Is This Right?

[william the wie]

Hillary is facing an opponent in Trump who can and will have her at net -50 by election day. Trump with even higher negatives will not win many states because there are several conservative 3rd parties with presidential candidates but few if any congressional or senatorial candidates. Combined with 3rd party votes the Rs are more likely to retain both houses.

Afterall Hillary simply needs one vote more than the highest polling opponent to win a state and while that is also true house and senate candidates but the Ds running for those offices will almost always be facing a unified opposition and will lose because so many Ds will be either disgusted or complacent about the choice at the top.

Sound right?

 

[jwoodie]

I think Trump will beat Hillary (if she is nominated*), but many of his supporters will not vote for down ticket GOP establishment types. In that event, we could have a GOP House and Democratic Senate for Trump to negotiate with.

*Hillary's negatives are already in free fall. I rate her chances at 50/50, with Sanders and Biden each at 25/75. They would both pick Elizabeth Warren as VP. And possibly win.

 

[DarkFury]

I think Trump will win but the R's opposing Trump will take a beating badly. I expect 3rd party to win those areas.

 

[william the wie]

I think Trump will win but the R's opposing Trump will take a beating badly. I expect 3rd party to win those areas.

If a 3rd party nominated someone down ticket back when they could, which is not likely.

 

[DarkFury]

I think Trump will win but the R's opposing Trump will take a beating badly. I expect 3rd party to win those areas.

If a 3rd party nominated someone down ticket back when they could, which is not likely.

S. Carolina has a lot of Tea Party members in office. In areas where the 3rd party is strong I expect to see more. Seattle has a communist counsel member. So its possible.

Kshama Sawant - Council | seattle.gov

 

[william the wie]

I think Trump will beat Hillary (if she is nominated*), but many of his supporters will not vote for down ticket GOP establishment types. In that event, we could have a GOP House and Democratic Senate for Trump to negotiate with.

Possible but unlikely

*Hillary's negatives are already in free fall. I rate her chances at 50/50, with Sanders and Biden each at 25/75. They would both pick Elizabeth Warren as VP. And possibly win.

No, the Unisex bathroom idea sounds bad when a woman advocates it and worse when a man does

 

[DarkFury]

I think Trump will beat Hillary (if she is nominated*), but many of his supporters will not vote for down ticket GOP establishment types. In that event, we could have a GOP House and Democratic Senate for Trump to negotiate with.

Possible but unlikely

*Hillary's negatives are already in free fall. I rate her chances at 50/50, with Sanders and Biden each at 25/75. They would both pick Elizabeth Warren as VP. And possibly win.

No, the Unisex bathroom idea sounds bad when a woman advocates it and worse when a man does

Hillary is really stuck with choosing a VP.
A woman would come off as sexist.
A Negro or Hispanic as pandering.
And turning Bernie away? Say good bye yo 40% of the votes.

 

[william the wie]

I think Trump will win but the R's opposing Trump will take a beating badly. I expect 3rd party to win those areas.

If a 3rd party nominated someone down ticket back when they could, which is not likely.

S. Carolina has a lot of Tea Party members in office. In areas where the 3rd party is strong I expect to see more. Seattle has a communist counsel member. So its possible.

Kshama Sawant - Council | seattle.gov

I agree that it is possible and the Democratic party caucuses with 3rd party senators right now. Likewise the Rs caucuses with the TEA party in the house but unless they have already won the R primary they wpm't be on the ballot.

 

[william the wie]

I think Trump will beat Hillary (if she is nominated*), but many of his supporters will not vote for down ticket GOP establishment types. In that event, we could have a GOP House and Democratic Senate for Trump to negotiate with.

Possible but unlikely

*Hillary's negatives are already in free fall. I rate her chances at 50/50, with Sanders and Biden each at 25/75. They would both pick Elizabeth Warren as VP. And possibly win.

No, the Unisex bathroom idea sounds bad when a woman advocates it and worse when a man does

Hillary is really stuck with choosing a VP.
A woman would come off as sexist.
A Negro or Hispanic as pandering.
And turning Bernie away? Say good bye yo 40% of the votes.

I totally agree on your point but then she loses her Wall Street backers who are financing her campaign if she does take him. And her golden parachute shreds if that happens, not to mention all the money that will flow to Trump's PACs.

 

[DarkFury]

I think Trump will beat Hillary (if she is nominated*), but many of his supporters will not vote for down ticket GOP establishment types. In that event, we could have a GOP House and Democratic Senate for Trump to negotiate with.

Possible but unlikely

*Hillary's negatives are already in free fall. I rate her chances at 50/50, with Sanders and Biden each at 25/75. They would both pick Elizabeth Warren as VP. And possibly win.

No, the Unisex bathroom idea sounds bad when a woman advocates it and worse when a man does

Hillary is really stuck with choosing a VP.
A woman would come off as sexist.
A Negro or Hispanic as pandering.
And turning Bernie away? Say good bye yo 40% of the votes.

I totally agree on your point but then she loses her Wall Street backers who are financing her campaign if she does take him. And her golden parachute shreds if that happens, not to mention all the money that will flow to Trump's PACs.

The key like money is control. If a 3rd party took just 15% of the house or senate they would be the power brokers. They don't need mass numbers to control, just enough to be the swing.

 

[Pop23]

I think Trump will beat Hillary (if she is nominated*), but many of his supporters will not vote for down ticket GOP establishment types. In that event, we could have a GOP House and Democratic Senate for Trump to negotiate with.

Possible but unlikely

*Hillary's negatives are already in free fall. I rate her chances at 50/50, with Sanders and Biden each at 25/75. They would both pick Elizabeth Warren as VP. And possibly win.

No, the Unisex bathroom idea sounds bad when a woman advocates it and worse when a man does

Hillary is really stuck with choosing a VP.
A woman would come off as sexist.
A Negro or Hispanic as pandering.
And turning Bernie away? Say good bye yo 40% of the votes.

I know a sanders delegate and I asked how he would vote if Sanders isn't selected. I was stunned to hear that he would not vote at all. His GF said the same.

I then asked the question, what if he's VP?

Same answer. He told me that they hate her so much that they would never vote for her. He also said that most Sanders voters he knows feel pretty much the same way

 

[william the wie]

I think the one thing wrong with Trump's strategy is like Perot he's only in the race to get another payoff like Perot's airport in TX.

 

[william the wie]

I think Trump will beat Hillary (if she is nominated*), but many of his supporters will not vote for down ticket GOP establishment types. In that event, we could have a GOP House and Democratic Senate for Trump to negotiate with.

Possible but unlikely

*Hillary's negatives are already in free fall. I rate her chances at 50/50, with Sanders and Biden each at 25/75. They would both pick Elizabeth Warren as VP. And possibly win.

No, the Unisex bathroom idea sounds bad when a woman advocates it and worse when a man does

Hillary is really stuck with choosing a VP.
A woman would come off as sexist.
A Negro or Hispanic as pandering.
And turning Bernie away? Say good bye yo 40% of the votes.

I totally agree on your point but then she loses her Wall Street backers who are financing her campaign if she does take him. And her golden parachute shreds if that happens, not to mention all the money that will flow to Trump's PACs.

The key like money is control. If a 3rd party took just 15% of the house or senate they would be the power brokers. They don't need mass numbers to control, just enough to be the swing.

True but would both major parties survive or would one of them go the way of the Whigs and Federalists? I would bet on the latter.

 

[william the wie]

I think Trump will beat Hillary (if she is nominated*), but many of his supporters will not vote for down ticket GOP establishment types. In that event, we could have a GOP House and Democratic Senate for Trump to negotiate with.

Possible but unlikely

*Hillary's negatives are already in free fall. I rate her chances at 50/50, with Sanders and Biden each at 25/75. They would both pick Elizabeth Warren as VP. And possibly win.

No, the Unisex bathroom idea sounds bad when a woman advocates it and worse when a man does

Hillary is really stuck with choosing a VP.
A woman would come off as sexist.
A Negro or Hispanic as pandering.
And turning Bernie away? Say good bye yo 40% of the votes.

I know a sanders delegate and I asked how he would vote if Sanders isn't selected. I was stunned to hear that he would not vote at all. His GF said the same.

I then asked the question, what if he's VP?

Same answer. He told me that they hate her so much that they would never vote for her. He also said that most Sanders voters he knows feel pretty much the same way

Didn't know that but now that you point it out it makes sense.

 

[william the wie]

Trump lost some street cred yesterday meeting with Ryan.

 

[Markle]

Impossible for Bernie Sanders to be Crooked Hillary Clinton's VP nominee. He has already pulled her so far to the left, she desperately needs someone to the right to help her back to the center. That is presuming she is not indicted, which could easily happen.

 

[Markle]

Trump lost some street cred yesterday meeting with Ryan.

Not at all. Everyone's goal is to beat the Democrats and rescue America. Crooked Hillary Clinton is nothing more than another four years of the failed policies and doctrines of Lame Duck President Barack Hussein Obama.

 

[william the wie]

The FBI could do more damage and keep her in the race by revoking her security clerance