Nate Silver, the hack

[NYcarbineer]

Nate Silver said that there was a 65 percent shot that Brazil (missing their two best players) would beat Germany at the World Cup. Instead, Germany scored five goals in the first third of the game and then cruised to a 7-1 victory.

Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse - Telegraph

A 65% chance just means that one out of three times Germany would win. It's not that remarkable that this happened to be one of those times.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I honestly am not overly familiar with whatever happened in 2012. I don't get too much into the 'right vs. left' crap. I'm an independent thinker.

Yes, I can imagine you being very ignorant about pretty much any and all facts.

Silver predicted an Obama win in the +3 range nationally. Obama won with +3.86%.

Silver predicted an Obama electoral map win of 332 EV. Obama won with 332 EV.

Triumph of the Nerds: Nate Silver Wins in 50 States

How Accurate Were Nate Silver's Predictions For The 2012 Presidential Election? - Forbes

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...olitics&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body

All's that proves is that Silver was able to connect the dots on all of the cheating. There were people who used more sound mathematical models.

You don't even know what his mathematical model was.

I predicted everything correctly in 2012 except Florida.

KOS also nailed it, with Obama 332.

Hedgehog Report (a REPUBLICAN website), correctly predicted an Obama win, had him at 303 just as I did.

Cheating?

LOL.

Love the butthurt. Carry one.

 

[LoneLaugher]

I honestly am not overly familiar with whatever happened in 2012. I don't get too much into the 'right vs. left' crap. I'm an independent thinker.

Yeah...and you are so honest too!

 

[blackhawk]

I recall when Silver came out with his prediction of Republicans taking the Senate awhile back his former employer the N.Y.Times and some of the left here couldn't trash him fast enough.

 

[Plasmaball]

I honestly am not overly familiar with whatever happened in 2012. I don't get too much into the 'right vs. left' crap. I'm an independent thinker.

ahahahahahahahahahaha. ...liar

 

[Statistikhengst]

I recall when Silver came out with his prediction of Republicans taking the Senate awhile back his former employer the N.Y.Times and some of the left here couldn't trash him fast enough.

Care to name a name?

I didn't trash it. In fact, since January 14th, I have been progonisticating that the chances are extremely high the the GOP takes the Senate by a small a margin.

So, who exactly is "some of the left"?

 

[LordBrownTrout]

He's good at crunching political races. He's got the Rs winning the senate this year.

FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: Toss-Up or Tilt GOP? | FiveThirtyEight

 

[AceRothstein]

Nate Silver said that there was a 65 percent shot that Brazil (missing their two best players) would beat Germany at the World Cup. Instead, Germany scored five goals in the first third of the game and then cruised to a 7-1 victory.

Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse - Telegraph

You still mad about the 2012 election and Silver making you look like a fool?

 

[blackhawk]

I recall when Silver came out with his prediction of Republicans taking the Senate awhile back his former employer the N.Y.Times and some of the left here couldn't trash him fast enough.

Care to name a name?

I didn't trash it. In fact, since January 14th, I have been progonisticating that the chances are extremely high the the GOP takes the Senate by a small a margin.

So, who exactly is "some of the left"?

As I told another poster I don't keep records of who says what and when on here you can either believe me or not I have no reason to lie about it.

 

[candycorn]

I honestly am not overly familiar with whatever happened in 2012. I don't get too much into the 'right vs. left' crap. I'm an independent thinker.

Gasbag makes you laugh; doesn't he?

 

[Skylar]

Um, what cheating?

And I don't know what you use to judge 'sound'. Silver was about as accurate as you can be on an election without a Delorian or a blue police box. He got every state *and* the margin of victor within a fraction of 1%.

Sounds 'sound' to me.

What cheating....

You can't name any, can you.....

 

[Dutch]

Unskewedpolls.com and Karl Rove had Brazil winning 12-1.

 

[candycorn]

I honestly am not overly familiar with whatever happened in 2012. I don't get too much into the 'right vs. left' crap. I'm an independent thinker.

Remember this?

If Romney wins one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Ohio then he will win the election. Book it.

Howd that work out for him?

 

[candycorn]

I recall when Silver came out with his prediction of Republicans taking the Senate awhile back his former employer the N.Y.Times and some of the left here couldn't trash him fast enough.

Nate Silver is a hack with no credentials. And anybody quoting him is a hack.

So wonderful...

I happen to think Silver is right about the 2014 Senate race as evidenced by the posts I made in March.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...r-dems-are-in-deep-trouble-8.html#post8821458

http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...r-dems-are-in-deep-trouble-8.html#post8821456

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Nate Silver said that there was a 65 percent shot that Brazil (missing their two best players) would beat Germany at the World Cup. Instead, Germany scored five goals in the first third of the game and then cruised to a 7-1 victory.

Nate Silver's failure as celebrated as Brazil's collapse - Telegraph

A 65% chance just means that one out of three times Germany would win. It's not that remarkable that this happened to be one of those times.

Statgirl actually thanked your post; showing he knows nothing of stats. Teams with 35 percent chances of winning don't just thoroughly dominate a WC semi in unprecented fashion. Thank that, Statgirl.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Um, what cheating?

And I don't know what you use to judge 'sound'. Silver was about as accurate as you can be on an election without a Delorian or a blue police box. He got every state *and* the margin of victor within a fraction of 1%.

Sounds 'sound' to me.

What cheating....

You can't name any, can you.....

Dude....come on. It's been how many months....even years now. I know that giving you a dose of reality would be a waste of my time.

 

[Old Rocks]

Um, what cheating?

And I don't know what you use to judge 'sound'. Silver was about as accurate as you can be on an election without a Delorian or a blue police box. He got every state *and* the margin of victor within a fraction of 1%.

Sounds 'sound' to me.

What cheating....

I suppose I could go back and spend the time to find out what you said prior to Nov12, but it wouldn't be worth it. A whole bunch of whack-a-doodles were predicting Obama would lose. And ignored the poll numbers until 7Nov12.

So now they claim cheating. No such. More American Voters thought President Obama was a better choice than Romney. And that is simply the way it was and is.

 

[Old Rocks]

What cheating....

You can't name any, can you.....

Dude....come on. It's been how many months....even years now. I know that giving you a dose of reality would be a waste of my time.

In other words, you have nothing but lies.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Um, what cheating?

And I don't know what you use to judge 'sound'. Silver was about as accurate as you can be on an election without a Delorian or a blue police box. He got every state *and* the margin of victor within a fraction of 1%.

Sounds 'sound' to me.

What cheating....

I suppose I could go back and spend the time to find out what you said prior to Nov12, but it wouldn't be worth it. A whole bunch of whack-a-doodles were predicting Obama would lose. And ignored the poll numbers until 7Nov12.

So now they claim cheating. No such. More American Voters thought President Obama was a better choice than Romney. And that is simply the way it was and is.

Yea, thanks in part to ninety plus percent of the hood 'voting' for him....cos we all know that happened. (Where's a jerk-off face smiley when I need one).

 

[Old Rocks]

What cheating....

I suppose I could go back and spend the time to find out what you said prior to Nov12, but it wouldn't be worth it. A whole bunch of whack-a-doodles were predicting Obama would lose. And ignored the poll numbers until 7Nov12.

So now they claim cheating. No such. More American Voters thought President Obama was a better choice than Romney. And that is simply the way it was and is.

Yea, thanks in part to ninety plus percent of the hood 'voting' for him....cos we all know that happened. (Where's a jerk-off face smiley when I need one).

And that, buddy boy, is politics.

Your man did not appeal to enough American Voters, whether from the 'hood' or suburbia, to win the race. So you shout 'cheating'. Sour grapes, buddy boy, your guy did not have enough to offer the average American Voter to win.