Ocean acidifying at unprecedented rate

You think Science and Nature are notably hysterical?

Why don't you give us some numbers with which to refute them?
 
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You think Science and Nature are notably hysterical?

Why don't you give us some numbers to refute them??

I luv me some teachable moments.. The "numbers" don't exist. I don't have them, and the dozen authors above don't have them either. ABSTRACTS are just the banner advertising for the paper.. There's big money in access and reprints. And it's not unusual to do some chest-pounding to please the sponsors and justify your grant. PARTICULARLY in these weaker more politically charged fields..

The way it works -- is YOU CITED IT. So you need to peek in between the covers and SEE if the authors nailed those assertions shut in the Abstract. Impress me with their diligience.

Fair warning -- I peeked -- they didn't.. IN FACT -- the bulk of the paper is an explanation of WHY those numbers CAN'T and probably WON'T ever exist..
 
Everything after the prologue was protected from copying and pasting. So these excerpts have been transcribed by my weary hands on my lousy keyboard.

Ocean acidification may have severe consequences for marine ecosystems; however, assessing its future impact is difficult because laboratory experiments and field observations are limited by their reduced ecologic complexity and sample period, respectively. In contrast, the geological record contains long-term evidence for a variety of global environmental perturbations, including ocean acidification plus their associated biotic responses. We review events exhibiting evidence for elevated atmospheric CO2, global warming, and ocean acidification over the past ~300 million years of Earth’s history, some with contemporaneous extinction or evolutionary turnover among marine calcifiers. Although similarities exist, no past event perfectly parallels future projections in terms of disrupting the balance of ocean carbonate chemistry—a consequence of the unprecedented rapidity of CO2 release currently taking place.

In recent years, a variety of trace-element and isotopic tools have become available that can be applied to infer past seawater carbonate chemistry. For instance, the boron isotopic composition (sigma11B) of marine carbonates reflects changes ion seawater pH, the trace element (such as B, U and Zn)-to calcium ratio of benthic and planktic foraminifera shells record ambient CO2/3, and the stable carbon isotopic composition (sigma13C) or organic molecules (alkenones) can be used to estimate surface ocean aqueous (CO2)

The current rate of anthropogenic CO2 release leads to a surface ocean environment characterized not only by elevated dissolved CO2 and decreased pH but, critically, decreased saturation with respect to calcium carbonate (CaCO3), a compound widely used by marine organisms for the construction of their shells and skeletons. In contrast, slower rates of CO2 release lead to a different balance of carbonate chemistry changes and a smaller seawater CaCO3 saturation response, which may induce differential biotic response or even no response at all, invalidating a direct analog. The reason for a smaller saturation to slow CO2 release is that the alkalinity released by rock weathering on land must ultimately be balanced by the preservation and burial of CaCO3 in marine sediments which itself is controlled by the calcium carbonate saturation state of the ocean. Hence, CaCO3 saturation is ultimately regulated primarily by weathering on long time scales, not atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2). While weather itself is related to atmospheric pCO2 (10), it is related much more weakly than ocean pH, which allows pH and CaCO3 saturation to be almost completely decoupled for slowly increasing atmospheric pCO2.

Using a global carbon cycle model (2), we show the progressive coupling between CaCO3 saturation and pH as the rate of CO2 emissions increases and sources (weather) and sinks (CsCO3 burial) of alkalinity are no longer balanced. For rapid century-scale and thus future-relevant increases in atmospheric pCO2, both surface ocean pH and saturation state decline in tandem (Fig 3). The projected decrease in ocean surface saturation state – here, with respect to aragonite - is an order of magnitude larger for a rapid CO2 increase than for a slow [100 thousand years (ky)] CO2 increase. Ultimately, saturation recovers while the pH remains suppressed, reflecting how changes in the oceanic concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and alkalinity make I possible to have simultaneously both high CO2 and high carbonate ion concentration saturation (CO2/3), which control saturation), but with the relatively greater increase in [CO2] causing lower pH.

Thus we now know how corals and molluscs survived high CO2 in the past. It came on slowly enough for weathering ashore to maintain CaCO3 saturation levels.

The key to unlocking the geological record of ocean acidification is hence to distinguish between long term steady states and transient changes. We use the term “ocean acidification event” for time intervals in Earth's hisotry that involve both a reduction in ocean pH and a substantial lowering of CaCO3 saturation, implying a time scale on the order of 10,000 years and shorter (Fig 3).

The earlier Cretaceous (K) (Fig 4A) is generally a time of massive chalk deposition (mainly in the form of nannofossil calcite), as well as one of elevated pCO2 and lower pH. This association can be misconceived as evidence that marine calcification will not be impaired under conditions of low pH in the future. However, this reasoning is invalid because it extended periods of high pCO2 do not necessarily result in a suppressed seawater calcite saturation state, which exerts an imporant control on organism's calcification.

Only rapid or pulsed CO2 release events can provide direct future-relevant information. Assessment of such events critically depends on independent geochemical quantification of the associated changes in the carbonate system, specifically seawater-pH and CaCO3 saturation. Geochemical proxy estimates are not yet available for the Cretaceous and beyond and need to be obtained to verify whether ocean acidification did indeed happen. This is challenging, because in addition to the potential for increasing post-depositional alteration and reduced stratigraphic exposure, uncertainty over the chemical and isotopic composition of seawater increases and limits our interpretations of these proxies. Future studies will have to improve and expand geochemical estimates and their uncertainties of surface and deep-ocean carbonate chemistry associated with carbonate dissolution and ecological changes. This includes finding new archives to study the secular evolution of seawater chemistry but also the laboratory study of living proxy carriers under condition mimicking [seawater chemistry]. An unfortunate aspect of the geological record, however, is the lack of deep-sea carbonates in the early Jurassic and beyond, which further reduces our ability to reconstruct the carbonate chemistry of those older events.

The sensitivity of ocean chemistry to CO2 release, and the relationship between induced pH and pCO2 changes, vary through time and further complicate the picture. For instance, seawater calcium and magnesium ion concentrations were different in the past. This alters the ocean's carbonate ion buffering capacity and hence sensitivity of the Earth system to carbon perturbation because all other things being equal, higher ambient CA2+ concentrations means that a lower carbonate ion concentration is required to achieve the same saturation and hence balance weathering. Varying seawater Mg/Ca ratios may potentially also affect the mineralogy of marine calcifiers, where more soluble high-Mg calcite predominated Neogene reefs and reefs during the Permian through early Jurassic, and more resistant low-Mg calcite predominated during the Late Jurassic through Paleogene. Thus, on this mineralogical basis the response of marine calcifiers to ocean acidification and seawater geochemistry during the P/T ad T/J would arguably be closer to modern than, for example, during the PETM. Improved estimates of past seawater – Mg/Ca composition are necessary to better evaluate all of this.

Although we have concentrated on the prospects for extracting information from the geological record concerning the impact of ocean acidification, we must question whether it really is necessary to isolate its effect on marine organisms from other co varying factors. In particular, consequences of increasing atmospheric CO2 will also be associated with warming in the surface ocean and a decrease in dissolved oxygen concentration. Massive carbon release, whether future or past, will hence share the same combination and sign of environmental changes. The strength of the geological record therefore lies in revealing past coupled warming and ocean acidification (and deoxygenation) events as an “integrated” analog with future and past events sharing the same combination and sign of environmental changes. However, in additionally driving a strong decline in calcium carbonate saturation alongside pH, the current rate of (mainly fossil fuel) CO2 release stands out as capable of driving a combination and magnitude of ocean geochemical changes potentially unparalleled in at least the last ~300 My of Earth history, raising the possibility that are entering an unknown territory of marine ecosystem change.
***********************************************************************************

I suspect the reason you find this article to be full of qualifiers is two fold: I would guess you have spent too much time reading pseudo science vs mainstream science. A good identifier of pseudo science is excessive certainty. And second, you misidentify the actual purpose of the article. The purpose of this work is to examine the possibility of applying what can be discerned from the geological record of ocean acidification to the likely future of ocean acidification. The study could have found no applicability at all and still been a successful study and have had nothing to say pro or con about the ocean's future.

As I noted inline, this article answers a few points you deniers have repeatedly brought up. The ocean calcifying species (for the most part) survived extremely high atmospheric CO2 because it took tens of thousands of years to attain those levels and, as we've learned, CaCO3 saturation stays high enough under such circumstances so calcification isn't impaired.

The case that the current rate of increase in pCO2 and of decrease in pH is unprecedented is actually somewhat incidental to the intent of the study but is reasonably well established. Catastrophic geological events are the most likely places where a rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification would have taken place. Such events have been well studied. That the current rate of increase is 10 to 100 times the rate produced by the largest volcanic event in the last 300 million years OUGHT to tell you something.
 
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Sorry for you sore fingers Dude.. But you could have just said.. There is NO DATA and there are no numbers to justify such a SWEEPING assertion about GLOBAL AVERAGE Ocean pH --- Millions of years ago.

Was there?
 
Op Cit..

Ocean acidification may have severe consequences for marine ecosystems; however, assessing its future impact is difficult because laboratory experiments and field observations are limited by their reduced ecologic complexity and sample period, respectively.

.
.
.
.
Although similarities exist, no past event perfectly parallels future projections
in terms of disrupting the balance of ocean carbonate chemistry—a consequence of the
unprecedented rapidity of CO2 release currently taking place.
.
.
.
.
.

This is challenging, because in addition to the potential for increasing post-depositional alteration and reduced stratigraphic exposure, uncertainty over the chemical and isotopic composition of seawater increases and limits our interpretations of these proxies. Future studies will have to improve and expand geochemical estimates and their uncertainties of surface and deep-ocean carbonate chemistry associated with carbonate dissolution and ecological changes. This includes finding new archives to study the secular evolution of seawater chemistry but also the laboratory study of living proxy carriers under condition mimicking [seawater chemistry].

Pretty much all you need to know.. I tried to save you the effort. It's exactly what I said it was..
 
You quote comments from the beginning of the article. Why not look at the conclusion again.

Although we have concentrated on the prospects for extracting information from the geological record concerning the impact of ocean acidification, we must question whether it really is necessary to isolate its effect on marine organisms from other co varying factors. In particular, consequences of increasing atmospheric CO2 will also be associated with warming in the surface ocean and a decrease in dissolved oxygen concentration. Massive carbon release, whether future or past, will hence share the same combination and sign of environmental changes. The strength of the geological record therefore lies in revealing past coupled warming and ocean acidification (and deoxygenation) events as an “integrated” analog with future and past events sharing the same combination and sign of environmental changes. However, in additionally driving a strong decline in calcium carbonate saturation alongside pH, the current rate of (mainly fossil fuel) CO2 release stands out as capable of driving a combination and magnitude of ocean geochemical changes potentially unparalleled in at least the last ~300 My of Earth history, raising the possibility that are entering an unknown territory of marine ecosystem change.
 
The question remains: How much CO2 do you have to add to the oceans to drop the pH from 8.25 to 8.15?
 
If you didn't see any numbers, then you need to read it again. http://droyer.web.wesleyan.edu/Honisch_et_al_2012_Science_ocean_acidification.pdf

Really Bullwinkle??

Really, asshole.

there was a record of the GLOBAL AVERAGE Ocean pH millions of years ago with BETTER THAN 50 years of time resolution???

Gosh darn it.. I missed all that.

I invite the public here to go to the provided link and tell us whether or not you find any "numbers" in the article.
 
You quote comments from the beginning of the article. Why not look at the conclusion again.

Although we have concentrated on the prospects for extracting information from the geological record concerning the impact of ocean acidification, we must question whether it really is necessary to isolate its effect on marine organisms from other co varying factors. In particular, consequences of increasing atmospheric CO2 will also be associated with warming in the surface ocean and a decrease in dissolved oxygen concentration. Massive carbon release, whether future or past, will hence share the same combination and sign of environmental changes. The strength of the geological record therefore lies in revealing past coupled warming and ocean acidification (and deoxygenation) events as an “integrated” analog with future and past events sharing the same combination and sign of environmental changes. However, in additionally driving a strong decline in calcium carbonate saturation alongside pH, the current rate of (mainly fossil fuel) CO2 release stands out as capable of driving a combination and magnitude of ocean geochemical changes potentially unparalleled in at least the last ~300 My of Earth history, raising the possibility that are entering an unknown territory of marine ecosystem change.

They don't present jackshit to back that up.. The entire paper is everything they had to leave out of their model because it's UNKNOWN or inconclusive, or unmeasurable. The paper is PACKED with reasons why we will never be able to verify any of their "conclusions"..

For instance.. Talking about the end of Cretaceous Period..

In addition to potential terrestrial
biomass or fossil carbon burning, the impact
may have caused the emission of SO2 from
vaporized gypsum deposits at the impact site
and/or nitric acid aerosols produced by shock
heating of the atmosphere, which could have led
to acid rain and hence potentially to rapid acidification
of the surface ocean (


Because multiple
environmental changes covaried and proxy
data for marine carbonate chemistry are not yet
available, unambiguous attribution of the planktic
extinctions to any one driver such as ocean acidification
is currently not possible.

Say WHAT? Even if you had proxies for pH or calcification chemistry, you STILL WOULD NOT KNOW what ACID was responsible for the acidification for that period.

Here comes the torpedos sailor....

Because of the lack of open-ocean sediments and
increasingly poor temporal and spatial resolution
of the geological record further back in time, it is
difficult to place adequate constraints on the
duration and rate of CO2 release. Radiometric
dating techniques are not accurate enough to
identify Mesozoic intervals of 10-ky duration,
although orbital spectral analysis of highly
resolved isotope and/or sedimentological records
can help to partly overcome this—for example,
if a d13C excursion is shorter or longer than one
precession cycle [21 ky (51)]. Even for the wellstudied
PETM, the duration of the main phase
of this carbon injection is still debated (35, 61),
and model-inferred peak rates of ≤1 PgC per
year (26, 61) could potentially be an underestimate.

TIME RESOLUTIONS ON THE ORDER OF 10,000 years... We done NOW?? There can be no comparisons of the RATES or magnitudes with enough accuracy for me to care..

You on the other hand are free to make shit up and worship all this finely crafted folklore..
 
Additional complications arise because carbon
may not have been released at a uniform rate
and, in the extreme, may have occurred in the
form of rapid pulses. In such cases, the assumption
of an average emissions rate throughout
the entire duration of the pulsed release will fail
to capture the potential for episodes of intense
acidification.

Nothing left but but the life raft captain...
 
The God-DAMNED farmer.

The same God-Damned farmer that poisons our land, water, and air.

The God-Damned farmer that syphons billions of dollars from our U.S. treasury year-end and year-out because he chooses to NOT grow crops, chooses to NOT chop down trees, chooses to NOT drain wetlands, chooses to be... a God DAMNED farmer.

Fuck the American Farmer, for he has FUCKED us in the fucking ass for generations.
 
Land use, subsidies, regulation and inheritance taxes ALL make farming more industrial strength. And that's bad. Because it encourages enviro abuses. But then again.. Govt favors the rich and powerful and well lawyered. Because all govt power makes life impossible for small farmers on purpose..
 
You know how you deniers accuse those of us on the mainstream side of claiming that whatever happens, it was because of global warming. Well, look at this:

You people have spent years honoring the past; claiming that temperatures have been just as high in the past, long before the industrial revolution or even before man and thus, the current warming is undoubtedly a natural occurrence having nothing to do with human activities.

You have claimed that because CO2 levels have reached astronomical levels in the distant past and yet we still have life, that it cannot be a risk to us or any other life form now.

You have claimed that because the geological record consistently shows CO2 rising after warming from other causes has well begun, it cannot possibly be acting the other way round today.

And now here, where NO precedent can be found for the rate of ocean acidification, FlaCalTenn now claims the haze of the distant past makes it impossible to know. He won't come out and say it, but for his argument to have any weight or direction, he has to be assuming that precedents exist but simply aren't detectable.

So, I guess no matter what happened, what's happening or what will happen, human activity will not be found responsible.
 
You know how you deniers accuse those of us on the mainstream side of claiming that whatever happens, it was because of global warming. Well, look at this:

You people have spent years honoring the past; claiming that temperatures have been just as high in the past, long before the industrial revolution or even before man and thus, the current warming is undoubtedly a natural occurrence having nothing to do with human activities.

You have claimed that because CO2 levels have reached astronomical levels in the distant past and yet we still have life, that it cannot be a risk to us or any other life form now.

You have claimed that because the geological record consistently shows CO2 rising after warming from other causes has well begun, it cannot possibly be acting the other way round today.

And now here, where NO precedent can be found for the rate of ocean acidification, FlaCalTenn now claims the haze of the distant past makes it impossible to know. He won't come out and say it, but for his argument to have any weight or direction, he has to be assuming that precedents exist but simply aren't detectable.

So, I guess no matter what happened, what's happening or what will happen, human activity will not be found responsible.

How much CO2 must be added to the oceans to lower the pH from 8.25 to 8.15?
 
How much CO2 must be added to the oceans to lower the pH from 8.25 to 8.15?
Wikipedia: Ocean Acidification

Between 1751 and 1994 surface ocean pH is estimated to have decreased from approximately 8.25 to 8.14,[5] representing an increase of almost 30% in H+ ion concentration in the world's oceans.[6][7]

Off the top of my head, I'd say "shitloads". Why?
 

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