Nate Silver was Dead on Again its Crazy

Discussion in 'Politics' started by rh287, Nov 8, 2012.

  1. rh287
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    rh287 BANNED

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    I really thought Nate Silver's reputation would be severly damaged this election cycle. I mean like so many others, I never dreamed this President could possibly get re-elected. So I when I looked at Nate Silvers 538 forecasts, I thought no way. Seems he truly is a statistical genius and the only one of countless poll analysts that gets it right everytime...so far. Left wing asshole. Forget exit polls or pundits, Nate Silver is one I'll follopw from now on, no matter how bad it hurts.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2012
  2. Quantum Windbag
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    Quantum Windbag Gold Member

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    He was not dead on, all he did was run 1 million elections, slightly changing the parameters for each one, and post the results. He would have been just as accurate if Romney had won in a landslide, and you would look just as stupid for thinking he is a genius.
     
  3. Qantrill
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    Qantrill UP THERE WITHOUT ONE

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    Can someone please keep Dick Morris out of the FOX newsroom?
     
  4. Truthmatters
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    being correct is a crime to some
     
  5. candycorn
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    candycorn Alis volat propriis

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    I heard today in the last 2 elections he's 99 and 1 in predicting the winner of each state.
     
  6. Quantum Windbag
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    Quantum Windbag Gold Member

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    If you dig into his work to see what he actually predicted verses the results you will see what I am talking about. His model predicted the margin of victory in each state, added in a fudge factor of over 10% in some states.

    In other words, he fudged his numbers so much that he was all but guaranteed to get it right, and produced a 96% success rate.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. rh287
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    rh287 BANNED

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    I don't know, he clearly explains most of his methods, some are prioritarty though. I do remember before he started doing politics, he predicted the winner of the next World Series a year ahead ...its was a super long shot...some people made a fortune on that bet.
     
  8. Liberal
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    Liberal Libruhl! Libruhl!

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    So what you are saying is that his method was correct.

    Got it.
     
  9. Quantum Windbag
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    Quantum Windbag Gold Member

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    He doesn't make predictions, he uses a complicated algorithm that projects odds. The reason bookies always win is they hedge the bets to they don't pay out as much as they take in, he is a political bookie, and cannot lose as a result.
     
  10. Quantum Windbag
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    Quantum Windbag Gold Member

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    Only if you think statistics lets you change the odds of being wrong whenever you want.
     

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