Discussion in 'Politics' started by Bonnie, Jul 19, 2004.
Anyone care to post what they think the outcome of the election will be in percentages???????????
Bush in the 60-70% area.
Kerry with around 25-35%
Nader with about 5%
I like those numbers I hope you are right :usa:
without a terrorist attack: Bush 50, Kerry 47, Nader 3
With a terrorist attack: Bush 52, Kerry 40, Nader 8
I honestly don't think it will matter. but thats just me. I think the more people see Kerry, the more they will dislike him. They will either vote for Nader or not vote at all for the Bush Haters. Some might find that Bush does appeal to them instead of Kerry. I don't think its going to be close at all. The same rhetoric was used looking back at the 84 election. A very liberal ticket, a very toxic Democratic campaign and Reagan won in a landslide.
Bush 51%, Kerry 47%, Nader/others 4%.
Im thinking Bush 53% Kerry 44% Nader 3%
Ps Insein.....did you hear the latest broohaha about Arnold's Girly men comment?? LOL
I think Kerry wins by 12 points. Here's why. It seems to me that there is an equal number of solid Bush and Kerry voters. The flucuations appear to be with the undecideds and swing voters. Well, the swing voters KNOW who Bush is and they haven't committed to him. They have seen him over the last four years. What they are waiting for, in my opinion, is a better understanding of Kerry. In addition, it seems that incumbent elections are usually lopsided for either the incumbent or the challenger. Bush has an approval rating of under 50% which is really dangerous.
Bush tried to define Kerry a couple months ago with a tidal wave of negative ads painting him as indecisive. I think Bush spent like $70 million or so in May to do this. Kerry weathered that storm and is still in the hunt.
Kerry showed in the primaries that he is a voracious closer and he has proven that in his Senate runs as well.
I am making all these assumptions in a relatively stable event timeline. If things get demonstrably better in Iraq, or the people start feeling the economic recovery, I could be wrong. I also think Nadar is going to bow out because he can't get on enough ballots.
See the thread on the topic. Yes i have. :rotflmao:
I beg to differ. Bush has been the one in the onslaught since last December. 27 Hate-Bush Books, constant media coverage of Said books, MM propaganda piece praised by the media, Hollywood elites sounding off every chance they get, Democratic Candidates get front page coverage and headline stories on TV and yet Bush still leads in the Polls? Even recently, Kerry names Edwards to the campaign which usually boosts the challeneger a good 10 points at the least. Instead they find that Kerry has dropped 12 in Edwards home state of NC.
Bush hasnt even really unleashed his ad campaign. He hasnt had to. Kerry continues to try and define who he is for the american people. The DNC in NY is going to spend the whole first day defining John kerry. Shouldnt they know who he is by now?
I think the Dems are in deep trouble.
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