Latest Global Temp. Anomaly (December '19: +0.56°C) Weak El Nino Conditions Help Explain Recent

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Sunsettommy, Jan 14, 2020 at 9:37 AM.

  1. Sunsettommy
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    Sunsettommy Gold Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Global Warming

    [​IMG]Latest Global Temp. Anomaly (December '19: +0.56°C)
    Weak El Nino Conditions Help Explain Recent Global Warmth

    January 13th, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

    Excerpt:

    The continuing global-average warmth over the last year has caused a few people to ask for my opinion regarding potential explanations. So, I updated the 1D energy budget model I described a couple years ago here with the most recent Multivariate ENSO Index (MEIv2) data. The model is initialized in the year 1765, has two ocean layers, and is forced with the RCP6 radiative forcing scenario and the history of El Nino and La Nina activity since the late 1800s.

    The result shows that the global-average (60N-60S) ocean sea surface temperature (SST) data in recent months are well explained as a reflection of continuing weak El Nino conditions, on top of a long-term warming trend.

    LINK
    ========================

    Ocean and Sun is what drives weather and climate changes.

    The evidence is clear, current El-Nino is what drives the current warming, CO2 has NOTHING to do with it!


    The last time we had a moderate La Nina was nearly 10 years ago, it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time since.

    LINK
     
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  2. edthecynic
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    edthecynic Censored for Cynicism

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    Russia Limpboy's climatologist is a liar like him!
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  3. Sunsettommy
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    Sunsettommy Gold Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    ENSO is not the same as El-Nino, I posted the link to the El-Nino/La Nina data, which you obviously missed.

    "Cold & Warm Episodes by Season

    Link to Previous Version of ONI (ERSSTv4)

    Notice: This page is updated automatically on the first Thursday of each month. Because of the high frequency filter applied to the ERSSTv5 data (Huang et al. 2017, J.Climate), ONI values may change up to two months after the initial "real time" value is posted. Therefore, the most recent ONI values should be considered an estimate."

    =====

    But your chart supports my statement anyway, as I stated: "The last time we had a moderate La Nina was nearly 10 years ago, it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time since."

    Your chart shows the last time a MODERATE La-Nina showed up was nearly 10 years ago. It also shows the weak El-Nino of the last few months.

    Got anything else to stumble around with?
     
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  4. edthecynic
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    edthecynic Censored for Cynicism

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    It was Roy Boy who cited the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEIv2) data and if you think my chart supports your lies you need your eyes examined. There is a hell of a lot more BLUE than RED in the last 10 years and that "moderate" La-Nina was the strongest since 1979!!!!
     
  5. ReinyDays
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    ReinyDays VIP Member

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    Now what does it look like under the RCP2.5 scenario? ... RCP6.0 has largely been abandoned except for click-bait results ... even RCP4.5 looks highly improbable unless we really get busy building fossil fuel power plants where there are none currently (about 20% of the human population has no electric grid) ... I like Roy Spencer, one of an emerging group of atmospheric scientists working to dispel the crazy myths that we find in the media ...

    The second section of your post provides a link that doesn't seem back your claims ... it shows a La Nina event in 2016 and another in 2017-2018 ... and ten years is subject to the dynamic contamination ... you're making the same mistake most folks unfamiliar with the science, picking one factor as the be-all of everything ... and that's just wrong ... everything is connected to everything else ...

    Remember ... the sum of periodic functions is itself a periodic function ... always ...
     
  6. ReinyDays
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    ReinyDays VIP Member

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    No ... the raw data doesn't support your claim ... perhaps you should better define "moderate" ... typically this means "in the middle" and clearly the 2017-2018 La Nina event is smack dab in the middle of the raw data, making it a "moderate" event ...
     
  7. Sunsettommy
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    Sunsettommy Gold Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    You are a truly lazy thinker, since I gave you the link to this chart showing the actual numbers in three month blocks, here is the last 10 years of the chart you keep ignoring/avoiding:


    2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
    2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0
    2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
    2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
    2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
    2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
    2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
    2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
    2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8
    2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5

    LINK

    ====

    Mostly red or neutral since the last moderate La-Nina came around over 8 years ago. Very little La-Nina since early 2012.....
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020 at 10:53 AM
  8. Sunsettommy
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    Sunsettommy Gold Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    In 2016 La-Nina was between -.06 to -0.7 clearly a very WEAK La-Nina.

    In late 2017 to early 2018 it reached -1.0 for a short time otherwise spent the rest of the time in the WEAK La-Nina area between -0.6 to -0.9 clearly a weak La-Nina. Neither time did it last long or reached Moderate status.

    Don't ignore the chart I linked to!
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2020 at 11:14 AM
  9. ReinyDays
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    The chart you linked to doesn't show any qualitative analysis ... it's raw data ... it's up to the philosophers to decide how we characterize this data ...

    You have to define "moderate" ... or your interpretation is capricious and ambiguous ... thus meaningless in any scientific context ...

    I'll leave it to you to calculate the standard deviation, and then express your qualitative analyses in terms of this ... if your "very weak" definition turns out to be a single deviation, then please note that ... and realize that's a very non-standard definition ...
     
  10. Sunsettommy
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    Sunsettommy Gold Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    You are running on bullshit since Dr. Spencer already posted this and editcynic posted again this chart:

    [​IMG]

    Overview

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - a naturally occurring anomalous state of tropical Pacific coupled ocean-atmosphere conditions - is the primary predictor for global climate disruptions. These can persist over several seasons and thereby produce severe regional effects. An appraisal of the real-time status of ENSO is thus important for a host of climate services that inform societal responses and trigger policy actions for water supply, food security, health, and public safety. The MEI, which combines both oceanic and atmospheric variables, facilitates in a single index an assessment of ENSO. It especially gives real-time indications of ENSO intensity, and through historical analysis - provides a context for meaningful comparative study of evolving conditions. The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). The EOFs are calculated for 12 overlapping bi-monthly "seasons" (Dec-Jan, Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar,..., Nov-Dec) in order to take into account ENSO's seasonality, and reduce effects of higher frequency intraseasonal variability.


    LINK

    bolding mine

    ==========

    Methods

    A new version of the MEI (MEI.v2) has been created that uses 5 variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), surface zonal winds (U), surface meridional winds (V), and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)) to produce a time series of ENSO conditions from 1979 to present. The MEI.v2 expands upon the original MEI developed by Wolter and Timlin (1993) which was calculated using 6 variables as proxies for ENSO relevant atmosphere and ocean conditions.

    LINK
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    Here is a link showing only a TWO month block (NOAA shows a THREE month block) there it shows that La-Nino reached moderate level for just a single two month block.

    LINK

    March/April -1.3

    =====

    The MEI Version 2 chart isn't raw data........


    You are embarrassing yourself here.....
     

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