Apologize for free-thought exercise here and for getting technical..
I was thinking that this decade long pause in the Warming could be definitively analyzed to find out whether the IPCC numbers and models have failed or not. Certainly, it COULD be due to statistical effects, but more likely it's due to mitigating NATURAL causes or feedbacks.
We KNOW that the IPCC has characterized the effect of natural forcings to be "minimal". And they have reported the "error budget" in most of the AGW analysis.
So you SHOULD be able to tell when the AGW CO2 theory has officially failed by working in the IPCC "natural" causes, their assumptions on feedbacks and their error budget..
Anybody know if this is being done?? It should be...
I was thinking that this decade long pause in the Warming could be definitively analyzed to find out whether the IPCC numbers and models have failed or not. Certainly, it COULD be due to statistical effects, but more likely it's due to mitigating NATURAL causes or feedbacks.
We KNOW that the IPCC has characterized the effect of natural forcings to be "minimal". And they have reported the "error budget" in most of the AGW analysis.
So you SHOULD be able to tell when the AGW CO2 theory has officially failed by working in the IPCC "natural" causes, their assumptions on feedbacks and their error budget..
Anybody know if this is being done?? It should be...