are structural. The GOP exacerbated those structural issues by increasing spending and cutting taxes.
 
Sometimes you have to lose a battle to win the war. I'd rather A REAL CONSERVATIVE lose to COONS than have Castle or any other RINO. RINOs are going extinct. We need to keep it that way or the entire cycle starts over again.......We win a majority but a handful of RINOs hijack the agenda. Fuck that.

There aren't enough conservatives in America to win without the moderates, aka "RINOs."

Not this time around. The economy is in the shitter. "Conservatives" strongly agree on fiscal issues. The only time there is major disagreement amongst us is on the "social" issues. Personally, I have no problem with socially moderate Republicans and neither do most conservatives. But any Republican that supports cap-n-trade or Obamacare is not a fiscal conservative and therefore a RINO. They need to get the fuck out of our party. There is a party for tax and spend liberals - it starts with a D. The took over the congress in 2007 and the deficit has gone from 160 billion to 1.6 TRILLION. No thanks!!

This cycle, It's the economy stupid, and Republican Voters want FISCAL conservatives. That is what we are going to have, even if we lose Delaware.

smply not true on your 160 billion deficit to 1.6 billion.
 
Not this time around. The economy is in the shitter. "Conservatives" strongly agree on fiscal issues. The only time there is major disagreement amongst us is on the "social" issues. Personally, I have no problem with socially moderate Republicans and neither do most conservatives. But any Republican that supports cap-n-trade or Obamacare is not a fiscal conservative and therefore a RINO. They need to get the fuck out of our party. There is a party for tax and spend liberals - it starts with a D. The took over the congress in 2007 and the deficit has gone from 160 billion to 1.6 TRILLION. No thanks!!

This cycle, It's the economy stupid, and Republican Voters want FISCAL conservatives. That is what we are going to have, even if we lose Delaware.

Many "RINOs" are social liberals and have been purged in the primary process over the years. This year its not the focus because the economy is not the focus.

As for not disagreeing on fiscal issues, are you fucking kidding me? Only if by "not disagreeing" you mean "deficits don't matter." And don't hand this nonsense that Cheney isn't a conservative. Reagan presided over the biggest deficits in peacetime history until that time. FFS, conservatives swallowed that Laffer Curve bullshit hook line and sinker. "Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts." That's all we have heard for 30 years. We didn't hear "Balanced budget, balanced budget, balanced budget." Bush's tax cuts caused the debt to increase $1.5-$2 trillion. How many conservatives were up in arms back then? They weren't.

I'm glad that the GOP and conservatives are mouthing "fiscal discipline." Its a nice change. But even today, they don't give you much in what they are actually going to cut, except for "waste" and "Obamacare."

As for the Dems taking over Congress, please show what exactly the Dems passed which caused the budget deficit to skyrocket. Republicans controlled capitol hill for most of the time since 1994, and the Presidency since 2000. Most of the budget deficit is because of non-discretionary programs. Those issues are structural. The GOP exacerbated those structural issues by increasing spending and cutting taxes.

You are preaching to the choir in some respects. Here is the bottom line - CONSERVATIVES (who are not neccesarily REPUBLICANS) are united. We want FISCAL DISCIPLINE. "Republicans" - especially the tin-eared leadership who are not neccesarily Conservative - need to embrace this concept or we'll vote them out. That is what happened to Murkowski, Spector, Castle, etc.. The Republican party will either step up and be FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE or they'll be replaced. It is really that simple. No more games.

Once they have the House back, the Republicans need to walk the walk- If they don't, they'll be bounced out.
 
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Not this time around. The economy is in the shitter. "Conservatives" strongly agree on fiscal issues. The only time there is major disagreement amongst us is on the "social" issues. Personally, I have no problem with socially moderate Republicans and neither do most conservatives. But any Republican that supports cap-n-trade or Obamacare is not a fiscal conservative and therefore a RINO. They need to get the fuck out of our party. There is a party for tax and spend liberals - it starts with a D. The took over the congress in 2007 and the deficit has gone from 160 billion to 1.6 TRILLION. No thanks!!

This cycle, It's the economy stupid, and Republican Voters want FISCAL conservatives. That is what we are going to have, even if we lose Delaware.

Many "RINOs" are social liberals and have been purged in the primary process over the years. This year its not the focus because the economy is not the focus.

As for not disagreeing on fiscal issues, are you fucking kidding me? Only if by "not disagreeing" you mean "deficits don't matter." And don't hand this nonsense that Cheney isn't a conservative. Reagan presided over the biggest deficits in peacetime history until that time. FFS, conservatives swallowed that Laffer Curve bullshit hook line and sinker. "Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts." That's all we have heard for 30 years. We didn't hear "Balanced budget, balanced budget, balanced budget." Bush's tax cuts caused the debt to increase $1.5-$2 trillion. How many conservatives were up in arms back then? They weren't.

I'm glad that the GOP and conservatives are mouthing "fiscal discipline." Its a nice change. But even today, they don't give you much in what they are actually going to cut, except for "waste" and "Obamacare."

As for the Dems taking over Congress, please show what exactly the Dems passed which caused the budget deficit to skyrocket. Republicans controlled capitol hill for most of the time since 1994, and the Presidency since 2000. Most of the budget deficit is because of non-discretionary programs. Those issues are structural. The GOP exacerbated those structural issues by increasing spending and cutting taxes.

You are preaching to the choir is some respects. Here is the bottom line - CONSERVATIVES are united. We want FISCAL DISCIPLINE. "Republicans" - especially the tin-eared leadership - need to embrace this concept or we'll vote them out. That is what happened to Murkowski, Spector, Castle, etc.. The Republican party will either step up and be FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE or they'll be replaced. It is really that simple.

Once they have the House back, the Republicans need to walk the walk- If they don't, they'll be bounced out.

i consider myself to be a conservative, and if i lived in DE, i'd slit my wrists before i'd vote for odonnell.
 
There aren't enough conservatives in America to win without the moderates, aka "RINOs."

Not this time around. The economy is in the shitter. "Conservatives" strongly agree on fiscal issues. The only time there is major disagreement amongst us is on the "social" issues. Personally, I have no problem with socially moderate Republicans and neither do most conservatives. But any Republican that supports cap-n-trade or Obamacare is not a fiscal conservative and therefore a RINO. They need to get the fuck out of our party. There is a party for tax and spend liberals - it starts with a D. The took over the congress in 2007 and the deficit has gone from 160 billion to 1.6 TRILLION. No thanks!!

This cycle, It's the economy stupid, and Republican Voters want FISCAL conservatives. That is what we are going to have, even if we lose Delaware.

smply not true on your 160 billion deficit to 1.6 billion.
Become informed

Bush Deficit vs. Obama Deficit in Pictures | The Foundry: Conservative Policy News.
 
You are preaching to the choir in some respects. Here is the bottom line - CONSERVATIVES (who are not neccesarily REPUBLICANS) are united. We want FISCAL DISCIPLINE. "Republicans" - especially the tin-eared leadership who are not neccesarily Conservative - need to embrace this concept or we'll vote them out. That is what happened to Murkowski, Spector, Castle, etc.. The Republican party will either step up and be FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE or they'll be replaced. It is really that simple. No more games.

Once they have the House back, the Republicans need to walk the walk- If they don't, they'll be bounced out.

I take you at your word Zander when you say you are one of those conservatives who believe in tax cuts and less spending, and deficits matter. But you have been in the minority over the past generation or two, and have been a dwindling minority on the right. That is not what mainstream conservatives have been saying. And I say they are "conservatives" because that's what they call themselves.
 
Many "RINOs" are social liberals and have been purged in the primary process over the years. This year its not the focus because the economy is not the focus.

As for not disagreeing on fiscal issues, are you fucking kidding me? Only if by "not disagreeing" you mean "deficits don't matter." And don't hand this nonsense that Cheney isn't a conservative. Reagan presided over the biggest deficits in peacetime history until that time. FFS, conservatives swallowed that Laffer Curve bullshit hook line and sinker. "Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts." That's all we have heard for 30 years. We didn't hear "Balanced budget, balanced budget, balanced budget." Bush's tax cuts caused the debt to increase $1.5-$2 trillion. How many conservatives were up in arms back then? They weren't.

I'm glad that the GOP and conservatives are mouthing "fiscal discipline." Its a nice change. But even today, they don't give you much in what they are actually going to cut, except for "waste" and "Obamacare."

As for the Dems taking over Congress, please show what exactly the Dems passed which caused the budget deficit to skyrocket. Republicans controlled capitol hill for most of the time since 1994, and the Presidency since 2000. Most of the budget deficit is because of non-discretionary programs. Those issues are structural. The GOP exacerbated those structural issues by increasing spending and cutting taxes.

You are preaching to the choir is some respects. Here is the bottom line - CONSERVATIVES are united. We want FISCAL DISCIPLINE. "Republicans" - especially the tin-eared leadership - need to embrace this concept or we'll vote them out. That is what happened to Murkowski, Spector, Castle, etc.. The Republican party will either step up and be FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE or they'll be replaced. It is really that simple.

Once they have the House back, the Republicans need to walk the walk- If they don't, they'll be bounced out.

i consider myself to be a conservative, and if i lived in DE, i'd slit my wrists before i'd vote for odonnell.

I'm a fiscal conservative.

If I lived in DE I think I would take my chances with Endora, or is it Samantha, before I'd vote for a self avowed Marxist.

I wonder how many in DE feel the same way?? Or not??? LOL
 
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Not this time around. The economy is in the shitter. "Conservatives" strongly agree on fiscal issues. The only time there is major disagreement amongst us is on the "social" issues. Personally, I have no problem with socially moderate Republicans and neither do most conservatives. But any Republican that supports cap-n-trade or Obamacare is not a fiscal conservative and therefore a RINO. They need to get the fuck out of our party. There is a party for tax and spend liberals - it starts with a D. The took over the congress in 2007 and the deficit has gone from 160 billion to 1.6 TRILLION. No thanks!!

This cycle, It's the economy stupid, and Republican Voters want FISCAL conservatives. That is what we are going to have, even if we lose Delaware.

smply not true on your 160 billion deficit to 1.6 billion.
Become informed

Bush Deficit vs. Obama Deficit in Pictures | The Foundry: Conservative Policy News.

no dear, it is you who needs to become well informed and stay away from those sites that mislead you.

i am not going to go in to my lenthy speal again that has been posted... but for just starters the 2009 budget on that chart is attributed to president bush's last fiscal budget that began october 1, 2008, it is not obama's budget. obama's first fiscal budget began oct 1, 2009 and will end sept 30, 2010.

And, in bush's last fiscal budget for 2009, the spending in 2008 for TARP bailout, AIG Bailout, fannie and freddie bailout, goldman sachs bailout, first auto industry bailout, the cost of the 2 wars, etc etc etc.... the $1.5 trillion deficit for fiscal 2009 goes to president bush.

president obama's first fiscal budget will be $100 billion more than the running yearly deficit he was left with....$1.6 trillion by the end of this month which is still AN AWEFUL LOT!

in addition to this, from what i have read we have run out of the $200 billion to $300 billion yearly social security surpluses. these MASKED the deficits under president bush....if you want to know what they truly OVER SPENT you need to review the amounts added to the National debt each year under president Bush....6.2 trillion was added in total to the $5.8 trillion he inherited, bringing our national debt under president bush's rule, to about $13 TRILLION....

there's much more for you to learn before saying that, about me and what i said.

care
 
Castle is a fiscally liberal RINO... Glad he's gone...

I hope more and more fiscally liberal reps (D or R) are shown the door...

Friggin' sweet...
 
For what shall it profit Republicans if they'd have won Delaware but lost their souls?

Many politicians are thinking, lose my soul? Is that it? Where do I sign up?
 

no dear, it is you who needs to become well informed and stay away from those sites that mislead you.

i am not going to go in to my lenthy speal again that has been posted... but for just starters the 2009 budget on that chart is attributed to president bush's last fiscal budget that began october 1, 2008, it is not obama's budget. obama's first fiscal budget began oct 1, 2009 and will end sept 30, 2010.

And, in bush's last fiscal budget for 2009, the spending in 2008 for TARP bailout, AIG Bailout, fannie and freddie bailout, goldman sachs bailout, first auto industry bailout, the cost of the 2 wars, etc etc etc.... the $1.5 trillion deficit for fiscal 2009 goes to president bush.

president obama's first fiscal budget will be $100 billion more than the running yearly deficit he was left with....$1.6 trillion by the end of this month which is still AN AWEFUL LOT!

in addition to this, from what i have read we have run out of the $200 billion to $300 billion yearly social security surpluses. these MASKED the deficits under president bush....if you want to know what they truly OVER SPENT you need to review the amounts added to the National debt each year under president Bush....6.2 trillion was added in total to the $5.8 trillion he inherited, bringing our national debt under president bush's rule, to about $13 TRILLION....

there's much more for you to learn before saying that, about me and what i said.

care
care, the dems had congress for that
2009 was a DEM budget
 
From Intrade

chart127901286403440585.png


Before Christine O'Donnell was nominated the Republican nominee in Delaware for the Senate, the odds were 90% the Republicans would win. Now, it is 15%.

That doesn't mean she won't win. Sometimes prediction markets are wrong. However, they usually are not.

Intrade Prediction Markets


O'Donnell pre-primary had about 24K in the bank for her campaign and in one single week she has raised 10 MILLION dollars.

The forces are in place now--the advertising campaign is ON--and in fact it would surprise me if she didn't win this senate seat.
Didn't she use her campaign money to pay her personal expenses?

I thought that was a big NO NO among conservatives...not to mention illegal.

:eusa_eh:
 
Care is correct. The 09 budget with the $1.4 trillion deficit is Bush's, not Obama's. That was the last budget he signed. Obama's stimulus added $100 million.

In the corporate world, when a new CEO is hired by a company generating massive losses, the new CEO is not blamed for the massive losses. That is on the old CEO. So if those of us who say that government should be run more like a business, why would we judge the Presidency any differently?

Now if the new CEO also generates big losses, he too will be seen as having not dealt with the problem. So too if Obama doesn't deal with the deficit, it will also be on his plate.

In fairness to Bush (and Obama) the massive deficits are structural and due primarily to laws passed before Bush came into office. But Bush is at least partly responsible for the laws he passed which increased the deficit. They are

Medicare part D
Two unfunded wars
Tax cuts

Similarly, the stimulus (which is 40% tax cuts) is on Obama, as will be healthcare reform if turns out to be deficit-generating.
 
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From Intrade

chart127901286403440585.png


Before Christine O'Donnell was nominated the Republican nominee in Delaware for the Senate, the odds were 90% the Republicans would win. Now, it is 15%.

That doesn't mean she won't win. Sometimes prediction markets are wrong. However, they usually are not.

Intrade Prediction Markets


O'Donnell pre-primary had about 24K in the bank for her campaign and in one single week she has raised 10 MILLION dollars.

The forces are in place now--the advertising campaign is ON--and in fact it would surprise me if she didn't win this senate seat.
Didn't she use her campaign money to pay her personal expenses?

I thought that was a big NO NO among conservatives...not to mention illegal.

:eusa_eh:

The woman is toast...
 
You are preaching to the choir is some respects. Here is the bottom line - CONSERVATIVES are united. We want FISCAL DISCIPLINE. "Republicans" - especially the tin-eared leadership - need to embrace this concept or we'll vote them out. That is what happened to Murkowski, Spector, Castle, etc.. The Republican party will either step up and be FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE or they'll be replaced. It is really that simple.

Once they have the House back, the Republicans need to walk the walk- If they don't, they'll be bounced out.

i consider myself to be a conservative, and if i lived in DE, i'd slit my wrists before i'd vote for odonnell.

I'm a fiscal conservative.

If I lived in DE I think I would take my chances with Endora, or is it Samantha, before I'd vote for a self avowed Marxist.

I wonder how many in DE feel the same way?? Or not??? LOL

self avowed Marxist

So I guess you can proivide a link where a statement to this point was made. That is what "self avowed" means. You repubs can throw out lots of trash, but seldom do you back it up with facts.
 
Care is correct. The 09 budget with the $1.4 trillion deficit is Bush's, not Obama's. That was the last budget he signed. Obama's stimulus added $100 million.

In the corporate world, when a new CEO is hired by a company generating massive losses, the new CEO is not blamed for the massive losses. That is on the old CEO. So if those of us who say that government should be run more like a business, why would we judge the Presidency any differently?

Now if the new CEO also generates big losses, he too will be seen as having not dealt with the problem. So too if Obama doesn't deal with the deficit, it will also be on his plate.

In fairness to Bush (and Obama) the massive deficits are structural and due primarily to laws passed before Bush came into office. But Bush is at least partly responsible for the laws he passed which increased the deficit. They are

Medicare part D
Two unfunded wars
Tax cuts

Similarly, the stimulus (which is 40% tax cuts) is on Obama, as will be healthcare reform if turns out to be deficit-generating.

But Medicare A & B and Social Security are fully funded, right?
 

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