Obama Sinks to Historic Lows Among Blue-Collar Men
Obama Sinks to Historic Lows Among Blue-Collar Men - 2012 Decoded
1. The new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama attracting just 29 percent of non-college white men, down from 32 percent in their most recent national survey in April, according to figures provided by Douglas Schwartz, April Radocchio and Ralph Hansen of Quinnipiac. The ABC/Washington Post survey found Obama drawing just 28 percent of non-college white men, down from 34 percent in their May survey, according to figures provided by ABC Pollster Gary Langer. Romney drew 56 percent of the non-college white men in Quinnipiac and 65 percent in the ABC/Washington Post survey.
2. Obama is also facing weak numbers among working-class white women. The Quinnipiac Poll shows him drawing just 37 percent of white women without a college education, and the ABC/Post poll puts him at 40 percent with those women.
3. Such a poor performance among working-class whites would enormously complicate Obama's hopes in older Rust Belt states where they predominate, including Ohio, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin (and to a slightly lesser extent Pennsylvania).
4. With college-educated whites, Obama's situation appears somewhat more stable. The two new surveys show Obama's support among college educated white men dipping slightly from its level in 2008, when he won 42 percent of them. Quinnipiac puts his showing with these men at 40 percent (essentially unchanged from 39 percent in its April poll) while the ABC/Post survey found him attracting only 37 percent, down from 44 percent in its May survey
5. Both surveys also show Obama maintaining strong support among minority voters (though Quinnipiac records a decline that may be a statistical blip.) In 2008, Obama won a combined four-fifths of non-white voters; in the ABC/Post survey, he leads Romney among all non-whites by 76 percent to 17 percent, essentially unchanged from May. Quinnipiac shows Obama leading among minorities by 69 percent to 21 percent, down from 77 percent in its April poll.
Obama Sinks to Historic Lows Among Blue-Collar Men - 2012 Decoded
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