CDZ NYC on track for lowest number of murders in decades

[rightwinger]

The largest city in the US shows that Democratic leadership and strict gun laws will lower your homicide rates

The third largest city in the US defies your statement.

How is Los Angeles doing?

 

[JakeStarkey]

2aguy continues to fumble and bumble the argument.

NYC has strict gun laws and great police enforcement.

Thus, their homicide crime is about 12% of what it was a couple of decades ago.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

The largest city in the US shows that Democratic leadership and strict gun laws will lower your homicide rates

The third largest city in the US defies your statement.

How is Los Angeles doing?

• #1 New York City, NY. Population: 8,550,405. ...
• #2 Los Angeles, CA. Population: 3,971,883. ...
• #3 Chicago, IL. Population: 2,720,546. ...
• #4 Houston, TX. Population: 2,296,224. ...
• #5 Philadelphia, PA. Population: 1,567,442. ...
• #6 Phoenix, AZ. Population: 1,563,025. ...
• #7 San Antonio, TX. Population: 1,469,845. ...
• #8 San Diego, CA. Population: 1,394,928.

The Top 10 Largest U.S. Cities by Population | Moving.com

 

[usmbguest5318]

The largest city in the US shows that Democratic leadership and strict gun laws will lower your homicide rates

Explain ,Chicago, St. Louis, L.A., Baltimore, New Orleans, Baton Rouge....all democrat controlled for decades, and they all have huge gun murder rates....it is how these cities use their police, how they treat their police, how long they put violent gun offenders in prison, how fast they allow them to be bailed out........it is the culture of the criminal and the criminal justice system, not the law abiding gun owner that drives the gun crime rate.

Democratic Mayor DeBlasio has a lower homicide rate than his Republican predecessors Bloomberg and Giuliani

While that is an interesting metric, as a measure of each man's effectiveness in reducing overall homicide rates, the relevant metric is homicide rate's change during each man's tenure in office.

Consider three mayors each of whom serve (for the sake of easy math) for ten years:

• Mayor "A" entered office with 1000 homicides per year and left with 600 per year. (-40%)
• Mayor "B" entered office with 600 homicides per year and left with 400 per year. (-33%)
• Mayor "C" entered office with 400 homicides per year and left with 300 per year. (-25%)

Given the above fact pattern and attributing the decline in the homicide rate wholly to mayoral efforts (again, for the simplicity of illustrating my point), Mayor "C" does indeed have the lowest homicide rate of the three, but his efforts, holding all other factors steady, are not as effective as were his predecessors'.

While the above illustrates a point, in the "real world" where there are few constants aside from the constitution of the human condition, the reasons Mayor "C" had both the lowest rate of change in the homicide rate and also the lowest quantity of homicides overall. The "law of diminishing returns" itself may provide the answer, but neither must it be the sole contributor to the fact's extancy.

Given the probative insufficiency of raw-count metrics for credibly corroborating a claim about changes in causally multivariate events, it is even more inapt for establishing anything beyond circumstantial correlation between a partisan affiliation and changes in multivariate events having among causes for their fluctuations a leader's political affiliation. To wit, the assertion that "the largest city in the US shows that Democratic leadership and strict gun laws will lower your homicide rates," while it is plausible with regard to strict gun laws, is preposterous with regard to Democratic leadership. [1]


Why did I present the illustration above? Because it goes directly to a tacit theme in post 13. Citing an inapt metric to support a claim is every bit as inadequate (logically, thus argumentatively) as is "overworking" a metric that has some germanity to a matter under consideration.


Note:

1. Has someone already established that there is indeed a causal relationship between the party affiliation of a political leader and changes in homicide rates? I don't know, but I know that right now nobody here has cited any sound, thus credible research that indicates there is.
   
   Might one be able to form a sound argument that Democratic leadership is a factor contributing to decreased homicide rates?
   
   Perhaps, but that's a "heavy lift" and one you've not undertaken in even the most cursory of ways. "The most cursory way," as I use that phrase, means presenting all or part of a preliminary outline of an inquiry and corresponding hypothesis that, were one to carry it to fruition (do the research, analyze the data, and complete the essay) as fully developed essay, it'd merit publication in one of the following journals:
   • Criminology: Wiley-Blackwell
   • Crime and Delinquency: SAGE
   • Criminal Justice and Behavior: SAGE
   • Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment: SAGE
   • Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology: Northwestern University School of Law
   • British Journal of Criminology: Oxford University Press
   • Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency: SAGE
   • Journal of Quantitative Criminology: Springer
   • Punishment & Society: SAGE
   • Journal of Interpersonal Violence: SAGE

Aside:

FWIW, while I don't have a problem with strict gun laws, I most certainly have a problem with weak arguments and lamely presented assertions. I have all the more problem with them when they are presented by individuals whose pathos-based stance on a matter seems to align with mine. The last thing any political position needs is weakly forumated arguments and inapt advocacy.​

 

[rightwinger]

NYC Murder rate drop is tied to their tighter control of guns

 

[rightwinger]

Seems to be working....other cities need to adopt it

New York City and Its Gun Laws: How Strict Are They? | Guns of New York

 

[martybegan]

New York has the strictest gun laws in the nation....by far

They also have historic low homicide rates

A lesson other cities need to follow

correlation, not causation. They had the strictest gun laws back when the murder rates were through the roof.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Causation not correlation. The laws were not enforced as strictly as they are today.

 

[2aguy]

The largest city in the US shows that Democratic leadership and strict gun laws will lower your homicide rates

Explain ,Chicago, St. Louis, L.A., Baltimore, New Orleans, Baton Rouge....all democrat controlled for decades, and they all have huge gun murder rates....it is how these cities use their police, how they treat their police, how long they put violent gun offenders in prison, how fast they allow them to be bailed out........it is the culture of the criminal and the criminal justice system, not the law abiding gun owner that drives the gun crime rate.

Democratic Mayor DeBlasio has a lower homicide rate than his Republican predecessors Bloomberg and Giuliani

They implemented the policy after decades of democrats running up the crime rate, and now he is doing everything he can to reverse those gains....

 

[2aguy]

Seems to be working....other cities need to adopt it

New York City and Its Gun Laws: How Strict Are They? | Guns of New York

Chicago, D.C., Baltimore have the same or stricter gun control laws. and higher gun murder rates...Baltimore has the strictest gun control laws with the smallest population...and more gun murder than new york or L.A......it is the nature of the criminal gangs, their rivalries with other gangs and the effectiveness of police....Chicago and Balitmore have destroyed their police departments.....that is what is driving their gun murder rates...that, and revolving door sentencing for repeat gun offenders.

 

[JakeStarkey]

None of which, 2aguy, changes the facts that NY's murder rate is down 90% of because of strict laws and great policing.

 

[2aguy]

None of which, 2aguy, changes the facts that NY's murder rate is down 90% of because of strict laws and great policing.

No...again, Chicago, and Baltimore have the exact same laws....and far higher gun murder rates...both suffer from the Ferguson Effect after their police were attacked by black lives matter and the ACLU.....they both have revolving door policies for gun criminals....

New York is running on luck...it isn't going to last......

 

[JakeStarkey]

Yes, again, 2aguy, you have been proven absolutely, incontrovertibly wrong about this.

None of your tautological argumentation has any effect.

You end up being wrong every time on this issue.

 

[2aguy]

Chicago and Baltimore...beneficiaries of the Ferguson Effect...Same gun control laws...stricter in Baltimore.....and higher gun murder rates...because of police pulling back due to democrats attacking them, and the willingness of their gangs to shoot and murder each other....

https://www.economist.com/news/unit...est-city-does-not-crime-and-despair-baltimore

Just as the killing of Freddie Gray, who suffered a fatal spine injury in the back of a police van, lit up Baltimore, so the killing of Laquan McDonald, another young black man, who was shot dead in possession of a pocket-knife, led to protests in Chicago. In both cases the police, undermanned and unsure how to comport themselves in a world of mobile-phone cameras in every pocket, retreated. Between November 2015 and January 2016, the number of suspects briefly detained in Chicago dropped by 80%. In Baltimore, arrest numbers have fallen in the past three years, even as the murder rate soared.

 

[JakeStarkey]

NYC, the result of strict laws and good policing.

 

[2aguy]

And when the cops pull back....the gangs aren't afraid to finish off their victims....

Where murderers operate with a sense of impunity, they are likely to commit more murders. “I probably know ten dudes right now who have shot people and never been arrested,” says Mr Barksdale. Another grim indicator of impunity is that, while the number of fatal shootings has soared this year, the number of non-fatal ones has hardly increased.

“Instead of taking a shot and running away, the gunmen are walking up and taking multiple shots to leave no witnesses alive,” says Cassandra Crifasi, a researcher into gun violence at Baltimore’s Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Health. In the absence of effective policing, friends and relatives of murder victims are also more likely to take the law into their own hands—and so the virus spreads.

 

[2aguy]

And then we have the fact that law abiding people, carrying guns for self defense 1) doesn't increase the gun crime rate, the gun murder rate or the violent crime rate....and 2) helps to lower all of them...

We went from 200 million guns in private hands in the 1990s and 4.7 million people carrying guns for self defense in 1997...to close to 400-600 million guns in private hands and over 16.3 million people carrying guns for self defense in 2017...guess what happened...
-- gun murder down 49%

--gun crime down 75%

--violent crime down 72%

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.

 

[rightwinger]

New York City is one of the safest cities in the country

All due to strict gun regulations

 

[2aguy]

New York City is one of the safest cities in the country

All due to strict gun regulations

Yeah...right.....you guys keep jinxing he city.....and with a socialist mayor, it is going to go in the toilet pretty soon.....

 

[rightwinger]

New York City sets the standard for big cities cutting down on violent guns

Get rid of the guns......get rid of the crime