I agree that the 1864 election — if key battlefield results had been unfavorable — would have gone against Lincoln. Then the North would likely have negotiated and recognized secession. This would have been a disaster for black Americans and for further democratic developments everywhere. It likely would have led to future wars between sections, Southern filibustering invasions of Cuba and Mexico, and quite possibly a future reunion under racial apartheid in an elitist fascist-like society.
Can you imagine a “Jefferson Davis Memorial” in place of the Lincoln Monument? A giant statue of General Robert E. Lee on horseback just across the Potomac River on his estate overlooking D.C.? African slaves in America would in the end have been ground down to dust, victims of slow and brutal genocide. It is truly a horror to imagine...
Sounds like a worst case scenerio.
More likely would have seen a race to the West, with the North winning for obvious reasons, some filibustering by the South, the eventual decline and abolition of slavery.
If reunion ever occurred it would have been after slavery was gone, and with the larger and more powerful North calling the shots.