Next weeks 2009 election predictions.

Discussion in 'Politics' started by oreo, Oct 31, 2009.

  1. oreo
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    oreo Gold Member Supporting Member

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    Here is a list of the races to watch next Tuesday. Anyone care to make predictions on the outcomes:

    1. Virginia Governor's race (Deeds-D; McDonnell-R)

    2. New Jersey Governor's race (Corzine-D; Christie-R; Dagget-I)

    3. New York 23rd House race (Owens-D; Hoffman-C) Scozzafava-R has dropped out.

    4. California 10th House race (Tauscher-D; Harmer-R)

    My predictions:

    1. Virginia, Deeds is a goner, McDonnell by 10+

    2. New Jersey, this race has tightened tremendously in the last month, but I think Corzine peaked just about a week too early, Christie is starting to move back up slowly and the independent candidate Dagget's support appears to be softening as people realize it is a choice between voting for Christie, or having four more years under Corzine. I give this to Christie by 2-4 points. To add--Barack Obama has been all over the state campaigning for Corzine--Bill Clinton has joined him. The problem--New Jersey is one of the highest taxed states in the nation. Citizens are complaining that they can no longer afford to live in N.J. & they & business are leaving the state in hoards. Is it possible that citizens in N.J are starting to think a little more conservative?

    (If after all this campaigning from Obama--& Christie wins over Corzine or even loses in close election--this will shake the democrat party to it's core--as N.J. is the bluest of blue states.)

    3. New York 23rd. Since rino republican Scozzafava has dropped out, Hoffman supported by Sarah Palin & other heavyweights in the Republican party is a sure win over Owens.

    4. California 10th. This is a little watched race, the republican Harmer R against Tauscher D. Harmer according to the polls is within striking distance. I'll go out on a limb here & say Harmer--simply because Californian's like New Jerseyan's are sick & tired of a big spending high taxing liberal government. To add--Californians recently overwhelmingly voted down a tax increase. So they too may be thinking a little more conservative.

    So--I'll go out on a limb & call this 4 for 4 for the GOP.

    Your thoughts?
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2009
  2. Terry
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    Terry Shut the $%$ Up!

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    Mcdonnell
    Corizine +I think the ballots will be stuffed. lol
    Hoffman but by a nose and it will be contested
    Harmer the upset nobody saw coming.
     
  3. JakeStarkey
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    JakeStarkey Diamond Member Supporting Member

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    Stranger things have happened, and I agree with Terry.
     
  4. oreo
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    oreo Gold Member Supporting Member

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    Obama will be blitzing N.J. tommorrow --guess we'll have to see how many of the disgruntled with Corzine--he can persuade to vote for him again---:lol::lol:

    If ACORN is involved in this election it's a sure win for Corzine. But, it's Saturday night & Corzine & Christie are neck & neck or tied according to real clear politics.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2009
  5. Terry
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    Terry Shut the $%$ Up!

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    Some may think I'm crazy but I'm going to say it anyway. The purpose of having polls close is so that the ballots can be stuffed without attention. This is why every politician dem/rep strong hold state pay so much for those polls.
     
  6. oreo
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    oreo Gold Member Supporting Member

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    I remember one poll very clearly. It was between Reagan & Carter. Polling data showed that race very close up until two days prior to the election. As you know Reagan won in a 49 state landslide.

    But if you look at realclearpolitics---there are a ton of different N.J. polling data. I don't see how parties could buy all of them off.
     
  7. JakeStarkey
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    JakeStarkey Diamond Member Supporting Member

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  8. Meister
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    Meister Platinum Member Supporting Member

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    I smell recounts coming.
     
  9. Sinatra
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    Sinatra Senior Member

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    Hoffman will win by 3-5 points - he has all the momentum now.

    Corzine/Christie - too damn close to call. I will say Christie by a smidge - if she actually wins by more than a couple points, it will be a direct slap against Obama.

    McDonnel has Virginia wrapped up. 7-10 point victory. It it ends up higher than 10 - it will be as much a denouncement against Obama as a state victory for McDonnel.
     
  10. Zander
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    Zander Platinum Member

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    yeah, he was off by one election.....Reagan crushed Mondale in 84 - won 49 states and 58.8% of the popular vote.
     

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