LogikAndReazon
Gold Member
- Feb 21, 2012
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Listening to the latest media chatter, one could get the impression that murder in the US is historically bad and getting worse. As the Reverend Al Sharpton put it, "The time for their talk is over. Now's the time for action, and real change on gun control."
Actually, now would seem to be a very bad time for such action. The reason is simple: the murder rate is historically low and is already trending downward. In fact, the murder rate in 2011 was the lowest since 1961: 4.7 murders per 100,000 people. In only 5 years since 1910 has it been lower: 1955-59, when it was only slightly lower at 4.5 or 4.6.Today's murder rate is essentially at a low point of the past century. The murder rate in 2011 was lower than it was in 1911.
And the trend is downward. Whatever we've been doing over the last 20-30 years seems to be working, more or less. The murder rate has been cut by more than half since 1980: from 10.7 to 4.7.
We can only speculate on what might be behind this trend, but I will point out a few interesting facts.
From 1980 to 2000 our prison population more than quadrupled.
From the 1980s to 2000, the number of prisoner executions more than quadrupled.
From 1986 to 2006, the number of states adopting "shall issue" Concealed Carry permits nearly quadrupled.
While the most recent murder rate is fairly low for the United States, we often hear that other countries like Australia, Japan and the UK have much lower murder rates. If we want to compare countries, we should not "cherry pick." Let's look at all countries. The United Nations collects such data. Out of 206 countries, the US ranks 103 - smack in the middle.You might guess that the Congo (30.8) or Uganda (36.3) would have higher murder rates than us. But would you have guessed Jamaica (40.9), Saint Lucia (25.2), Brazil (21.0), Greenland (19.2) and Costa Rica (10.0) do too?
Here is the list of European countries whose most recent murder rates exceeded the U.S.'s.
Greenland (19.2)
Russia (10.2)
Moldova (7.5)
Lithuania (6.6)
Ukraine (5.2)
Estonia (5.2)
Belarus (4.9)
It is true that all countries in Southern and Western Europe had lower murder rates than the U.S. But it might be worthwhile to parse the U.S. number if we continue to make such comparisons.
In over 52% of the murders in the US in 2011 in which the race of the murderer was known, the murderer was black. Over half of the victims of murder were also black. But blacks are only 13.6% of the population. Put all that together, and the murder rate in the US for non-blacks was more like 2.6 per 100,000 in 2011.
As Peter Baldwin put it in his book, The Narcissism of Minor Differences, "Take out the black underclass from the statistics, and even American murder rates fall to European levels."
American Thinker- Print Article
Actually, now would seem to be a very bad time for such action. The reason is simple: the murder rate is historically low and is already trending downward. In fact, the murder rate in 2011 was the lowest since 1961: 4.7 murders per 100,000 people. In only 5 years since 1910 has it been lower: 1955-59, when it was only slightly lower at 4.5 or 4.6.Today's murder rate is essentially at a low point of the past century. The murder rate in 2011 was lower than it was in 1911.
And the trend is downward. Whatever we've been doing over the last 20-30 years seems to be working, more or less. The murder rate has been cut by more than half since 1980: from 10.7 to 4.7.
We can only speculate on what might be behind this trend, but I will point out a few interesting facts.
From 1980 to 2000 our prison population more than quadrupled.
From the 1980s to 2000, the number of prisoner executions more than quadrupled.
From 1986 to 2006, the number of states adopting "shall issue" Concealed Carry permits nearly quadrupled.
While the most recent murder rate is fairly low for the United States, we often hear that other countries like Australia, Japan and the UK have much lower murder rates. If we want to compare countries, we should not "cherry pick." Let's look at all countries. The United Nations collects such data. Out of 206 countries, the US ranks 103 - smack in the middle.You might guess that the Congo (30.8) or Uganda (36.3) would have higher murder rates than us. But would you have guessed Jamaica (40.9), Saint Lucia (25.2), Brazil (21.0), Greenland (19.2) and Costa Rica (10.0) do too?
Here is the list of European countries whose most recent murder rates exceeded the U.S.'s.
Greenland (19.2)
Russia (10.2)
Moldova (7.5)
Lithuania (6.6)
Ukraine (5.2)
Estonia (5.2)
Belarus (4.9)
It is true that all countries in Southern and Western Europe had lower murder rates than the U.S. But it might be worthwhile to parse the U.S. number if we continue to make such comparisons.
In over 52% of the murders in the US in 2011 in which the race of the murderer was known, the murderer was black. Over half of the victims of murder were also black. But blacks are only 13.6% of the population. Put all that together, and the murder rate in the US for non-blacks was more like 2.6 per 100,000 in 2011.
As Peter Baldwin put it in his book, The Narcissism of Minor Differences, "Take out the black underclass from the statistics, and even American murder rates fall to European levels."
American Thinker- Print Article
