Nina weakens to a moderate and may weaken to a weak event within the next few weeks.

[ScienceRocks]

Climate Prediction Center 2/14/11 update

La Nina continues to weaken and at this update,is up to -1.2C from -1.7C that was two weeks ago.

Two Weeks Ago Update

Niño 4= -1.3ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.7ºC
Niño 3= -1.4ºC
Niño1+2= 0.0ºC


This Week Update

Niño 4= -1.2ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.2ºC
Niño 3= -0.8ºC
Niño1+2= +0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

There it goes.

 

[waltky]

Chances of La Nina 50% in 2016...

Chance of La Nina in 2016 on the rise
Wednesday 13th April, 2016 - The chance of a La Nina in 2016 has increased in recent weeks, with climate models indicating a 50-per-cent possibility of the weather event emerging this year, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said on Tuesday.

The potential emergence of a La Nina comes as the strongest El Nino in nearly 20 years - which has been linked to serious crop damage, forest fires and flash floods - begins to subside.

La Nina is the opposite of the El Nino weather event that is characterized by warmer waters in the tropical Pacific. While a La Nina can be less damaging than El Nino, severe La Ninas are also linked to floods, droughts and hurricanes. “Recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Nina in 2016 has increased to around 50 per cent,” the BOM said.

A worker wades through the flooded 5 freeway after an El Nino-strengthened storm brought rain to Los Angeles, California​

The bureau had previously indicated that a strong El Nino weather pattern would likely end in the second quarter of 2016 and a La Nina could follow. Analysts say a La Nina could impact the supply of global grains, particularly wheat and corn - where the United States is the largest exporter of both crops. The weather event is associated with lower-than-average rainfalls over North America.

While global supplies are ample as of now, the only thing that could change that “would be a possible La Nina”, said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist, National Australia Bank. Benchmark wheat prices fell to a more than five-year low last month and corn prices hit a 9-1/2-month low amid large world supplies.

Chance of La Nina in 2016 on the rise

 

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - just wait a few days anna weather'll change...

So Long, El Nino; Hello, La Nina
June 09, 2016 - The monstrous El Nino weather pattern dubbed "Godzilla" by NASA (the U.S. space agency) is dead, scientists declared Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the El Nino has ended, 15 months after its birth in March 2015. "There's nothing left,'' NOAA Climate Prediction Center deputy director Mike Halpert said. "Stick a fork in it, it's done.'' The weather pattern, defined by warmer-than-average Pacific Ocean water, was one of the three strongest El Ninos on record, along with 1997-1998 and 1982-83. It has been linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods over the past year.

Displaced people gather at an artificial water pan near Habaas town of Awdal region, Somaliland, April 9, 2016. Across the Horn of Africa, millions have been hit by the severe El Nino-related drought.​

In the U.S., it delivered much-needed rain and snow to California, but failed to end the parched state's four-year drought. The cyclical weather phenomenon triggered droughts in parts of Africa, India and Southeast Asia, and contributed to the heating up of the planet. Earth has had 12 straight record hot months and is likely to have its second straight record hot year. The El Nino cycles occur every two or three years on average, and before we see the next one, we must contend with La Nina, the cooler opposite of El Nino, to take place in the Northern Hemisphere later this year.

NOAA forecasts a 50 percent chance of La Nina by the end of the hemisphere's summer, and a 75 percent chance by the end of the fall. La Nina generally brings more hurricanes to the Atlantic, drier-than-normal conditions in the U.S. Southwest, and wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest. It often brings lots of rain to parts of Australia and Southeast Asia, and cooler temperatures in parts of Africa, Asia, South America and Canada.

So long, El Nino; hello, La Nina

 

[waltky]

La Nina not gonna affect climate change...

Cooler La Nina Temperatures Will Not Impact Climate Change
July 28, 2016 — The World Meteorological Organization says a La Nina event may develop later this year, but this weather phenomenon, which ushers in cooler temperatures will have no long-lasting impact on climate change.

The El Nino/La Nina weather phenomenon has worldwide regional impacts on rainfall and temperature on a seasonal scale. El Nino causes a warming of the tropical eastern and central sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and is characterized by warmer temperatures. Indeed, the strong 2015-16 El Nino that ended in May broke all temperature records for the first six months of the year, putting 2016 on track to be the hottest year on record. La Nina has the opposite effect. The World Meteorological Organization says La Nina causes large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which tends to cool the atmosphere slightly.

Oceanographic satellite released by NASA April 21, 2008, depicts a La Nina blanketing the Pacific Ocean near the equator.​

WMO’s Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch head Maxx Dilley tells VOA next year is unlikely to set any heat records if a La Nina does occur later this year. “This does not mean global warming is not happening anymore if it is not the hottest year on record. These are just slight adjustments to the global temperature that occur due to this oscillation between El Nino and La Nina," he said. "So, if a La Nina occurs we might see just a little bit of attenuation of what we have been seeing, which is record temperatures year after year after year globally.”

A Pakistani man cools himself off under a water supply to beat the heat during the holy fasting month of Ramadan, in Islamabad, Pakistan​

WMO says the world now is in a neutral phase, but there is a 50 to 65 percent probability that La Nina will develop in the third quarter of 2016 and last through the end of the year. Meteorologists say La Nina, which brings above average rain, is likely to offer relief to drought stricken areas including South Asia, eastern Australia, southern and eastern Africa.

Cooler La Nina Temperatures Will Not Impact Climate Change

 

[Billy_Bob]

No its not moderating... Don't know what they are smoking or what numbers they are fudging but it is a no go.. Even the WMO is trying to keep the AGW lie alive by stating the coming La Niña is of no concern and doesn't affect climate change (AGW)..

Looks like there are a bunch of meteorologists that are in fear of having their jobs cut..

 

[Billy_Bob]

The cold water has not slowed and it remains full throttle movement. You alarmists are going to be so disappointed..

 

[Old Rocks]

No its not moderating... Don't know what they are smoking or what numbers they are fudging but it is a no go.. Even the WMO is trying to keep the AGW lie alive by stating the coming La Niña is of no concern and doesn't affect climate change (AGW)..

Looks like there are a bunch of meteorologists that are in fear of having their jobs cut..

Silly Billy, the date on the OP is Feb. 2011. Not the present La Nina.

 

[Billy_Bob]

No its not moderating... Don't know what they are smoking or what numbers they are fudging but it is a no go.. Even the WMO is trying to keep the AGW lie alive by stating the coming La Niña is of no concern and doesn't affect climate change (AGW)..

Looks like there are a bunch of meteorologists that are in fear of having their jobs cut..

Silly Billy, the date on the OP is Feb. 2011. Not the present La Nina.

And they were wrong..

 

[Crick]

Astounding. You post data from 2011 as if it were current and when caught, just double down on your lies. Have you learned this from your Great Orange Master?

Without looking up anything I will take a wild guess that the oncoming La Nina will be weak. The normal temperature-based cycles of a world rapidly getting hotter as is ours, is going to tend to a good bit of lopsidedness. Ninos will be stronger and longer than Ninas for the foreseeable future.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Too Funny... Crick cant even look at current data to see that it is indeed going very negative. region 1-2 is again in a major drop in temp. Which means the 3, 3-4, 4 regions will continue to cool..

 

[Crick]

We'll see.

 

[Billy_Bob]

region 1-2 is in free fall again.. Region three is in free fall again.. Region three-four is now again falling after a short leveling off of two weeks...

And the cold water continues to build at depth in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Not looking good for those who predicted moderation...

 

[Crick]

So, you're predicting a strong La Nina. Are you predicting a cessation to land/ocean warming or even a cooling event as a result?

As I recall, you don't believe any warming is taking place. Is that correct?

 

[mamooth]

Predictions are for a weak La Nina.

International Research Institute for Climate and Society | 2016 July Quick Look

July global average temperatures were just as warm as June. The current slightly negative ENSO conditions aren't bringing down global temperatures. Way about average is the new normal.

 

[Billy_Bob]

The drop continues......

I have to laugh at the alarmist drones who keep trotting out their models only to get spanked hard by EMPIRICAL OBSERVATIONS...

 

[Crick]

Show us a model someone has "trotted out".

Like the one the weatherman uses each night on TV?

Or the ones Mamooth posted whose mean looks to be right on the money?

 

[Old Rocks]

The drop continues......

I have to laugh at the alarmist drones who keep trotting out their models only to get spanked hard by EMPIRICAL OBSERVATIONS...

Silly Billy, you spent the whole of 2015 insisting that there never would be a major El Nino. Now you want to tell us what the ENSO is going to do? Do you think anyone at all believes your shitface stories about having an education in anything at all?

There are a bunch of real scientists out there that are studying the weather and climate. We don't need frauds like you and Mr. Westwall.

 

[WheelieAddict]

The drop continues......

I have to laugh at the alarmist drones who keep trotting out their models only to get spanked hard by EMPIRICAL OBSERVATIONS...

Silly Billy, you spent the whole of 2015 insisting that there never would be a major El Nino. Now you want to tell us what the ENSO is going to do? Do you think anyone at all believes your shitface stories about having an education in anything at all?

There are a bunch of real scientists out there that are studying the weather and climate. We don't need frauds like you and Mr. Westwall.

Agreed. You would think after being completely wrong about the El Nino maybe reassessing would be in order, but no. Reason: thought process is based on an agenda instead of facts.

 

[Crick]

Billy Bob seems to have abandoned this thread. Can't think why