But after bottoming out on October 8, when the prediction markets gave him a 48 percent chance of winning re-election, Obama has slowly and steadily climbed back to his August levels. His current odds, computed as an average of Intrade and Betfair, give him a 51.4 percent chance to win.
Obama's poll results and approval ratings are ticking up now, too. While it's tempting to credit scandals (exhibit C and G) or infighting among Obama's potential Republican rivals, or Republican stubbornness in the ongoing deficit reduction debate, the simplest explanation harkens back to the signature phrase of Bill Clinton's first presidential campaign, "It's the economy, stupid."
I know that polls and opinions change but Obama WILL be re-elected if the economy picks up.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/why-obama-underdog-october-favorite-once-more-190454967.html