My prediction

Discussion in 'Politics' started by nosarcasm, Oct 27, 2004.

  1. nosarcasm
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    nosarcasm Active Member

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    Looking over the last polls I came to the conclusion that Kerry is
    coming up and probably will win the election. (this is not an endorsement just my perception) Bush has <50 on the essential polls if he deservers a
    second term, the Nickolodeon little kids poll had Kerry up and Rasmussen
    shows a rise of Kerry.

    http://www.nowchannel.com/swing/

    this is a state by state poll comparison. Bush needs Florida (which he might
    get) but lacks Ohio.

    Kerry's campaign runs the explosives in iraq news very well and has
    the President on defense. If Bush can not change the topic in the
    coming days I assume he will loose.

    Whats your perception, sources conclusions ?
     
  2. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    Bush landslide. big red map
     
  3. White knight
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    White knight Guest

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    I’m predicting Bush will win. It will be close but Bush will win.
    Evil dirty tricks win every time.

    How many people are you predicting will stop posting on USMB after the elections?
     
  4. drowe
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    drowe Member

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    yeah that seems promising, but you must also look at the electoral count for each of the red states too.

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/
     
  5. theim
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    theim Senior Member

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    After this new weapons dump thing I am also pretty sure Kerry will win. Even though the timeline provided by the Dems is flaky beyond belief. The truth doesn't matter, only the little soundbytes you give to the ignorant masses matter.

    We recovered after Carter, I only hope Kerry's Global Test lets us survive long enough to recover after him.
     
  6. nosarcasm
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    nosarcasm Active Member

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    the link I provided has Kerry up by 282 to 246.

    I do not see a landslide for either one.

    Kerry is a weak candidate that live only of Bush's perceived weak
    performance in the aftermath of Iraq.

    The weakness of America historically (and that is my German perspective)
    is that the Us is very weak in sustaining casualties. Iraq is not Nazi Germany
    and the Islamic threat is (unfortunatly) not seen as a major threat overall.

    So with "only" 1000 casualties both parties already talk about getting
    out as fast as possible. People have become complacent and dont have
    to suffer for the war effort and react with a "I dont want to pay a dime
    attitude" to the war effort.

    Whoever wins the election has to balance the budget , raise a war tax
    to finance our war effort and if necessary take out Iran next.
     
  7. theim
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    theim Senior Member

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    I should also add that I expect Kerry to win by using somewhat, shall we say dubious methods. With all the dead people, felons, and illegal aliens being registered by Democrats, there will be now way to make sure all their voters are legal.

    If Bush loses Florida he's toast.
    He can survive losing Ohio if he wins both Wisconsin and Minnesota

    Since all those states are dead even, I am not feeling good about Bush's chances.
     
  8. onedomino
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    onedomino SCE to AUX

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  9. Zhukov
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    Zhukov VIP Member

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    Bush will get both Minnesota and Wisconsin, which that count gives to Kerry.
     
  10. onedomino
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    onedomino SCE to AUX

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    What makes you say that Z? MN is a very liberal state. I have hopes for WI, not MN.
     

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